Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL


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