Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 221134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS


















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