009
FXUS64 KAMA 090526
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Surface winds have been light and variable around the combined
Panhandles this morning with a stalled surface boundary (cold
front) over the area. This boundary is to retreat to the
northeast late this afternoon with westerly winds picking up to
potentially 20 mph gusting 30 mph for the southwest TX Panhandle
for a few hours this evening. The front in the north is progged to
push south late tonight with northerly winds overtaking the area.
The main push of CAA advection behind this front is expected
tomorrow, but also the upsloping winds will help keep
temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow with highs in the upper
60s across the northwestern combined Panhandles and 70s over the
rest of the combined Panhandles. Tomorrow afternoon surface winds
are progged to become more easterly with the southern half of the
Texas Panhandle seeing winds pick up to around 20 mph. Besides
some breezy winds and temperatures turning cooler tomorrow,
overall the weather is expected to be benign in the short term.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A large upper level low will be found over the Great Basin on
Friday. The Panhandles will be in a zonal to somewhat southwest flow
aloft ahead of this low.

As the low moves across the 4-corners region, the flow aloft will
become increasingly southwest through the weekend. Then the upper
level low is expected to track east across southeast Colorado and
southwest Kansas Sunday night into Monday. The models are in fairly
good agreement on the track of the upper low, but they disagree on
the the strength and speed of the low.

Showers and thunderstorms may start as early as Friday evening in
the west and showers and storms may linger as late as early Tuesday
morning in the east.  Another system in the northwest flow aloft may
bring some showers and storms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
As the event gets closer, the time window for rain will likely
shrink as models come into better agreement with the speed of the
upper level low.  Latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the
Panhandles have a 50 to 60 percent probability of seeing at least
0.5" of rain from Friday through Monday night.  There could be a
severe storm or two during this forecast, but it does not look like
a favorable set up for days and days of severe weather in the
Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will likely persist with this TAF issuance. East
winds are forecast through most of the next 24 hours. Gusts during
the daytime hours could be up to 20 to 25 kts. The gusts should
drop off after 00z at the sites. High clouds are forecast to move
over the terminals. There is a low chance (10-15 percent) of a
shower or storm impacting KDHT/KGUY late in this TAF period,
confidence is not high enough to include at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  47  72  50 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  76  44  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              68  43  68  46 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  77  49  77  51 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              75  47  74  51 /  10  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  73  47  72  49 /  10  10   0  10
Clarendon TX               74  50  74  52 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 70  43  70  45 /  10  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  72  44  73  47 /  10   0   0  10
Hereford TX                75  47  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                76  48  77  51 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   74  47  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                76  50  76  52 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              77  51  76  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05