Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
051 FXUS65 KVEF 132131 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 230 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024 Updated Aviation section .SYNOPSIS...Limited moisture and instability will lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Sierra and mountains of Central Nevada through Tuesday followed by a slight chance of showers over the Southern Nevada mountains on Wednesday. Elsewhere, a warm weather pattern will persist through the week with highs 5 to 7 degrees above normal. A slight cooling trend with increasing southwest winds develops late this weekend. && .SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Warm weather will continue over the region with little change in high temperatures the next few days although a convergent synoptic flow aloft will result in some cloud cover and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Sierra and mountains of Central Nevada. The features responsible for the converging flow are a mean trough dropping over the Northern Intermountain Region and a large weak closed low near the Southern California Coast. Limited moisture and instability combined with the convergence will lead to afternoon convection primarily over the mountains. Any rainfall will be minimal and no significant impacts are expected aside from remote occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds near showers. The area of moisture and instability will be primarily concentrated over the southern Sierra/central Nevada area through Tuesday then will push over southern Nevada Wednesday leading to a 10 percent chance of showers over the Spring Mountains and some increased cloud cover. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. A growing ridge over the eastern Pacific will continue to grow over the western United States late-week into the weekend. Temperatures will remain 10 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages, with desert valleys increasing to "Moderate" HeatRisk. Las Vegas has a 35% chance of 100F both Friday and Saturday, which would be the first occurrence of the year. That said, uncertainty remains in the long term as ensemble means indicate a weak closed low will meander eastward into southern California / northern Baja, which would dampen heights somewhat. As a result, the NBM4.1 totes a 10-degree temperature spread between the 25th and the 75th percentile this weekend in Las Vegas. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southwest winds 10-15KT will persist through the evening then become light and variable overnight and Tuesday morning. Similar wind components and speeds can be expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. FEW-SCT clouds with bases 100-150 can be expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty afternoon south-southwest winds to 20 knots will develop across the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley through Tuesday followed by light winds after sunset. At KDAG, gusty late afternoon and evening west winds 20-25 knots will occur. AT KBIH, isolated showers may occur in the vicinity of airport each afternoon as afternoon convection develops over the Southern Sierra and Central Nevada mountains. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Adair LONG TERM...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter