105
ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level
troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow
(Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the
Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon,
promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be
in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the
development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong to potentially severe.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface
temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding
MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained
to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The
stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging
gusts.

...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and
minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly
likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1.
Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70
F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH
Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly
low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear.
Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving
MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts.

...Central to Southern High Plains...
Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast,
beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will
yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell
will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated
severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

$$