Text Products for FWS Issued by DMX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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FNUS73 KDMX 151155
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Wolters...Butler County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
655 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected today
with minimum relative humidity values falling towards 20%,
continued warm temperatures, and increasing winds out of the
southeast into this afternoon with gusts approaching 25 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 6 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the east 12 to
                    17 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 17 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (87600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................6 increasing to 12 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  22  8   4   5   4   4   4   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  51  57  64  67  70  74  76  77  77  77
RH..............60  48  42  34  28  25  22  21  21  22  23
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   6   8   12  14  14  15  15  15  16  17
20 FT wind gust.            16  17  18  20  20  21  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.8 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.9
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   9   14  17  18  17  17  16  17  18  21
GFDI............1   1   3   5   7   8   10  11  12  13  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/10002   3   10  29  43  51  58  63  72  81  88

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers overnight. Chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight. Rain showers likely after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 15 to 24 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph
                    after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 18 to 24 mph shifting to the southeast 26
                    to 28 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (82500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (10500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................12.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      14     21     48     72     90
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............76     68     63     61     59     57
RH..............23     33     43     46     51     57
20 ft wind......E 17   E 15   E 16   E 17   E 21   SE 23
20 ft wind gust.23     24     26     29     31     35
Mix hgt (ft)....4600   700    600    700    800    1100
Transport wind..E 21   E 18   E 21   E 23   SE 24  SE 26
GFDI............14     9      9      9      10     12
Haines index....6      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100083     11     12     15     17     25

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    in the morning. Rain showers through the day.
                    Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southeast winds 23 to 29 mph with gusts
                    to around 43 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 28 to 37 mph shifting to the southeast 23
                    to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................12.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........92        92        94        93
Weather cov.....LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Temp............54        52        59        61
RH..............66        77        72        81
20 FT wind......SE 24G36  E 26G38   E 29G43   SE 28G39
Mix hgt (ft)....1400      1500      1600      1300
Transport wind..SE 29     E 36      E 35      SE 28
GFDI............11        11        16        13
Haines index....4         2         2         3
SDspl kt-ft/100035        46        46        31

$$
Forecaster...KCM
Requested by...Jacob Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410851.0/DMX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 16moorjaco@gmail.com
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
