Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 290416
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1216 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
across the region tonight ahead of an advancing cold front. Once
the cold front crosses the region tonight, dry weather with
seasonable temperatures will return for Monday into Tuesday, with
gradually lowering levels of humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Very little convection seen on the radar at
this time across our area. There is a small cluster of showers
across Washington, Rensselaer and Bennington Counties, and they
are moving eastward. However, as has been the trend through much
of the evening, this activity should tend to weaken due to weaker
instability and greater convective inhibition.

A pre-frontal trough was noted still hanging back over central
NY. This slow-moving trough has been the focus for convective
development and it will eventually move eastward into our area
overnight. There are some pressure rises upstream, which should
help to accelerate the movement of the trough. The main cold
front was positioned farther north and west, north of Lake
Ontario. This secondary boundary will move through early Monday
morning.

It will be a warm humid night with temperatures only dropping
into the 60s for much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few lingering showers are possible early Monday as the upper
level trough clears the area.

High pressure will build in Monday afternoon. The high controls the
weather into Tuesday. High temperatures will still be slightly
above normal, although lower dew points (PWATS will be 2 standard
deviations below normal) and high pressure cresting over the CWA
Monday night will set the stage for near normal lows - mainly 50s
valley locations, 40s higher elevations of Catskills, Greens, and
Adirondacks.

A cold front will move into the area on Wednesday. Forcing is not
particularly strong with this feature. PWATS rebound back up to
near normal levels for late August. Better instability is noted
across the northern CWA. With this in mind, will keep POPS in the
chance category now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out Wednesday night with a cold front moving
southward across the region. By Wednesday evening the front looks to
be somewhere near the middle of the forecast area, in vicinity of
the Capital District. So will mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorm south of where the front is expected to be, and slight
chance to the north to account for any delay in timing.

By Thursday morning, the cold front should be south of the region,
although the associated upper level trough axis will lag behind the
front and looks to move across the area during the day Thursday.
There will be limited moisture and virtually no instability to work
with, so will hold pops to 20 percent for now. Cooler and drier air
will already start to build in during the day Thursday. High
temperatures expected to be slightly below normal for the first time
in a while.

A cool early fall air mass with below normal temperatures will take
hold from Thursday night into the first part of the upcoming
weekend, as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in. Mainly
clear conditions with deep blue skies should prevail during this
time. Highs on Friday will likely be around 5-10 degrees below
normal. The coolest morning looks to be Saturday as the surface high
will be centered over the region. Lows expected to range from the
lower 40s to lower 50s.

Temperatures will moderate back to near normal Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, as the surface high drifts to our southeast and a
southerly starts to develop. As upper level heights steadily rise,
mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures in store for much of
the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region tonight into early Monday
morning. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorm over
central NY will gradually move eastward later in the evening.
Chances for convection hitting any specific terminal remains rather
low around 30 percent, so will mention VCSH at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Main
time frame looks to be between 01Z-06Z for convection. Hires models
indicating activity will not hold together before reaching KPOU, so
no mention there.

Behind the cold front, skies will gradually clear after sunrise
Monday, with drier air moving in. Winds tonight will be southerly
around 5-10 kt, becoming northwest at 10-12 kt on Monday, with gusts
near 20 kt at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across
the region tonight evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Any
thunderstorm will have the potential for locally gusty winds and
heavy rainfall. Once the cold front clears the region overnight,
dry weather with seasonable temperatures will return for Monday
into Tuesday, with lowering humidity.

Relative humidity values will recover to 90 to 100 percent
tonight and Monday night, and drop to 45 to 60 percent on Monday.

Winds will be south 5 to 15 mph tonight, and northwest at 5 to 15 mph
on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance of rain is tonight associated with a frontal
boundary. Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch to a trace
scaling from northwest to southeast across the Hydrologic Service
Area. No hydro problems are anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/OKeefe/JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/OKeefe/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe



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