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000
FXUS63 KABR 300014 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ND TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL SD. SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE BIT WEST INTO CORSON COUNTY
BASED ON LATEST STORM MOTION ON RADAR. ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS EVENING. IT IS GENERATING
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS HOUR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. TSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN