Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 301146
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will cross our
region later today. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.

As of 645 AM EDT...Another batch of moderate to locally heavy rain
actually expanded into the Berkshires, working northeast and
extended back into the Mid Hudson Valley. Lighter scattered showers
were noted north and west into the Capital region.

A cold front working through the eastern Great Lakes and eastern
Ohio valley was moving to the east.

Temperatures ranged from about 60 to 70 throughout our region.

A theta-e ridge will shift to our east, as well as the 2.0 inch
PWATs over our region earlier. Drier air in the mid levels looks as
it will actually reduce shower activity this morning to widely
scattered or isolated later this morning. The day will still start
off cloudy, but a lot of the lower clouds should dissipate by midday.

For this update, just fine tuned the grids to better match the
observations.

Still, with the cold front upstream, SBCAPE values look to ramp up
to 500-1000 J/KG...highest to the southeast of the Capital region.
Even with modest lapse rates, a bulk shear of around 30 KTS should
be enough to develop some locally robust thunderstorms which could
contain gusty winds. We have added enhanced wording (just gusty
winds) during the afternoon, since SPC has placed most of our region
in Marginal risk today.

High temperatures will depend on cloud cover. If clouds were to hold
tough, they could end up mainly in the 70s. However we believe there
will be at least partial sunshine midday on, which along with a
south wind becoming southwest to westerly during the afternoon,
would allow for temperatures to reach 80-85 in most valley
locations, mid to upper 70s over the higher elevations.

Dewpoints look to be still be elevated in the 60s, slowly starting
to come down late in the day as a pre-frontal trough works across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Batch of light to moderate rain was impacting KPOU-KPSF which should
quickly move east of these areas around 14Z.  Here is where flight
conditions will be reduced to a period of MVFR with a narrow window
of IFR.  Otherwise, for KGFL-KALB a mainly VFR to high end MVFR
conditions this early morning. However, some IFR cigs are likely
at KGL prior to 14Z...and a tempo was used here.

As the day progresses, cold front will be approaching.  Latest
mesoscale models point toward a sct-bkn band of convection to evolve
with mainly locations just to the south and east of KALB where we
will place TEMPO groups.  For the other locations, a VCSH at this
time as we will monitor trends closely.

Winds will generally be southerly with a slight shift toward a
westerly component at speeds 10kts or less.  As frontal passage
occurs, a light westerly wind should evolve through tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.


With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...BGM/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV



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