Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
202200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
950 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS
THE TIME PERIOD FOR EARLY MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE 2016. IT INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

IOWA...CEDAR...SKUNK...DES MOINES...RACCOON...NISHNABOTNA...
102...THOMPSON AND CHARITON RIVERS


THIS OUTLOOK IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE
SEASON. BEGINNING IN EARLY APRIL THE NWS WILL RESUME ISSUING MONTHLY
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THESE OUTLOOKS COVER EACH MONTH. YOU MAY
ALSO REFER TO THE NWS DES MOINES WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES .


...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE RISK OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST
  LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER DES MOINES RIVER
  BASIN WHERE THE RISK OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ABOVE TO MUCH
  ABOVE NORMAL. THE RISK OF MODERATE AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS
  GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

* THE RISK OF RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY MINOR FLOODING...WILL BE
  MORE SENSITIVE THAN NORMAL TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS. MODERATE TO
  HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY RAINFALL...WILL MORE EASILY LEAD
  TO RIVER FLOODING THAN NORMAL. THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE ELEVATED
  SENSITIVITY OF FLOODING ARE ELEVATED SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW
  VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

* MAPS AND GRAPHICS CONCERNING THE RISK OF FLOODING IS AVAILABLE ON
  THE NWS DES MOINES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEBPAGE
  AT... HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DMX . ON THAT
  PAGE CLICK ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP LABELED EXPERIMENTAL LONG-
  RANGE FLOOD RISK.


THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS
OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS...THE FIRST PART FOR THE
PROBABILITIES OF MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...THE
SECOND PART FOR HIGH WATER AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT /CS/ AND HISTORICAL /HS/ OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE          13.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD           17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY          10.0   14.5   15.5 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK          13.5   18.0   20.0 :   9   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD        12.0   13.0   14.0 :   9   10    5    6   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS         88.0   90.0   93.0 :  62   53   31   42    8   18
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON              14.0   15.0   19.0 :  47   45   22   25   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO            13.0   19.0   21.0 :  21   33   <5    8   <5   <5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN               12.5   15.0   17.0 :  11   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
MARSHALLTOWN        19.0   23.0   26.0 :   6    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY    10.0   14.0   15.5 :  11   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :  12   17    5    6   <5   <5
COLFAX              18.0   19.0   21.0 :  19   21   12   12   <5   <5
OSKALOOSA           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA              17.0   18.0   22.0 :  18   20    6   12   <5   <5
DAKOTA CITY         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON           19.0   21.0   23.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PERRY               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  63   50   32   32   15   19
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD            20.0   24.0   27.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER           17.0   22.0   23.0 :  21   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :  21   21    6   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES FLEUR    12.0   16.0   25.0 :  67   50   21   22   <5   <5
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK             22.0   25.0   26.0 :  14   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA           23.0   26.0   28.0 :   8   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH            29.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE          8.0   13.0   14.5 :  84   45   <5    9   <5   <5
EMMETSBURG          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  19   19   <5   11   <5   <5
HUMBOLDT            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  18   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE          10.5   16.0   17.0 :  28   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRATFORD           21.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES 2ND AV   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES SE 6TH   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  69   54   21   24   <5   <5
EDDYVILLE           61.0   68.0   70.0 :  53   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTTUMWA             11.0   15.0   19.0 :  43   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY          12.0   20.0   24.0 :  14   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY        25.0   28.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON            19.5   26.0   29.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOULTON             36.0   37.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC            19.0   23.0   24.0 :  16    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION /CURRENT OUTLOOK/
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS /FT/ FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD. REFER TO TABLE 1 FOR THE FLOOD STAGES FOR EACH LOCATION.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            4.1    4.4    5.8    6.8    8.8   11.5   12.4
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD            10.1   10.3   11.0   12.1   13.3   14.8   15.4
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            5.2    5.3    5.7    6.5    7.4    8.1    9.9
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK           10.1   10.1   10.6   11.3   12.5   13.2   14.3
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          6.2    6.3    6.6    8.0   10.2   11.6   13.1
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          84.1   84.4   87.0   88.8   90.4   92.2   93.7
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON                9.6    9.9   12.4   13.7   14.9   15.5   15.7
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO              8.3    8.4    9.8   10.9   12.5   14.4   17.9
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 7.4    7.5    8.3   10.6   11.4   12.5   14.7
MARSHALLTOWN         13.6   14.0   15.0   16.4   17.4   18.4   19.1
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      4.9    5.4    6.9    8.1    9.6   11.1   11.5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      3.7    4.2    5.1    6.1    7.5   10.7   12.9
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30           13.0   14.3   16.2   17.7   19.7   22.3   23.6
COLFAX                9.6   10.4   12.6   14.4   17.3   19.2   20.7
OSKALOOSA            11.3   11.6   16.2   18.8   20.3   22.1   22.9
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA               13.0   13.3   14.2   15.4   16.7   17.5   18.5
DAKOTA CITY          11.8   11.9   12.7   14.1   16.0   17.2   18.5
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          5.3    5.6    6.4    8.2    9.4   10.5   11.1
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                4.4    6.3    8.6   10.2   11.9   12.8   13.3
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             7.2    8.0   11.0   13.6   16.1   17.8   19.3
PERRY                 8.6    9.8   13.2   16.2   18.9   21.5   22.2
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.7    4.6    7.7    9.5   11.9   16.2   20.9
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             6.4    7.4   11.3   14.3   16.4   19.6   21.2
DES MOINES IA 28     26.0   27.3   31.5   34.2   35.6   37.2   38.5
DES MOINES FLEUR      4.3    5.6   10.0   13.2   15.3   17.6   18.9
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               8.1    9.8   15.6   18.6   21.1   22.4   22.5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             8.7    9.7   14.2   15.7   17.2   22.1   23.9
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              7.4    9.3   11.9   13.5   17.5   22.4   27.5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                7.1    9.4   12.6   14.3   16.6   19.4   20.3
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           7.9    8.0    8.2    9.1   10.7   11.8   12.3
EMMETSBURG            7.0    7.1    7.5    8.8   10.7   11.6   12.7
HUMBOLDT              7.0    7.1    7.4    8.5    9.5   10.7   10.9
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            7.5    7.5    8.3    9.4   10.7   12.2   12.5
STRATFORD            11.7   11.8   13.3   16.0   17.6   19.9   20.5
DES MOINES 2ND AV    17.6   17.7   18.2   18.6   19.5   20.0   20.7
DES MOINES SE 6TH    19.3   19.4   22.7   24.8   25.5   27.6   28.5
EDDYVILLE            57.1   57.3   59.8   61.1   61.9   62.6   63.5
OTTUMWA               7.0    7.2    9.3   10.5   11.8   12.5   14.0
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            1.6    2.4    6.3    8.0    9.6   12.6   13.2
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          6.6    7.3   14.0   18.1   20.1   21.8   22.3
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON             11.2   13.6   15.6   16.7   18.0   18.7   19.3
MOULTON              22.4   23.1   27.4   31.1   34.0   34.8   35.2
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              3.9    5.2    7.0   10.5   16.8   20.6   21.5
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              11.2   12.7   15.2   16.8   19.2   20.6   21.2


