Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 222021
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
421 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will pass to our south and west tonight,
with nothing more than a brief shower or two across the Cape and
Islands. It will be cooler across eastern New England Sunday, but
still warm in the Connecticut Valley. Cool, damp and unsettled
weather follows for Monday and Tuesday with improvement
Wednesday. Some showers and thundershowers possible again
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Southern New England will be in between a sprawling high pressure
over southeast Canada and northernmost New England, and a low
pressure somewhere along the Mid Atlantic coast from NJ to the
Delmarva Peninsula. This low pressure to our south will likely be
the remnants of a mesoscale convective system affecting that area
tonight. For us, winds will turn to a northeasterly direction. Skies
will be cloudy, and there is a chance of showers, mainly over
northern CT, RI, and southeast MA, closer to the low pressure. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

Low pressure will continue passing southeast of the region. It may
cause scattered showers, mainly along the south coast in the
morning. Then we should see a period of increasing sunshine
through mid afternoon. Light easterly wind flow will keep eastern MA
temperatures cool, in the low to mid 70s near the coast, but the
partial sunshine could allow the CT River Valley to reach into the
80s. There is very little consensus on max temperatures for Boston
tomorrow across the models. Given the easterly wind, it is likely
that Boston will remain in the lower 70s for most of the day. The
GFS seems far too warm for the eastern coast, but could be correct
for the Connecticut River Valley where things will be able to heat
up a lot faster.

Sunday night...

Skies will attempt to clear ahead of an approaching low pressure,
allowing for minimal radiational cooling. However, temperatures will
drop down into the low 60s, and even 50s in northern Massachusetts.

Chances of showers increase again after midnight, mainly across
northern CT and western MA, ahead of advancing low pressure. The
main area of rain will likely not move into the region until
after 12Z Monday. The NAM suggests that most of the area will remain
dry throughout the morning. However, guidance from the GFS and ECMWF
both agree on a late morning arrival. Opted to go more with the
GFS/ECMWF timing, which was more in line with the previous forecast.

Areas of patchy fog are possible along the southern coast of New
England before midnight, and will likely persist and move northward
throughout the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mon: Below normal temps with some showers likely at times
* Tue: A few leftover showers possible w/below normal temps
* Temps moderate mid to late next week but still below average
* Another round of showers possible Thu/Thu night but not a washout

Overview and model preferences...
Synoptically there is little significant disagreement with the
mean jet remaining along the N CONUS, generally preventing
subtropical warmth/moisture from reaching into New England
through the period. This suggests the continued thinking of
temperatures mainly at or below normal. Will be following this
trend with this update regardless of the preferred model
guidance. Initially weakening trof Mon-Tue will give way to
brief shortwave ridging as a second robust wave slides through
the mean jet from the PACNW later in the week. Therefore, an
unsettled start will give way to a brief dry period followed by
another short period of unsettled wx, pretty typical New England
summertime pattern when the mean jet rests this far S. Not
seeing significant enough differences in the overall pattern to
favor any one model. Therefore, will use a general consensus
blend for this update.

Details...

Mon and Tue...
Early Mon, will need to monitor the track of remnant
convection/MCS which will moving ENE from the OH Valley into
NY/PA. This convection looks to generate a weak cold pool low
pres which will slide near or just S of New England into early
Tue. Given much of the initial convection will be driven by
mesoscale processes, confidence on how quickly any
precip/storms associated will make it into New England. However,
with weakening shortwave moving in, the development of weak low
pres, as well as an increase in column moisture (PWATS reach
1.25-1.50 inches), do expect to see on and off SHRA activity
much of Mon into early Tue. E flow suggests sfc based convection
somewhat unlikely although as previous forecaster noted there
is modest instability aloft. Heights will be rising as the trof
weakens, which also may mitigate convective development.
Therefore, although unsettled, coverage will be showery with
breaks, with only a low risk for an isolated thunderstorm given
the mitigating factors. Otherwise, E flow and clouds will keep
highs mainly at or below normal, while overnight mins near
normal thanks to raised dwpts in the 60s.

