Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 282334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Clearing skies tonight will give way to more clouds before
sunrise as a cold front approaches the region. The front will
produce another chance for showers Saturday, followed by
noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. More chances for rain
enter the forecast early next week as a low pressure system
moves through the Great Lakes region.


As of 733 PM EDT Friday...Previous forecast remains in
excellent shape with a dry and mild night on tap. Only change
made was to tweak temperature trends over the next few hours as
most of Vermont still sits in the low/mid 70s as of the current
hour, with northern New York mainly in the mid 60s.

Previous Discussion...Clouds decreasing this afternoon
behind the weak front. Surface dewpoints have dropped from the
50s into the 40s, while temperatures have rebounded into the
70s. Clear skies to persist for the first half of the night,
then moisture advances into the region at the mid levels in
advance of the next surface front. The forecast area is under
the influence of 500mb westerly flow between high pressure
centered off the mid atlantic coast and a trough over northern
Quebec. Shortwave trough will sweep through southern Quebec to
help move the surface front through.

Dry forecast tonight, with southerly winds much of the night
recovering from today`s cold front. Lows generally in the 50s
in the Champlain valley and 40s elsewhere. The shortwave trough
passes Saturday morning, with low level winds turning westerly
and chance pops mainly central/southern portion of forecast
area. Saturday the front pushes south from the Canadian border
about mid day, and westerly winds turn northerly with cold air
advection beginning. There will be time for mid day high temps
to warm into the 60s before the cooldown begins.


As of 255 PM EDT Friday...Differences continue between the
models on strength of cold air behind the front Saturday night
and Sunday. However they have trended cooler overall which gives
me better confidence in the cooler temperatures.

Cool northerly flow behind Saturday`s front will persist
Saturday night, and low temperatures will be mainly in the 30s.
Some partial clearing in the dry post-frontal flow, however
toward morning clouds increasing from west to east in advance of
our next system. As flow turns southerly on Sunday surface warm
front will be located east to west near the border. NAM is the
outlier in breaking out light precipitation along this warm
front Sunday morning, while the rest wait until Sunday
afternoon/night to bring precip in west to east along the front.
Will trend with the consensus but will need to keep an eye for
earlier precip development. Higher QPF focus nearer the
Canadian border at 1/2 to 3/4 inch, and less than a tenth in the

For max temps on Sunday the NAM continues to be the cooler of
the models, with 49 degrees at BTV. I couldn`t go that cold,
but did user a cooler blend to undercut MAV guidance and give
lower 50s in Champlain Valley and 40s north and higher
elevations. Sunday night southerly flow returns as warm front
lifts further north, and lows into the 40s.


As of 402 PM EDT Friday...ECMWF and GFS models showing a rather
unsettled period across the North Country with chances for rain
showers just about every day.

Have mostly stuck with superblend pops and guidance through the
period. Monday forecast looks difficult with GFS and ECMWF
models showing a warm front near the international border. The
NAM model has this warm front a bit further to the south on
Monday. Where ever this warm front set up, there is a potential
for a big bust of max temperatures on Monday, with temperatures
being either cooler or warmer than forecast. Thus, have stuck
with superblend guidance at this time.

A cold front will move through the region Monday night, bringing
more rain showers to the region. The region will remain in
cyclonic flow Tuesday and Wednesday from a low pressure area
over southern Quebec, so will continue with a chance of rain
showers on these days. Model guidance hinting at mostly dry
weather Wednesday night and Thursday.

Guidance hinting at a low pressure area moving northeast from
the southeastern U.S. on Friday, with more rain showers moving
into the region.

On a personal note, this is my final shift as I will officially
retire on May 1, after working for the past 37 years, 18 years
here at BTV. I enjoyed working with many wonderful people over
the years. This I will miss in retirement. In the words of the
immortal Samuel A Branch, Good bye and Good luck, or as the late
John McLaughlin would say "BYE BYE"!!!


Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with FEW-SCT mid/high clouds gradually increasing in
coverage and lowering to 6-10kft by 12Z Saturday. Chance for
some scattered shower activity Saturday mid-day/afternoon as a
weak upper disturbance traverses the area, but expect any
showers will be light and not restrict flight conditions. Light
west/southwest winds overnight trend to northwest by mid-day
Saturday with gusts up to 20kts after 18Z.


Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Occasional SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.




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