Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 251747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

With warm temperatures and humid conditions in place, showers and
thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon into this
evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With the passage of a cold front
tonight, slightly less humid air will move into the region for
tomorrow, but temperatures will continue to be rather warm with a
partly to mostly sunny sky.


Severe thunderstorm watch 415 in effect until 8 PM

One complex of storms headed through the eastern Catskills toward
the mid Hudson Valley. There have been some strong wind gusts with
the storms and some storms around severe limits in the eastern
catskills. As they move into the unstable mid Hudson valley, some
thunderstorms could continue to reach severe limits. Areas from the
Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the southern
Adirondacks, Capital District, southern Vt and the northern
Berkshires should see some showers and storms but of less
intensity. Will be considering extending the severe thunderstorm
watch east into the Berkshires and NW CT later this afternoon if
the storms maintain their intensity or strengthen.

Clearing behind this cluster of storms along the NY/PA border
could help destabilize the atmosphere ahead of additional
convection in western NY. There are indications in the data and
mesoscale models that once this leading cluster of storms exits,
the western NY convection could track into the greatest low level
moisture and instability which is in PA/NJ and points south. Will
just keep a close eye on it but considering the cooling and cloud
cover in central and eastern NY, this seems like a reasonable
prediction but real data and trends will be monitored.

Temperatures have already reached close to forecasted highs, and
have indicated some temperatures dropping where convection is
expected to track early this afternoon. Keeping the heat advisory
as some heat index values are nearing 100F now, prior to the
convection. Highs this afternoon in the 80s to lower 90s, but
cooling once thunderstorms arrive. The primary threat for severe
weather is strong gusty winds but some small hail is also
possible. Have kept the small hail and gusty winds for areas
outside the severe thunderstorm watch because there is still a
marginal risk.


Convection will be winding down and moving off to the east with
the pre-frontal trough early in the evening. The cold front will
move across the region late in the evening and during the early
morning hours. A drier airmass will be ushered in the wake of the
boundary, however only slightly cooler.

Ridging will build in the lower levels of the atmosphere through
the middle of the week, while the flow aloft flatten and becomes
zonal. Expecting fair weather with continue above normal
temperatures with westerly flow across the area. Highs both
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to range from the upper 70s to
lower 90s with Wednesday a bit warmer than Tuesday. Nighttime lows
will be near to slightly above seasonal levels.


A low confidence forecast in the long the GFS and Canadian
Guidance is much different compared to the ECMWF and superblend of
the guidance.  The latter guidance package favors wet and unsettled
weather with a cold front stalling over eastern NY and western New
England with slight or low chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into the weekend.  To stay consistent with the neighboring
forecast a superblend of the guidance had to be utilized.

Thu-Thu night...An amplifying upper level trough will allow a cold
front to approach the region during the day.  The front lacks robust
moisture convergence and strong upper level support.  Only a low
chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was used. H850
temps will be in the +15C to +18C range from the Adirondacks
southeast into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s were favored in the valley areas...and upper 70s to
lower 80s over the higher terrain.  The front stalls near the I-90
corridor according the WPC guidance THU night.  Lows will be on the
mild side with mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations and upper
50s to lower 60s over the mountains.

Fri-Fri night..The front becomes stationary over southern NY and
southern New England.  The GFS/CAN GGEM would have the mid and upper
level trough amplify enough for high pressure to build in...and this
would be a drier scenario.  The EC has showers and thunderstorms
increase ahead of a sfc wave and the stationary front lifting back
slightly north as a warm front.  Again...based on the blend of the
guidance this was favored with slightly cooler temps with mid 70s to
mid 80s for highs.  It will remain humid with dewpts in the upper
50s to mid 60s.  Lows will range from the mid and upper 50s over the
srn Dacks...and srn Greens to upper 60s over the mid Hudson Valley
and portions of NW CT.

Sat-Sun...More unsettled weather potentially with a series of
disturbances moving along the front with a rather flat upper level
trough near the Great Lakes Region.  Chances of showers will persist
with slight to low chances of thunderstorms in the moist
environment.  Some of the rainfall could help the hydro service area
due to the persistent dry wx/drought conditions over the past month
or so. Temps are expected to be close to late July normals.


First round of showers and thunderstorms moving over TAF sites
between 1730 and 1900Z. Some brief reductions to MVFR/IFR
conditions will be possible in thunderstorm at KPOU. Other sites
are north of thunderstorms and just rain showers are more likely.

Second round of showers and thunderstorms are expected at the TAF
sites between 25/22Z and 26/00Z.

VFR conditions are expected after 00Z/TUE...but some MVFR/IFR
mist is expected to develop after 04Z at the TAF sites.

The winds will be south to southwest at 5-12 KT this afternoon.
Some gusts in the 15-20 KT range will be possible in the
afternoon from the southwest before becoming light after 00Z/TUE.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.


Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.


Westerly wind with gusts into the teens and 20s Tuesday

Another day with hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across
the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. With the passage of
the cold front tonight, a slightly cooler but drier air mass will
be ushered in. High pressure will build in and bring fair dry
weather to the area through the middle of the week.


Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across
the area mainly this afternoon into the evening as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Some storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water
values rise to around 2 inches. Ponding of water on roadways along
with some minor urban flooding of low lying and poor drainage area
is possible. With the passage of the cold front tonight, a
slightly cooler but drier air mass will be ushered in. High
pressure will build in and bring fair weather to the area through
the middle of the week. Unsettled weather is expected late in the
week through the weekend.


Here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year
through July 24th, what is normal and the most that has occurred
in a year.

Albany NY:
2016: 9 days
Normal: 10 days
Most: 32 days in 1955
Note: Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
2016: 8 days
Normal: 6 days
Most: 22 days in 1988
Note records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
2016: 16 days with 10 days in July and another forecast for today
Normal: 15 days
Most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002
Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from
January 1993 through July 2000

Pittsfield MA:
2016: 1 day
Normal: 2 days
Most: 7 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000

Bennington VT:
2016: 2 days
Normal: 3 days
Most: 9 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000


NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065.


LONG TERM...Wasula
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