Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 292131
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
331 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Current satellite imagery shows upper level circulation over
Central Kansas wrapping moisture around and into eastern Colorado.
This will keep mostly cloudy conditions over the eastern area
through the rest of the afternoon. Elsewhere clearing will bring
partly cloudy skies to the higher terrain and western Colorado
helping to bring temperatures into the lower 50s. Under the cloud
cover over portions of Washington and Lincoln counties highs may
be a few degrees cooler. Increasing ridging in the upper levels
behind the trough will help to clear out skies overnight and drop
temperatures into the lower 30s. By the early morning hours BL
moisture will be high enough over the NE plains that some areas
could see some patchy fog. Elsewhere the lower levels will be a
tad too dry for much if any mist formation. With the exiting low
winds will stay elevated through the afternoon with gusts up to 30
mph possible.

By Thursday the next upper level feature will be just west of the
divide with increasing moisture ahead of it. This moisture will
get trapped under the ridge and increase clouds and eventually
bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains by Thursday late
afternoon. With increasing QG lift ahead of the next upper level
feature even though weak could be enough for some light snow at
higher elevations. On the plains conditions will be warming and
dry with highs in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...Stormy weather pattern remains in place through early next
week...

Attention is quickly turning toward next storm system in the
Pacific. This storm will drop southeast into the Great Basin
Thursday night. From there, some uncertainty still exists with
the eventual storm track although solutions are slowly coming into
better agreement. NAM and GFS do seem too aggressive with their
eastward shift into far northern New Mexico by mid day Saturday,
while preference at this time lies with the CMC and ECMWF showing
the upper low stalling out in northwest New Mexico. As a result,
the TROWAL and warm conveyor belt may never be able to reach the
northern Front Range. There should still be significant
precipitation amounts averaging close to an inch with heavier
amounts upwards of 1.5 inches in the foothills given the high
precipitable water and persistent upslope. Magnitude of upslope
will also depend on how close the main circulation center makes it
this way before eventually filling. At this time, will favor the
CMC/EC blend and trend back a bit from the very aggressive GFS
QPF, which has had a significant high bias in the QPF with storms
lately.

What we can say with more certainty is that more cold air is
associated with this system, both aloft and backdooring across the
plains from the northeast. This should allow rain to change over
to snow down to around 5000 feet or below by late Friday night and
Saturday morning, with a rain/snow mix all the way down onto the
lower plains of far northeast Colorado possible. Accumulation
amounts are difficult to pin down at this point, but appears we
have potential for at least a couple inches of slushy snow
accumulation along the I-25 Urban Corridor, and several inches
over the Palmer Divide to more than a foot in portions of the
Front Range Foothills and Mountains. Still a bit early for any
watches since heart of storm starts Friday afternoon. This storm
is expected to push southeast/fill Saturday with decreasing
precipitation.

Then an upper level ridge will build in Sunday, before the next
storm system approaches by Monday night. Actually think this next
system will have just as good or better potential to produce
accumulating snow by Tuesday given its farther north track and
colder air to work with. We`ll continue to watch this potential
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon. Gusts up
to 25 mph possible through 23z. Winds will veer around to drainage
by 12z with speeds from 8 to 15 mph. Upper level moisture will
increase by 12z with a 220 ceiling ahead of the next weather
system.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen


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