Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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328 FXUS61 KBUF 110645 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 245 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather will remain in place through the weekend. Mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers will persist across north central NY overnight through Saturday. Further west, dry conditions will turn wet as a cold front moves through the region Saturday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Showers will linger across the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with patchy valley fog across western NY late tonight. Quite the opposite on the east side of the forecast area with clouds and showers east of the Genesee Valley into the North Country. While a progressive shortwave ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This scenario will be accompanied by a wedge of dry mid level air that will bring an end to the rain in most areas while promoting some clearing...mainly over the western counties. A ribbon of vorticity along an inverted trough may bring an uptick in shower activity toward daybreak east of Lake Ontario. A robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. A swath of deep moisture ahead of this system will push across the western counties during the midday and afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day and Saturday night. The resulting lift supplied by moderate hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could even be a thunderstorm over the western counties. The most widespread and persistent shower activity will be over the western counties during the afternoon. Dry weather with some sunshine can even be expected for the Finger Lakes before conditions deteriorate. It will remain cool...as temperatures on Saturday will top out within a few degrees of 60. Showery weather will then linger through much of Saturday night...as the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across our region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning as a mid-level low crosses the region. Showers will diminish from west to east as the mid-level vacates the region Sunday afternoon/evening. A cooler airmass will linger across the region will afternoon highs only reaching the lower 60s, with upper 50s across higher terrain. Dry weather returns Sunday night as shortwave ridging builds in behind the departing mid-level low. Warmer conditions develop Monday ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s within the warm sector. The nearing cold front will increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing and diurnal instability increase. Showers and thunderstorms chances will continue Monday night as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central Plains Friday. Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday, supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead. As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday night thorugh much of Thursday. The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through Friday as warm front approaches the area. Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures will have rebounded to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions across western and north central NY late tonight. Valley fog is developing across interior portions of the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region and IFR conditions may reach KJHW late tonight into Saturday morning. Further northeast, ceilings should stay above 5k feet at KART overnight, however nearby sites (KGTB) closer to the Tug Hill are MVFR. A cold front will approach the region Saturday. Regional radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms across Lower Michigan late tonight. This activity will likely expand as it moves into western NY Saturday afternoon. Additional showers will develop across north central NY Saturday ahead of the front. VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers move into western NY Saturday afternoon. Widespread MVFR conditions are most likely with IFR conditions across the higher terrain including KJHW late Saturday evening. VFR conditions will likely remain at KART for much of Saturday. Flight conditions will likely become MVFR late Saturday evening. Outlook... Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in coverage. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting. && .MARINE... Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK/RSH/SW SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...HSK MARINE...JM/TMA