Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING TODAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TO
MVFR. IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    5/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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