Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers
will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this
afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt
behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper
50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday with slightly above normal


As of 347 PM EDT Monday...A mid level dry slot is building into the
North Country as evident on the latest WV imagery. This drier air
is working to counter act much of the potential for any shower
development by significantly reducing precipitable water. Yesterday
we were looking at PWATs of 1.7-1.9 and today we are down to 0.9-
1.2" across the North Country. There also just isn`t much surface
convergence or forcing for any shower development. So I`m not sold
on much more than a couple of isolated showers developing and so
I`ve just got mention of slight chance for the rest of this

Once the cold front drags through the area expect drier air to move
into the low levels as well and bring down our overnight lows into
the 50s.  The cooler air and calmer winds overnight may see some
patchy fog developing mainly along the sheltered river basins.

Tuesday will be a dry day with increasing partly to mostly cloudy
skies under high pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps
only 14C-16C highs should finally drop into the upper 70s across
most of the area with low 80s possible in the Champlain and
Connecticut river valleys.


As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.


As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.


.AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.




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