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000
FXUS65 KBOI 182110
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE THE PAC
NW COAST MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW /RAIN
COOLED AIR/ THROUGH SW IDAHO THIS EVENING BRINING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS /POTENIALLY UP TO 30 KTS/. PRECIPTIATION OVERNIGHT
WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
BOISE MTNS INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IN SE OREGON...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION THREAT DIMINSHING BY MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL OREGON
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITH THE GREATER
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS FAVORING HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. THE LOW
LIFTS INTO SE WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINSHING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITAION ACROSS ALL BUT THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
REMAIN DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
BUT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN WHEN CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES. AFTER SATURDAY THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND IS
QUITE MOIST SO HAVE INTRODUCED LOTS OF CLOUDINESS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TUESDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SE OREGON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER SW
IDAHO.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL...OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO SW IDAHO TONIGHT...GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-15
KNOTS...LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.  WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA/KA
AVIATION.....JA