447
FXUS62 KCHS 281957
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
357 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through late Tuesday. A weak cold front
could approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Aloft, the axis of a mid-upper lvl ridge will remain
extended across the Southeast. At the sfc, the local area will
remain along the western periphery of high pressure centered across
the western Atlantic. The pattern will favor dry conditions with
clouds across the area dissipating early evening, setting up
favorable radiational cooling conditions as winds decouple under
mainly clear skies overnight. In general, temps will be a few
degrees cooler than the previous night, dipping into the mid 50s
inland to low-mid 60s near the coast. Approaching daybreak, there
remains sufficient low-level moisture to produce some stratus or
stratocumulus within a light onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail on Monday, while at the surface the
region will be positioned under the western periphery of high
pressure centered over the Atlantic waters. Quiet weather is
expected on Monday, with high temperatures reaching into the upper
70s directly along the beaches and low to mid 80s elsewhere.

The ridging aloft will shift offshore on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough ripples across the southeastern states. Models are indicating
that the shortwave will possess enough forcing and moisture to spur
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening, mainly across inland locations. High
temperatures will once again reach into the low to mid 80s.

Weak ridging aloft will build back into the region on Wednesday as
the shortwave ejects off the Mid Atlantic coast. A well defined sea
breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon hours, which could
spawn isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will continue to warm, with highs reaching into the upper 80s away
from the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridging to almost zonal flow will develop aloft, while high
pressure prevails at the surface. Another shortwave trough is
forecast to swing across the southeastern states Friday, possibly
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
region. Otherwise, quiet conditions with above normal temperatures
are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18Z Monday. An onshore flow might generate some MVFR
ceilings late tonight. But highest probabilities are inland, so
no mention in the latest set of TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic will
extend across local waters, resulting in mainly quiet weather
conditions. Long fetch over the past few days will support seas up
to 5-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters for the next few hours, but
are expected to subside to below Small Craft Advisory levels by 6
PM. Otherwise, expect winds/seas to remain below advisory criteria
across nearshore waters with seas as high as 3-5 ft early, subsiding
to 2-4 ft this evening. East-southeast winds should gust no higher
than 10-15 kt early evening, then decrease to 10 kt or less by
midnight.

Monday through Thursday: With high pressure prevailing aloft,
generally quiet marine conditions are expected through the period.
Seas are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft across the marine zones.
Winds will be out of the SE to SW, generally around 10 knots. Each
afternoon a sea breeze is expected to form, which could produce some
gusty winds along the coastline and in the Charleston Harbor. Some
gusts could approach 20 knots.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds and small swells will lead to a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at all beaches into early evening.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/DPB
MARINE...CPM/DPB