Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170909
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
509 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will remain over the Great Lakes region today. A
reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Monday.
A weak low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will continue southeast of the area and strong cold
air advection will persist across the region today as a surface
trough remains. General lift across the region and the colder
area aloft will support some isolated to scattered precipitation
with clouds slowly filling in across the area. Precipitation
will be transitional through the day with rain favored earlier
and eventually changing to snow by afternoon and evening with
850 mb temperatures falling to -8C by 00z. Temperatures are
going to do very little today with the CAA regime and high
temperatures may have already been achieved early this AM for
most with the lower 40s being the max for the day.

For tonight into Monday, snow showers are expected across the
region with the arrival of a supportive upper trough and 850 mb
temperatures settling into the -10 to -12C range. However, the
lack of deeper moisture across the region may limit the best
snow chances to be downwind of Lake Erie and marginal near
surface temperatures may further limit snow accumulation to
higher elevations where the slight lift assistance may allow for
briefly more efficient snowfall. More widespread snow may occur
on Monday as a reinforcing cold front will move across the
forecast area in concert with the upper trough axis. All in all,
have scattered snow chances with any likely or categorical PoPs
being limited to the Lake Erie snow belt and with the cold front
on Monday. Overall, accumulations in the snow belt should be an
inch or two, but interior NW PA could eek out 3 inches, if
squalls persist and snow accumulations overcome the warm surface
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA during this period. At the surface, a weak ridge
traverses our region from west to east Monday night through Tuesday
morning. Later Tuesday through Wednesday, a trough should impact our
area and a reinforcing cold front should sweep generally E`ward
through northern OH and NW PA Tuesday night. Wednesday night should
feature a ridge beginning to build from the Canadian Prairies.
Primarily partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected due to
moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave trough axes and
persistent lake-effect cloud cover over/downwind of Lake Erie.
Overnight lows should reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s Monday night.
Tuesday afternoon`s highs should reach 35F to 40F in NW PA and the
40`s in northern OH. Tuesday night`s lows are forecast to reach the
upper 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak Wednesday. Highs should reach
the upper 30`s to mid 40`s Wednesday afternoon. As low-level CAA
continues behind the aforementioned cold front, Wednesday night is
expected to be noticeably colder. Lows should reach the upper teens
to lower 20`s in NW PA and the lower to mid 20`s in OH.

Periods of lake-effect precip are expected to impact NE OH and NW PA
as synoptic low-level moisture remains sufficient, lake surface to
850 mb temperature differences vary between 13C and 22C over ~6C
Lake Erie, and mean low-level flow varies between mainly W`erly and
NW`erly. However, mean low-level flow should shift to SW`erly for a
time on Tuesday into Tuesday evening, prior to the aforementioned
cold front passage. Given the projected evolution of the atmospheric
column, snow should be the predominant precip type during nighttime
hours, while rain should mix with snow during late morning through
early evening hours. Primarily fair weather is expected outside the
lake-effect precip. However, Tuesday night`s cold front passage may
be accompanied by isolated showers, mainly in the form of snow,
especially in NE OH and NW PA where low-level convergence and
associated ascent along the front may coincide with greater low-
level moisture. Total snow accumulations during the short-term
period may reach several inches, especially in the colder higher
terrain of NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W`erly to NW`erly mid/upper-level flow and embedded shortwave
disturbances should continue affecting our CWA on Thursday through
Saturday. At the surface, the aforementioned ridge should crest
generally E`ward over northern OH and NW PA on Thursday through
Thursday night. Our region should then become located along the
western flank of this ridge on Friday through Saturday, which should
allow a low-level CAA regime to transition to a WAA regime. Daytime
highs are forecast to moderate from the 30`s to lower 40`s on
Thursday to the 40`s to lower 50`s on Saturday. Overnight lows
should moderate from the upper teens to upper 20`s Thursday night to
the mid 20`s to lower 30`s Friday night. Lingering lake-effect
precip, mainly in the form of snow, generally southeast of Lake Erie
on Thursday is expected to end quickly Thursday night as the
aforementioned surface ridge crests over our region and is
accompanied by a stabilizing subsidence inversion, which will
contribute to waning lake-induced instability. Periods of snow
and/or rain are then possible on Friday through Saturday as low/mid-
level moist isentropic ascent aloft occurs along the western flank
of the ridge and ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough
axes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are present across the region this morning with
some rain exiting ahead of a cold front. The front was located
from approximately KPCW to KFDY and sliding east. Ahead of the
front, VFR ceilings below 5 kft were present; while behind the
front, ceilings were scattering out to just mid-level patchy
clouds. Cold air advection behind the front and a general trough
across the region will allow for low VFR ceilings to return,
especially with flow off the Great Lakes. Scattered snow showers
will develop across the region today and tonight, but confidence
in band placement and best timing was too low to mention in the
TAFs. Winds will favor a westerly direction through the period
with gusts increasing up to 25 kt during the daytime hours
today.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or
snow Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for nearshore waters:
- Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday from Avon Point to Ripley
- From 5 PM today to 8 AM Monday from Maumee Bay to Vermilion
- From 5 PM today to 5 PM Monday from Vermilion to Avon Point

A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Monday before a ridge builds
E`ward across the lake Monday night through Tuesday morning.
WSW`erly to WNW`erly winds around 15 knots to as strong as 25 knots
are expected. Waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected, especially
east of The Islands. During Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday,
another trough should overspread Lake Erie generally from the west.
In addition, a cold front should sweep generally E`ward across the
lake Tuesday night. SW`erly to W`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots
ahead of the front veer to NW`erly behind the front. Waves should
vary between 2 and 6 feet; largest waves expected east of The
Islands. Thus, additional Small Craft Advisory conditions are
forecast. NW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots Wednesday night should
begin to veer toward N`erly or E`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots on
Thursday as a ridge builds from the Canadian Prairies. Waves should
subside gradually to 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Monday for LEZ145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka


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