Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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145
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA



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