Wed...
Ridging will follow the exit of the weakened trof. As of now,
high pres associated with this ridging will have it`s strongest
influence on Wed, as it could give way enough to yield some
unsettled wx by Thu. Subsidence and generally dry wx is
expected. Ridgeline is generally SW to NE oriented, suggest a
slight wedge of cooler air from the Canadian Maritimes.
Therefore in spite of more sunshine, highs will likely still
fall at or below normal.

Thu...
Timing uncertainties for Thu. As mentioned above, the weak
ridge and attendant sfc high pres will be sliding ENE out of
the region, however the speed with which it does so will be
strongly dependent on how much deepening the approaching trof
undergoes. ECMWF is faster than the GFS, with ensembles on
either side. The faster solution would bring an afternoon cold
front through, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
while the slower solution favors a mainly dry forecast, keeping
the stronger forcing well upstream. Will feature some lower-end
POPs for the possibility, but will need to monitor model shifts
temporally. Otherwise, a slight uptick in mid lvl temps, closer
to +13C or +14C at H85, suggest that with at least some sun
ahead of the approaching front, highs will reach near to
possibly even above normal in some spots.

Fri and Sat...
Cold front may linger Fri, with the potential for
showers/thundershowers remaining, however general consensus is
that it should be offshore by Fri night with a drier start to
next weekend. Temperatures near normal based on current forecast
mid lvl temp spread.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Winds shifting to the northeast as high pressure builds to our north
and low pressure passes to our south. Winds gust to 20 kt,
especially from Cape Ann to Mass Bay and Provincetown. Waves 1-3 ft.

Sunday...

Northeast winds continue at 15-20 kts with seas building to 3-4 ft.
Small chance of showers along the Cape and Islands.

Sunday night...

Northeast winds will turn due east late, with sustained winds at 10
kts. Winds will gust up to 20 kts across the waters. Waves 3-4 ft.

KBOS Terminal...VFR. Sea-breezes forecast to move out around 00Z
tonight.

KBDL Terminal...VFR.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Mon into early Tue...Moderate confidence.
Mix of IFR/MVFR conditions in a mix of low CIGS/occasional SHRA
and fog. E winds, gusting to 25 kt near shore but weaker
inland. Winds shift to the N early Tue and begin to subside.
Can`t rule out a few breaks to VFR, especially inland, but lower
categories likely dominate.

Late Tue into Wed...High confidence.
Improvement to VFR with drier weather to follow, weakened W-NE
winds.

Thu...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible. Winds S,
may gust to around 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.

Today...Light northwest winds allowing for daytime sea breezes.
Winds becoming south over the eastern MA waters this
afternoon/evening. Seas 1-3 ft.

Tonight...Winds shifting to the northeast as high pressure
builds to our north and low pressure passes to our south. Winds
gust to 20 kt, especially from Cape Ann to Mass Bay and
Provincetown. Chance of showers late. Local visibilities reduced
to 1-3 miles in fog late. Seas 1-3 ft.

Sunday...Northeast winds continue at 15-20 kt with seas building
to 3-4 ft. Chance of showers, especially south coast in the
morning.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Mon and Tue...Moderate confidence.
Low pres will be passing along the S waters late Mon into Mon
night. Winds will shift from E, to NE then finally to N by Tue.
Wind gusts during this time may gust to around 25 kt. Also, seas
mainly across the SE and E waters will reach about 5 ft as the
low pres passes. Therefore, small craft advisories may be
necessary. Showers and fog possible through the period.

Wed...High confidence.
Seas will subside, winds remain below 20 kt. Quiet boating
weather expected.

Thu...Moderate confidence.
S winds may gust to around 25 kt during the afternoon,
especially along the E coast. Small craft advisories may be
needed.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody/Correia
NEAR TERM...Belk/Correia
SHORT TERM...Belk/Correia
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Correia
MARINE...Belk/Doody/Correia



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