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS /FT/ FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD. REFER TO TABLE 1 FOR THE FLOOD STAGES FOR EACH
LOCATION.

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            2.2    2.1    1.8    1.6    1.4    1.3    1.2
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             7.7    7.5    7.2    6.8    6.6    6.5    6.4
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            8.9    8.8    8.7    8.4    8.2    8.1    8.0
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          4.1    4.0    3.8    3.4    3.2    3.0    2.9
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          80.6   80.4   80.0   79.5   79.1   78.9   78.9
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON                6.2    6.1    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.2    5.2
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO              6.8    6.7    6.5    6.2    6.0    5.9    5.8
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 5.5    5.2    5.0    4.6    4.2    3.9    3.8
MARSHALLTOWN         11.0   10.9   10.7   10.4   10.1    9.9    9.9
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      3.9    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.2    3.0    2.9
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      2.2    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30           10.7   10.5   10.2    9.7    9.2    8.8    8.7
COLFAX                8.6    8.5    8.3    8.0    7.7    7.4    7.4
OSKALOOSA            10.3   10.0    9.2    8.8    8.0    7.3    7.2
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                9.1    8.6    8.3    7.9    7.8    7.6    7.5
DAKOTA CITY           9.8    9.6    9.2    8.8    8.5    8.3    8.2
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          2.6    2.5    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                3.8    3.7    3.4    3.2    2.9    2.7    2.6
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             6.3    6.1    5.8    5.5    5.4    5.1    5.0
PERRY                 7.0    6.5    5.9    5.5    5.2    4.6    4.4
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.4    3.4    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.8
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             5.5    5.2    4.8    4.6    4.3    3.9    3.7
DES MOINES IA 28     24.5   24.0   23.5   23.3   23.0   22.5   22.3
DES MOINES FLEUR      2.9    2.4    1.9    1.6    1.2    0.8    0.7
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               7.7    7.5    6.9    6.4    6.1    6.0    5.9
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             7.5    7.3    7.0    6.8    6.7    6.6    6.6
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              6.2    5.9    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                5.9    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           5.0    4.7    4.4    3.7    3.3    3.1    3.0
EMMETSBURG            4.3    4.0    3.5    2.6    2.2    1.8    1.7
HUMBOLDT              5.5    5.2    4.9    4.3    4.1    3.9    3.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            5.9    5.5    5.2    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3
STRATFORD             8.6    7.9    7.4    6.8    6.4    6.3    6.0
DES MOINES 2ND AV    14.6   14.4   14.2   14.0   13.7   13.6   13.3
DES MOINES SE 6TH    15.3   14.9   14.0   13.4   12.5   11.9   11.7
EDDYVILLE            54.9   54.2   52.0   51.0   50.2   49.7   49.5
OTTUMWA               5.3    4.8    3.6    3.0    2.5    2.2    2.1
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            1.3    1.1    1.0    0.8    0.6    0.6    0.6
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON              5.7    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
MOULTON              19.9   19.9   19.9   19.9   19.9   19.8   19.8
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              3.4    3.3    3.1    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.4
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              10.8   10.8   10.8   10.7   10.7   10.7   10.7


THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON SCENARIOS
FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND
SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC
NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 2ND 2016...

* SNOWPACK...THE SNOWPACK IS NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS
  ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL AS THE
  UPPER-MOST DES MOINES RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW IS
  ON THE GROUND MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH SIOUX FALLS...FORT
  DODGE...MARSHALLTOWN AND CEDAR RAPIDS. WHERE THE SNOWPACK DOES
  EXIST...ITS WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 TO 1
  INCH...EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER-MOST DES MOINES RIVER BASIN IN
  SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 2 OR MORE INCHES.

* SOIL MOISTURE...SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
  THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. NEAR-RECORD HIGH VALUES EXIST IN SOME
  LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL.

* FROST DEPTH...GROUND FROST IS EITHER VERY SHALLOW OR NON-EXISTENT.
  FOUR-INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 32 TO 34F DEGREE
  RANGE.

* STREAMFLOWS...STREAM FLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
  NORMAL. RECORD HIGH STREAM FLOWS EXISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
  UPPER DES MOINES RIVER BASIN.

* DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST ACROSS IOWA.

$$

ZOGG



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