Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

High pressure continues to build southward out of Canada this
afternoon. A clear and cold night is expected overnight, with
low temperatures widely varying from the single digits to the
upper teens above zero. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for
Sunday and Monday as developing low pressure over the central
U.S. pushes the front back north Sunday afternoon into Monday,
with periods of rain, snow and mixed precipitation expected
through mid-week. A winter weather advisory has been raised for
light freezing rain.


As of 318 PM EDT Saturday...As high pressure continues to ridge
into the North Country out of Canada this afternoon and evening
skies will clear from North to South. Clear skies, light winds
and the late season cold snowpack overnight will bring about
another cold overnight period, generally single digits and
teens. Some high clouds will try to advance from the southwest
towards early morning. The overnight period will be dry.


As of 318 PM EDT Saturday....More active weather returns for the
short term portion of the forecast. Have raised a winter weather
advisory for Western Essex County NY, and from the spine of the
Greens Eastward for light ice accumulations. On Sunday
precipitation will begin from the southwest and spread across
our forecast area during the afternoon hours. Precipitation
should hold off till after 18z and by that time temperatures
should be warm enough across most of the region to just expect
rain at that point. Temperatures should warm pretty quickly with
some morning sun across our northern zones and warm air
advection all day as low pressure system lifts Northward into
Great Lakes region. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower
40s across almost the entire north country. The only exception
will be Western Essex county NY where there will be a threat for
some freezing rain. Have gone warmer than most MOS guidance for
Sunday night due to clouds and precipitation, as well as warm
air advection across the region, but still looks cold enough
especially east of the Greens to cause some icing issues. Sunday
night low pressure system continues to push eastward towards our
area, with more precipitation expected. Have some categorical
pops mentioned overnight and then continuing into Monday with a
front lifting across our area. Warmer air aloft moves gradually
eastward over the top of the shallow layer of colder air,
bringing with it the threat for mixed precipitation especially
east of the Greens. Colder air is tough to scour out there. It
does not take very much icing to impact travel. By about 15z
Monday warm air advection should be strong enough to have our
entire area raise about freezing with lower to mid 40s for
afternoon high temperatures. The low pressure system will be
very slow to push east of our region, and think there will still
be some showers around on Monday night, but temperatures should
remain warm enough to preclude any further issues. Mixed
precipitation always presents a complicated forecast.


As of 359 PM EDT Saturday...A cold front will approach the
region on Tuesday, with mainly rain showers expected, so have
gone with mainly likely pops. Expecting rain showers to continue
into Tuesday night, before changing to snow showers late
Tuesday night, mainly over the higher elevations of the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A chance of rain and snow
showers will continue into Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure
will build into the region on Thursday and Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected.

ECMWF and GFS models showing differences for Friday night and
Saturday, with the GFS model having a high pressure area over
the region with fair and dry weather. The ECMWF model brings a
low pressure area up through the Great Lakes Friday night and
Saturday, so have stuck with the superblend pops and will have
a chance of rain and snow showers for Friday night and Saturday.
Given model differences for Friday night and Saturday,
forecaster confidence is low at this time.


Through 18Z Sunday...Low clouds have been slow to erode from
the north country this afternoon, with areas of IFR/MVFR
ceilings. Expecting skies to gradually clear out overnight as a
ridge of high pressure builds southeast from Canada overnight.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions across Vermont and northern New
York by 04Z Sunday through 18Z Sunday. Composite radar loop at
1753Z Saturday showing some precipitation over southern Vermont
at this time. This precipitation will move south of the region

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...mainly VFR.

00Z Monday through 00Z Thursday...periods of mixed
precipitation, though mainly rain with cigs/vsby variable from
IFR to MVFR. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday.

00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR, except for some
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.


VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday
     for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-017>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday
     for NYZ034.


NEAR TERM...Neiles
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