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000
FXUS63 KABR 281645 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER PERUSING THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEEMS THAT REGION STANDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 30 MPH OR HIGHER SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMEST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
LL CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FAIRLY EASILY. IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS STILL HAS SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE FAR NERN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FOG/HAZE VISIBILITY CONDITION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS DOES ITS BEST TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UPDATES/ADVISORY ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THESE CIGS DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN