233
FXUS63 KABR 150518 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible across the region this evening,
  then again Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Large hail and strong winds
  are the main threats.

- Heavy rain is possible along and east of the James River into west
  central Minnesota Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- There will be a noticeable cool-down midweek with highs
  potentially 15 to 20 degrees below normal Wednesday and 10 to 15
  degrees below normal Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across central SD and have
adjusted PoPs to "likely" (60%) this evening. Seeing very strong
wind gusts with some of these storms in excess of 70-80 mph. DCAPE
values around 1600-1700 J/KG. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 is
valid until 03Z, but may have to extend that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Hot temperatures and relatively lower humidity values are more
commonplace across the Missouri Valley this afternoon versus farther
east, where it`s a bit cooler and more humid. A few higher clouds
are drifting into central SD and there`s some fair weather CU across
parts of east central SD this afternoon. Latest vsbl satl and radar
trends early this afternoon show convection firing across eastern WY
and the Black Hills region. It will be this activity that will
affect parts of this CWA later this evening into the overnight.

Sfc low pressure will continue to organize and shift out of eastern
WY into western SD tonight as a shortwave impulse tracks through the
region in westerly mid level flow. This will aid in continued
convective development with this convection anticipated to reach our
western zones by early to mid evening tonight. Instability and deep
layer shear along with steep low and mid level lapse rates will be
sufficient to maintain convection tonight across central SD. Also, a
low level jet does kick in across our west and this should also
favor storm maintenance going into the overnight. Damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph and large hail to quarter size will be the primary
threats. Some of this convection is expected to stumble east into
the James Valley and other parts of our northeast late tonight into
early Tuesday with perhaps more of a heavy rain threat developing.
There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather around
the Pierre area and points south and west with a marginal risk
(level 1 out of 5) for most of central and northeast SD tonight.

Another round of active weather is expected later in the day Tuesday
into Tuesday night as that sfc low tracks east-southeast toward the
SD/NE border area and a cold front slowly sags south into our
northern zones during the morning and midday hours. A ribbon of
favorable instability and deep layer shear will be pressure across
the southern half of our CWA by the afternoon. Steep low and mid
level lapse rates are also expected along and south of the cold
front prompting SPC to highlight our far southern zones, from
Kennebec to Watertown and points south and east with a slight risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats but can`t rule out a tornado or two across
across far south central SD and and points and east out of our
forecast area. Mid level impulses will still traverse the area
through midweek as the sfc low and cold front shifts farther away
from our area. This will continue to maintain the active pattern
with more garden variety showers and storms expected in a more
stable atmosphere. Parallel flow in the low to mid levels in
conjunction with that west to east splayed out sfc front Tuesday and
Wednesday may lead to training showers and storms with the potential
to produce locally heavy rainfall, especially across the James
Valley and points east where a slight risk for excessive rainfall
has been posted.

Drier conditions will move in by late Wednesday through early
Friday. Much cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s still look
likely during this time frame. A gradual warm up is anticipated late
in the week into the upcoming weekend where more seasonal readings
can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of TSRA/SHRA will affect the region through the TAF period,
but with very little confidence on timing and placement. IFR VSBY
possible in heavier showers. MVFR/IFR CIGs forecast to spread
south over the region on Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20