Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
ESSENTIALLY UNLIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCTS FROM THE SHOWERS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAK
WIND FIELDS UNTIL GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS


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