Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 040528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT. SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FOR
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS KEPT SOME SCT SHOWERS GOING OVER CNTRL VT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. HAVE INCREASED
THE POPS TO CHC VALUES ALONG THE I-91 CORRIDOR AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 09Z-12Z. DRIER
CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSING SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS WRN-NRN NY. NOT MUCH
OF A WINDSHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST WITH M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH
A FEW U40S/L50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT
STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS
KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD
SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR TEMPO IFR
MIST AT SLK.  MAINLY VFR TUESDAY...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

GENERALLY DRY WITH FEW TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
ENOUGH CLEARING TO PRODUCE IFR MIST AT SLK BUT WILL LIKELY
OSCILLATE.  WINDS LIGHT TO SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS.

EXPECT AN EARLIER START TIME FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AS SOON AS 15Z.  I/VE SHOWN 6SM SHRA THRU
20Z WITH VCSH REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.  WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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