006
FXUS61 KPBZ 280518
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
118 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the
upcoming week while precipitation will be periodic but mainly
focused on Tuesday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Another warm day. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
- Afternoon showers and storms possible north.

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Overnight period in good shape. Made some minor adjustments to
PoPs. Ridge is working to amplify overnight, but ahead of these
height rises, a shower may sneak across the far north overtop
of the building ridges. Raised overnight lows as well. With
continued warm air advection, increasing low-level southerly
flow, and cloud cover, temperatures should not fall very much
overnight. In fact, areas in the northeast that never broke out
of the easterly flow should do so and see temperatures rise
overnight.

Slow and steady 500mb height rises are anticipated today. The
ridge amplification will be hindered by a weak shortwave trough
that will cross Lake Erie and eventually upstate New York today.
This wave will pull moisture eastward with it and also provide
some weak large scale ascension over the I-80 corridor
throughout the day. Instability/buoyancy will increase across
the entire region today. Most of the area will be capped by the
warm air aloft and increased subsidence from the building ridge.
However, over the I-80 corridor there will be somewhat cooler
air aloft and those locales will rest at the top of the ridge in
zonal flow aloft. This would be the area to focus for any
afternoon shower and storm activity. NBM prob thunder is close
to 30% this afternoon across the far north with probs of
measurable precipitation approaching 50%. Forecast soundings
from the deterministic models are telling the same story with
impressive instability, even at the surface, and no cap. The
crossing wave may provide enough forcing to spark convection.
Shear values are weak, which would mean more popup convection
rather than organized. If stronger storms do develop, a
scenario where outflow boundaries create new storms could come
to fruition. PoPs will be maintained over the I-80 corridor this
afternoon.

Another warm day. Went with NBM 50th pct highs as highs
yesterday outperformed the mean. Expect scattered cu to develop
across much of the region today, with a thicker cu cover over
the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min
  temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Diurnally driven isolated convection confined to northwest
  PA.

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Impressive eastern CONUS ridge continues to hold strong on
Monday. Any available upper level energy will be kept at bay
well to the west of the region or north of the peak of the
ridge. Drier air will fill into the ridge on Monday and warm
air advection will continue. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday
with warmer temperatures. An isolated afternoon storm cannot be
ruled out across the far north Monday, but with increased warm
air aloft, and little forcing, initiation will be difficult.

Highs Monday will approach record levels at all climate sites.
NBM 75th pct for max T on Monday would break or tie the record
high at 3 of the 5 climate sites. The key will be sunshine, and
the possible decrease of surface dewpoints. Even if we don`t
reach the records, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
normal.

The Central Plains trough will lift northward through the
western Great Lakes late Monday, with a shortwave rounding its
based expected to move eastward through the Upper Ohio River
Valley Tuesday. This movement will push a weak surface cold
front eastward, creating a loosely organized line of showers and
thunderstorms through the region starting Tuesday morning. Cloud
cover and storm timing will limit instability ahead of the
convection (mean values around 500 J/kg) and keep severe threats
at bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with
  above-average temperatures favored.

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Subsidence and ridging is favored Tuesday night into Wednesday,
promoting a return to dry weather and well above average
temperature. Moisture may work underneath the ridge axis and
allow for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as
convective temperature are met, but ensembles are bearish on
this occurrence.

The late week period will be defined by the strength of the
ridge axis building across the eastern CONUS and depth of
troughs lifting out of the plains through the Great Lakes.
Strong ridge solutions would lead to well above average
temperature and dry weather while weaker ridges would lead to
above normal temperature with shortwave movement leading to
periods of showers and thunderstorms. Any severe threat will
depend on strength of that passing shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under a building ridge.
Mid and high level cloud cigs will continue into the afternoon,
with CU rule and model soundings indicating a scattered CU layer
developing across the region. The exception will be FKL and
DUJ, where a low VFR broken CU cig is expected.

There is also a minimal chance of a mid to late afternoon
shower or thunderstorm at FKL and DUJ, as a disturbance crosses
southern Ontario/Lake Erie on the northern periphery of the
ridge. Maintained the VCTS mention in the FKL/DUJ tafs for this
potential.

LLWS is expected early this morning at FKL and DUJ, as a low
level jet sets up across NW PA. The LLWS will end by 12-13Z as
the jet dissipates.

.Outlook...
VFR is expected through Monday under a ridge of high pressure.
Restrictions are likely Tuesday in showers and a few
thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday
and Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Sunday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record High  Year    Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             88      (1990)      66      (2021)
Wheeling               89      (1942)      65      (2021)
Morgantown             91      (1986)      64      (1962)
New Philadelphia       90      (1990)      55*     (2021)
Zanesville             89      (1914)      63      (1914)
Dubois                 85      (1990)      65      (1990)

Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record High  Year    Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             88      (1899)      65      (1974)
Wheeling               86*     (1942)      64      (1914)
Morgantown             91      (1899)      67      (1914)
New Philadelphia       90      (1986)      64      (1974)
Zanesville             90      (1899)      67      (1914)
Dubois                 80      (1970)      61      (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             69      (1899)
Wheeling               58*     (1911)
Morgantown             66      (1910)
New Philadelphia       63      (1991)
Zanesville             69      (1910)
Dubois                 60*     (1970)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/Frazier
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/Frazier
LONG TERM...22/Frazier
AVIATION...WM
CLIMATE...Frazier