Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FGUS73 KDMX 210438
ESFDMX

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN IOWA...CEDAR RIVER...WINNEBAGO
RIVER...SHELL ROCK RIVER...

  AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN IOWA...BLACK HAWK...BREMER...
  BUTLER...CERRO GORDO...FLOYD...WORTH

.PLEASE NOTE...
  Due to the threat of multiple rounds of heavy rain in northern
  Iowa Wednesday through this weekend...the latest river forecasts
  have been adjusted to use 48 hours of QPF rather than the standard
  24 hours. This has resulted in significant changes to the river
  forecasts for many locations in north central and northeast Iowa.
  While forecast confidence in the occurrence of this heavy rainfall
  event is high...confidence in the placement and timing of the
  rainfall is still low. Therefore...the secondary rises in many
  rivers for the middle to latter part of the week should be treated
  as low confidence forecasts and will be subject to significant
  changes over the coming days.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITATION. THE RIVERS MAY RESPOND DIFFERENTLY THAN INDICATED...
IF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION IS GREATER OR LESS THAN EXPECTED.

LATER STATEMENTS...POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL BE ISSUED AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

MORE INFORMATION...INCLUDING IMPACT STATEMENTS AND CREST HISTORIES
IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES. CLICK ON
THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

IAC013-017-023-211638-
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

OUTLOOK INFORMATION FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT JANESVILLE...OR FROM QUARTER SECTION RUN...TO
  THE WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER.
* AT 10:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET...OR 7.2 FEET BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
  THE RIVER MAY THEN RISE TO 13.7 FEET...OR 0.7 FEET ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE...SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER MAY GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS CREST IS LOW
  AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...EVACUATION OF A TRAILER COURT IN
  JANESVILLE MAY BE NEEDED...DUE TO FLOODING ON WEST 3RD STREET.
  MUCH OF THE JANESVILLE CITY PARK FLOODS. NEARBY GRAVEL ROADS ARE
  AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 4269 9230 4261 9236 4260 9249 4262 9249
      4269 9249 4269 9230

$$

IAC013-211638-
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

OUTLOOK INFORMATION FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT WATERLOO...OR FROM THE WATERLOO-CEDAR FALLS CITY
  LIMITS...TO SPRING CREEK NEAR LA PORTE CITY.
* AT 11:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET...OR 2.8 FEET BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. THE
  RIVER MAY THEN RISE TO 14.1 FEET...OR 1.1 FEET ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER MAY GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS CREST IS LOW
  AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...MANY STORM SEWERS ARE CLOSED ALONG BLACK
  HAWK CREEK AND THE CEDAR RIVER. THE FLETCHER AVENUE LEVEE GATES
  ARE CLOSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4256 9238 4238 9207 4230 9207 4230 9222
      4251 9245 4256 9238

$$

IAC033-067-195-211638-
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

OUTLOOK INFORMATION FOR
  THE WINNEBAGO RIVER AT MASON CITY...OR FROM BEAVER CREEK NEAR
  FERTILE...TO THE SHELL ROCK RIVER NEAR ROCKFORD.
* AT 10:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET...OR 3.3 FEET BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY
  MORNING. THE RIVER MAY THEN RISE TO 14.0 FEET...OR 4.0 FEET ABOVE
  FLOOD STAGE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER MAY GO BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS CREST IS
  LOW AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE COMING
  DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...WATER MAY FLOW OVER THE CITY DIKES.

&&

LAT...LON 4329 9328 4314 9302 4301 9302 4328 9350
      4329 9328

$$

IAC013-017-023-211638-
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

OUTLOOK INFORMATION FOR
  THE SHELL ROCK RIVER AT SHELL ROCK...OR FROM FLOOD CREEK NEAR
  CLARKSVILLE...TO THE CEDAR RIVER.
* AT 10:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET...OR 2.2 FEET BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER MAY THEN RISE TO 14.2 FEET...OR 0.7 FEET ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE...SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER MAY GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  SUNDAY MORNING.  THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS CREST IS LOW AND
  WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS IN SHELL ROCK PRIMARILY
  IN RESIDENTIAL YARDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4265 9249 4265 9255 4279 9272 4284 9269
      4269 9249 4265 9249

$$

Kotenberg



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