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000
FXUS63 KABR 141155 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO COVER ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE DAY THANKS TO
AMPLE SUN...A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR MIXING...AND H85
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +2 AND -4C.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON A WEAK SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW MOSTLY DUE TO RECENT
AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHIFTS IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST QPF. THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS...WITH AN INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BAND FORMING OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH
BEST UPPER FORCING OVER WEST RIVER. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER THE THE JAMES VALLEY AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS OPPOSED TO THE MO VALLEY IN
THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SUGGEST SOME
DRY/WARM AIR TO OVERCOME...SO EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WARM LAYER MAY BE RELATED TO DAYTIME
HEATING...OVER WHICH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THANKS TO
QUESTIONS OVER HOME MUCH CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AND HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE NOW RATHER HIGH FOR 1 INCH ACCUMULATION ALONG A
KBIS TO KATY AXIS...THOUGH THE 4 INCH PROBABILITY IS AT BEST ONLY
20 PERCENT. WILL TOP OUT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS AVERAGE...AND MUCH BELOW THE 3 TO 4 INCH
RANGE SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...THEY ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH
THE ENERGY AND SFC FEATURES WITHIN THAT FLOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW ON TUESDAY VS THE GFS/GEM.
THIS HAS SOME FAIRLY BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW MUCH AND WHAT
TYPE OF PCPN WE GET. BUT THE MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE ON FAIRLY
HEALTHY POPS SAID TIME PERIOD...SO WILL BE UPPING THEM SLIGHTLY
FROM MODEL BLEND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTHEAST MOVING DECK OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE DAY AND TNT SHOULD FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

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