Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241211 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
611 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Left exit region will support cyclogenesis to our south today,
with a low pressure system that will track across the Central
Plains before hooking northeast into the Midwest. Best forcing
continues to be just south of the CWA with a core of 20 to 30
microbars of lift between 600-700mb between the late morning and
early evening hours.

General model trends with the 00Z deterministic runs along with the
short term CAM solutions have been to move the track of the system
south somewhat, along with a delay in timing. Therefore have shifted
the start time for the advisory. Snow totals are also trending
lower, with the SREF probabilities for 1" of snow falling to only 30%
along highway 212 to negligible at the ND/SD state line. To the
south, SREF probabilities for exceeding 8" continues to focus along
and south of Interstate 90, so will leave the Winter Storm Warning
in place.

Mixed winds on the backside of this system are not particularly
strong, on the order of upper teens with gusts into the low 20s
(knots). Added mention of blowing snow but this will be a minor
impact from this system as winds are only strong enough to cause
some drifting and shouldn`t have an impact on visibility.

Stratus appears to remain in place within BUFKIT soundings through
the course of the short term. There will be some weak cold advection
on northwest flow, and that shows up in the blended guidance for
Highs/Lows - but will be tempered by continued low level saturation.
Profiles also suggest light snow lingering through much of the week,
particularly in the eastern CWA thanks to the upper trof lingering
across the Western Lakes region, with low level saturation within
the dendritic growth zone.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

The long term upper level long wave pattern along with the
associated surface features have been consistent over several model
runs. Expect upper level ridging along the west coast and into
western Canada with upper level troughing across eastern
Canada/eastern U.S. from Thursday night through Monday. This will
keep northwest to northerly flow over our region through the period
with Canadian air dominating at the surface. With the new snow cover
across the region, temperatures will be influenced. At this time, it
looks like temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with
highs mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. Monday appears to be the
warmest with all 30s for highs. The long term period also looks to
be dry overall with no significant short waves moving through. There
is a clipper system and its associated cold front coming through the
region Monday and Monday night. This will bring in a chance of light
snow Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

IFR/MVFR stratus ceilings will remain over all locations through
today and tonight. A winter storm moving into the region will
continue to spread snow across the region through today affecting
all locations with IFR/MVFR visibilities. The heaviest snow will
occur at PIR with visibilities possibly to less than a half mile at
times. The snow will diminish and end through the night. Increasing
north winds will also bring some blowing snow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     SDZ015>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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