Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 021337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL


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