Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 050544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO THIS WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED EVEN ACROSS SE MA WHERE PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK
HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. NOTING SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING WINDS
BELOW 10 KT. THEREFORE...WITH DWPTS SLOWLY DECLINING INTO THE LOW
50S AND UPPER 40S...STILL ON TRACK FOR A COOL AND REFRESHING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT COOLER UPPER 40S IN COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND
INTERIOR E MA. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL PRONE
LOCATIONS FOR RADIATION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT BUILDS OVER SNE
GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SUNNY DAYS EXPECTED SAT
AND SUN WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SAT WITH
COASTAL SEABREEZES...POSSIBLY WARMING INTO LOWER 80S CT VALLEY
AND INTERIOR NE MA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTH DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SAT NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. 04/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WE STILL EXPECT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE.

CURRENT EXPECTATION IS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE
TIMING FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE CAN
SEE A SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NE WINDS ASSISTED BY SEA BREEZES TODAY. SW WINDS WITH SEA
BREEZES SUN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY
16Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. DROPPED MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY
THIS EVENING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS STILL SHOWING SEAS LINGERING
ABOUT 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

SAT INTO SUN...HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC


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