Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 232334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLEARING LINE
APPROACHING SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST INDICATES.
ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECASTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY
LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY
MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS
TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP
THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU
06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK
TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND
20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT
SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER






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