Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 081737
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1037 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Raised temperatures a little this afternoon for Billings. Even
though the low temperatures was 3 below this morning, with plenty
of sunshine, temperatures should warm high than 5 degrees. Wind
chill values around Baker continue to be 20 to 25 below, so will
let the Wind Chill Advisory continue until it expires. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Active weather pattern in store across our forecast area through
at the short term and beyond. A strong jet stream is progged to
move onshore across the Pacific northwest and move eastward across
the northern Rockies today into Saturday. This flow will also
bring abundant Pacific moisture across these areas as well, with
nearly continuous snow for the mountain locations across Idaho, as
well as western Montana and Wyoming.

Models keep things precip-free today with the exception of some
mountains snow showers. However, by tonight a disturbance within a
northwest flow aloft will bring increasing snow shower chances for
our western areas mainly west of Billings overnight and spreading
east toward Miles City during the day Friday. Dynamics are not
strong with this system with accumulations looking to be around a
half inch for the above mentioned areas with a couple inches for
the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains.

Models then bring a stronger disturbance across the forecast area
Friday night along with Pacific moisture overrunning the current
arctic air in place. The GFS is snowier than the ECMWF, but both
models bring snow across the western and central portions of the
forecast area. The best chances look to be along and north of a
Livingston- Billings-Forsyth line where accumulations could be in
the 2-4 inch range. As a result, I did increase precip chances to
likely for these areas Friday night. However, we will hold off on
any advisories given the event is 48 hours out and there remains
some uncertainty.

Temperatures will again be in the single digits to lower teens
today and Friday. Although there are some indications the arctic
may retreat briefly across the Beartooth/Absaroka foothills where
temperatures may reach the 20s on Friday. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...


On Saturday, warm/moist air overrunning the arctic air looks to
bring some light snow to the area...but with westerly 700 mb winds
think that downsloping is going to dry out the lower atmosphere
some. Could receive some light snowfall amounts (generally less
than an inch over the plains and a few inches over the
Beartooth/Absaroka/Bighorn Mountains).

A shortwave ridge over the northern Plains should then propagate
eastward Saturday night...which should help to push the surface
high associated with the arctic air mass to the east. This
changing surface pressure pattern should allow our surface winds
to turn southwesterly. These winds should bring in relatively
warmer air that has been sitting to our southwest late Saturday
night into Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday could approach the
freezing mark in the lower elevations of south central MT and
north central WY...teens for eastern MT where arctic air will
linger a little longer.

For Sunday night into Monday...an arctic front looks to drop
southward across MT...plunging temperatures again. A period of
light snow is possible with the front late Sunday night into early
Monday, although the timing is a bit uncertain at this lead time. The
arctic air mass then largely looks to stay entrenched through
next Thursday with some fluctuations in temperatures day-to-day as
waves rotate through upper cyclonic flow centered over Canada.
The Tue.-Thu. period looks mostly dry as upper ridging should
suppress most precipitation development, though a stray snow
shower cannot be ruled out if a wave travels close enough to the
area. RMS/Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...


Most of the region will see VFR conditions and light winds today.
A band of occasional MVFR/IFR cloud cover will persist along the
eastern state line into the afternoon as well, including the KBHK
vicinity. RMS/Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 009 904/008 004/018 008/026 005/011 000/015 004/019
    1/U 23/S    64/J    22/J    34/J    31/B    11/B
LVM 010 001/023 016/029 019/030 013/018 002/017 008/023
    1/B 44/S    65/J    32/J    34/J    23/J    22/J
HDN 011 000/013 007/017 006/026 003/014 903/015 000/019
    1/U 12/S    44/J    22/J    34/J    21/B    11/B
MLS 004 906/005 901/008 903/018 000/007 906/011 901/014
    0/U 02/S    64/J    22/J    34/J    21/B    11/B
4BQ 006 905/010 004/015 003/025 003/013 903/014 002/018
    0/U 01/E    34/J    22/J    33/J    21/B    11/B
BHK 001 913/003 904/006 906/015 902/004 907/008 902/011
    0/B 01/E    34/J    22/J    22/J    21/B    10/B
SHR 011 902/016 009/023 009/027 004/014 903/012 002/020
    1/U 11/E    24/J    22/J    23/J    32/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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