Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 031153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
OVERNIGHT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. ONE DAY OF BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY - WITH VALLEY HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S IN SPOTS. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EST TUESDAY...CENTER OF MODERATELY STRONG
(1032-1034MB) SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD ACROSS
PA/NJ/NY EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/VE SEEN
GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO AT BTV...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND
FAR NERN VT. LOCALLY AS COLD AS -18F AT KSLK AT 11Z. ALL IN
ALL...A TRANQUIL BUT COLD MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FULL SUN EARLY ON ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HRS (UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS
BY NOONTIME).

RIDGE AXIS SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EAST OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-
LEVEL WAA MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO OUR
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON...WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO COMMENCE ACROSS
NRN NY 21-22Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT 22-00Z. ALTHOUGH THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...REGION OF
850-700MB WAA IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE MOVING ACROSS NY AND VT BETWEEN
00-03Z...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. THAT
SAID...00Z NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET (60-65 KTS AT 4-5 KFT)...AND THIS ALLOWS BEST
FORCING/WAA TO TRANSLATE PAST OUR AREA RATHER QUICKLY BY 04-06Z
TONIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING AT THAT
TIME...SO THE STEADY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT-1AM
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY FINE SNOW
CRYSTALS REMAINING 06-12Z TONIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING...WILL SEE A
QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...AND
LOCALLY 3-5" IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
N-CENTRAL/NERN VT...WHERE WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED.
IMPACTS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SOME TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS DUE
TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY
HOVER IN THE MID-UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE STREAK
OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AOB FREEZING SHOULD COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AT MONTPELIER...WHERE THE LAST READING ABOVE 32F
OCCURRED ON JANUARY 19TH. STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL YIELD SOME WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER...BUT OVERALL LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS IN PLACE.
AT THE SAME TIME...POSITIVE TILT MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FRONTAL
ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL FORCING...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A
TIME ACROSS VT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE LOW- LEVEL N-NW FLOW AND FILTERED SUN LEAD TO
COLDER DAYTIME TEMP READINGS ON THURSDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS (ROUGHLY 15DEG BELOW AVG IN
MANY SPOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL ALSO HAVING SLIGHT
RIDGING. LATE FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SILL SINK SOUTH AND WEST PUTTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SLIGHT WARMING BEGINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG DISTURBANCE/TROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

NONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO HAVE STRONG
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS TO L20S. SATURDAY ONWARD, MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM L20S-M30S. MORE NOTICEABLE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH MIN TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MINS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT KMSS/KSLK TO SEE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS STARTING BETWEEN 19Z-22Z, SPREADING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND VERMONT BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE STEADY SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z-05Z. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 05Z AS SNOW TAPERS OFF. KSLK COULD
SEE SOME FZDZ AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN ALOFT AFTER 10Z.

WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH 15-30 KT GUSTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY AT
KPBG AND KSLK. ANY BREAKS IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING
OCCURS LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM


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