Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 181352
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
852 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As a storm system starts to move away from the region, a light
wintry mix this morning will give way to drizzle and freezing
drizzle for this afternoon into tonight. Mostly cloudy, but dry
conditions are expected tomorrow. Temperatures will be above
normal for the remainder of the week into the weekend, with
continued mainly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 850 AM EST...Secondary area of low pressure continues to
slowly slide eastward just south of southern New England. On and
off light precipitation has become much less widespread over our
area and is starting to become fairly spotty. Best coverage is
currently north of the Capital Region and into the Mohawk Valley
and southern Adirondacks. The 10z 3km HRRR suggest this trend of
decreasing coverage/intensity will continue through the morning
hours.

P-type primarily depends on intensity, with heavier bursts
allowing for snow/sleet and lighter precip generally rain (or very
light freezing rain in areas where sfc temps remain below
freezing, which is generally the higher elevations). Most of the
heavier echos are ending, so would expect precip to gradually
transition to just rain or drizzle through the next few hours.
However, still cannot rule out light snow showers for a few
spots.

Any additional accumulation of snow and sleet will generally be an
inch or less with the most likely area to receive any
accumulation across the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley.

With the upper level shortwave trough passing by to the south of
the region, the best moisture and dynamics will be moving away
from the area by later this morning into this afternoon. The
higher and colder cloud tops will be moving out and it may be
tough to generate ice nuclei in the clouds later today, so have
allowed for mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle for this afternoon
into this evening. Precip will be fairly light and spotty, and
many spots may just wind up staying cloudy with some patchy mist.

Temperatures today won`t rise much due to plenty of clouds and
abundant low level moisture. Temps look to reach the mid to upper
30s for valley areas, with low to middle 30s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With plenty of low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion, some
lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle looks to continue into the
overnight hours tonight, mainly across northern and high terrain
areas. A weak upper level disturbance looks to slide across
northern areas as well tonight, and this could allow for a few
passing light flurries or snow showers as well, but most areas
look to remain just cloudy and dry for tonight. Lows will fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s, so any remaining wet surfaces may
become slick once again.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will build across
the region for Thursday into Friday. This will allow for dry
weather with above normal temps. Some moisture will still be
trapped beneath an inversion, so will continue to expect plenty of
clouds, especially across northern and high terrain areas. Max
temps on Thursday and Friday look to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s
and lows on Thursday night will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

As the ridge starts to shift eastward, a weak disturbance will be
approaching from the south for Friday night. This system looks to
weaken as it runs into the ridge and will be shearing out. Cannot
totally rule out a rain or snow shower across southern areas for
Friday night, but any precip looks very light and spotty (if at
all). Cloud cover will range from partly cloudy over northern
areas to overcast across the south. Lows will generally be in the
mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening upper energy drifts north with a thinning band of clouds
and maybe just a slight chance of a rain or snow shower in parts of
the southern Adirondacks. Upper ridging will also be building into
our region. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 40s but upper 30s in
the southern Adirondacks.

Dry weather Sunday with continued upper ridging but upper cut off
low tracking into the TN Valley will begin to approach. Warm
advection begins to increase but high clouds could be streaming in
through the day Sunday. Highs similar to Saturday, in the 40s but
upper 30s southern Adirondacks.

The upper cut off low slowly but steadily tracks northeast within a
negatively tilted upper trough. There are considerable differences
in the track, timing and evolution of the upper low and negatively
tilted upper trough.  There is a decent consensus for strengthening
boundary layer south winds, warm advection, deep moisture advection
and isentropic lift late Sunday night through Tuesday.

So, lots of clouds and good chances for precipitation during that
time period. Some lingering low level cold air could result in some
mixed precipitation including freezing rain early Monday morning in
some areas. Then temperatures warm during the day Monday and most
ares should see chances for rain. Some slight cooling Monday night
and early Tuesday could support some pockets of freezing rain in the
southern Adirondacks. Stronger warming Tuesday should end the
freezing rain during the morning.

Highs Monday in the lower to mid 40s but upper 30s southern
Adirondacks.  Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 40s but lower 40s
southern Adirondacks.  Still enough spread in guidance and resultant
uncertainty that areas under the threat of mixed precipitation and
freezing rain and timing cannot be pinpointed yet and details will
become clearer as we get closer. Upper lows within negatively tilted
background upper flow can produce quite a bit of precipitation and
will keep an eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure tracking across the region is still producing mixed
precipitation. Radar and satellite data still shows waves of
precipitation with varying intensity extending from central NY,
through eastern NY and into New England.  Ceilings and visibilities
are MVR/IFR across the region and will be predominantly IFR with
intervals of MVFR conditions through this morning.

Precipitation at KALB, KGFL and KPSF will be a mix of snow, sleet
and rain, while just rain at KPOU. Coverage and intensity of
precipitation is very slowly decreasing and will continue that trend
through the morning but holding some light precipitation at all the
sites through about 16Z. Beyond 16Z, the slow decrease in coverage
of light precipitation seen in mesoscale model guidance suggests
keeping VCSH through this evening for any lingering light scattered
shower activity that could become snow flurries during the evening.
After 06Z the rain/snow showers should end and taking VCSH out of
the forecast.  However, there could still be some light fog
bordering between VFR/MVFR and ceilings will likely hold in the MVFR
range between 06Z-12Z.

Winds will be light and variable through the period as the low
pressure slowly tracks through and east of the region through the
day. Winds should become generally north by late this afternoon and
evening at 6 Kt or less as the low pressure departs.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...FZRA...SLEET.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will continue to bring a light wintry mix to the
region for the remainder of the overnight hours and into the day
on Wednesday. Precipitation so far has been about a quarter to
half inch. One to three tenths of additional precipitation looks
to occur for the rest of the overnight hours into the day on Wednesday.

Although some of this precipitation has be frozen, some minor
rises on rivers and streams can be expected, especially from the
Mohawk River on southward. However, no flooding is expected.

Behind this storm system, temperatures will average above normal
for the remainder of the week. Some snow melt over the Adirondacks
and southern Vermont may contribute to some additional runoff,
but any rises on rivers and streams will only be very minor and
overnight lows should fall below freezing most of the time.
Little, if any, precipitation is expected for Thursday into the
weekend, but some rainfall can be expected next week with an
approaching cutoff low pressure area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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