Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







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