Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS65 KBOU 051650
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEE LITTLE NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNNY SKIES AND A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL DELIVER A WARM SPRING DAY
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL MAY ALSO DEVELOP. DECREASING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO HIGH CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER
FROM THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN TAIL FF OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN COLORADO
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER ERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THIN SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AT THE
PRESENT TIME MARKS THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MID-MAY SUN TO
DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPS
TODAY MAY POSSIBLY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12-
15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. NORMAL HIGH FOR DENVER TODAY IS
67.

IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SIMILAR HEATING THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN A FEW
GUSTY T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT W-SWLY TRANSPORT WINDS COULD
STEER ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS OVER NEARBY VALLEY FLOOR AND
FOOTHILL AREAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OVERALL SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE ONCE THE GUSTY S-SELY GRADIENT WINDS ON THE PLAINS
SUBSIDE NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...SPOTTY HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WARM SWLY
FLOW AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE MOST AREAS A VERY MILD
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED. HOWEVER
MODELS SHOW A FRONT CREEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
MID 40 TO LOWER 50S. TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE DRY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2500 JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH A STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. STRONG SHEAR AND GOOD
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT. EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
STATE AND EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN AFTER THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOST
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGHINESS OVER/NEAR WYOMING. THE LOW WEAKENS...SO
CONVECTION WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COOL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE
ABOVE 12000 FEET MSL. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER THE
SUN GOES DOWN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.