Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 070300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SE QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER


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