Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
846 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...High clouds are filling in this evening across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Flow aloft will keep cloud
cover over the area into Sunday morning before a shift to more
southerly flow takes them northward. Conditions are dry and cool
overnight with light winds. Forecast has this handled well so no


.AVIATION...VFR. SCT mid and BKN-OVC high level ceilings. Surface
winds variable 10 knots or less. Winds aloft southerly 15-25 knots
surface to 5K feet MSL, becoming southwesterly 30-40 knots above 5K
feet MSL.


SHORT TERM...Upper ridge will amplify over the interior West
Sunday as Pacific trough nears the coast.  This will bring
several degrees warming from today.  Ridge will shift east Monday
but increasing southerly wind component aloft, and southeast or
southerly winds at the surface, will continue the warm weather into
Monday.  Models generate light pcpn in our CWA Monday afternoon as
moisture advects in from the southwest, but PoPs will be kept low
until Monday evening.  As mentioned, southerly winds will increase
Monday afternoon, especially in Harney County and southern Malheur
County where speeds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected.
Elsewhere southeast winds 10 to 20 mph are expected.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...A weak Pacific cold
front will push through the region Monday night into Tuesday,
bringing widespread showers to the area. Portions of the Treasure
Valley are expected to received between 0.05-0.1 inches of rainfall,
while areas of the central Idaho mountains could receive anywhere
from 0.3-0.5 inches of rain over the 24 hour period. Will likely see
snowfall above 7500 ft and temperatures are expected to drop about 5-
8 degrees, coming down to about normal. By Tuesday night, the cold
front will have cleared the region and an occluded front will trail
close behind. This front will bring showers to southeast Oregon,
before quickly pulling north, placing the region under a building
ridge. This will bounce temperatures back up 5-8 degrees, bringing
them above the seasonal norm for Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecaster certainty breaks down at this point with run to run
differences and little model agreement. At this point, expecting
generally unsettled weather and a temperature drop of about 5
degrees as an upper low continues to develop off the West Coast.





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