Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 011530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING NEAR RENO/NV.
HOWEVER...UPPER FLOW IS TOWARD THE NNW AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTEERNOON SHOULD STAY WEST OF EVEN HARNEY COUNTY.  BUT THEN
SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL RECURVE NEWD ACROSS NRN BAKER COUNTY. WE
WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTANS OF BAKER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SERN OREGON ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE CWA.  LATEST NAM ALSO SHOWS COOLING MONDAY WHICH IS AT ODDS
WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR OTHER MODELS BEFORE
MAKING ANY CHANGES.  FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VARIABLE WINDS 10KT OR LESS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE DAY.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONVECTION HASN/T BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGION FOR NOW.
ONLY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE
OREGON COAST. FOR TODAY...WILL SEE A MINOR WARMING FROM YESTERDAY
AS THE HIGH INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH...BUT WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASE.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST HIGH ELEVATION AREAS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A SLOWLY
DECAYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WITH AN
IMPULSE LIFTING NE OVER SW IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FOLLOWED BY
SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SE AK TODAY
WOBBLES ACROSS SW CANADA FINALLY LATE ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK UNSETTLED WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST. MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS UP AND THE RIDGE IS
SLOWER TO EXIT SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WERE INCREASED AS WELL.
MOISTURE AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND IMPULSES PROVIDE LIFT IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LOWER THREAT OF STORMS MOVES IN MID WEEK IN
BOTH GFS/EC MODELS. GFS/EC DO SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN U.S./B.C. CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...AND AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



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