Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.