204
FXUS63 KICT 120002
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
702 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beneficial rain from showers/storms Sunday through Monday.

- Seasonably mild and dry on Tuesday.

- Another chance for showers/storms Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Main change to the forecast is to delay onset of precip chances
tonight for locations along/west of the I-135 corridor. The
bulk of the low and mid-level moisture advection occurring ahead
of the approaching upper trof will remain further west across
the high Plains tonight with the better moisture transport
developing after sunrise Sunday over central and south central
Kansas. Precipitable water values of 1-1.33" will overspread
the forecast area during the day on Sunday though only
weak/modest instability will be present. That said, moderate
shear looks to develop over south central Kansas in the
afternoon which could support storms with small hail. The
likelihood for more widespread rainfall across much of the area
looks to develop on Sunday evening/night. This should include
some of the more drought-stricken areas north and west of the
Wichita area into parts of central Kansas. The better chances
for rainfall should shift mainly to areas east of the Kansas
turnpike during Monday, unless the GFS is more correct in a
slower/westward position of the mid/upper level low hanging back
across central Kansas during Monday morning. The NAM and GFS
are somewhat suggestive of a marginal severe potential in
southeast Kansas Monday afternoon where moderate cape and shear
combo may reside before the surface boundary exits stage right.
Precip chances should then diminish/end from west to east
across the forecast area by Monday evening/night as the upper
trof shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected on
Tuesday under shortwave ridging aloft with temperatures near
seasonal climo.

Moisture looks to advect northward into the area ahead of the
next upper trof for late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by
a drying and warming trend later Friday into next Saturday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

We are currently watching an area of decaying
showers/thunderstorms over western Kansas moving east. Thinking
this activity will continue to fall apart as it moves east, but
if it does hold together, would impact Russell-Barton counties
by around 03z later this evening. Strong or severe storms are
not expected. Thereafter, chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will gradually increase from west to east across
the region Sunday through Sunday evening, persisting through
Sunday night and into Monday, as an upper low slowly meanders
over Mid-America. Limited instability should limit widespread
thunder potential, so only included -SHRA for now, although the
forcing coupled with marginal instability should lead to at
least a few embedded thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK