Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230850
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
250 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Upper shortwave was seen on water vapor imagery moving through
NW MT early this morning. Associated cold front will be through
the forecast area by 12Z. The shortwave will move E along the
MT/Canadian border today and other weaker energy will follow it
over the forecast area. Some high level moisture will develop over
the SW mountains this afternoon bringing a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be dry...windy and cooler.
Temperatures will reach the 80s, but RH`s will fall into the teens
and 20s. WRF Bufkit soundings showed the highest winds will be
generally E of KBIL. So, regarding the Fire Weather Watch, the
area that will meet the wind and RH criteria will be Big Horn
county E as well as Custer County. Will go ahead and issue a Red
Flag warning for this afternoon and evening for these areas.
Overall, winds across the area will be in the 15 to 25 mph range
with gusts to around 30 mph.

Weak shortwaves will continue to cross the region tonight, but
again only high level moisture will be present. Thus confined PoPs
to the high elevations. Weak upper ridging builds into the area
Sun. through Sun. night. Despite some shortwave energy near the
mountains, the airmass aloft looked dry, so kept these periods
dry. Sunday will be a little warmer than today with continued low
humidities. The winds will be much lighter than today`s winds.
Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

A somewhat active weather pattern without extreme temperatures is
in store for our cwa through the extended period.

Zonal flow with a series of Pacific shortwaves can be expected
Monday thru Wednesday, resulting in at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms each day. Greatest potential will exist in our east
where precipitable waters will be highest, on the order of 0.75
inches to an inch. Easterly flow will prevail for our east,
resulting in a gradual increase in moisture/instability, and it is
possible that there could be some severe weather in our east by
Wednesday.

Strong central plains ridge aloft will shift toward the great
basin, allowing for flow to veer to the NW with additional energy
dropping out of western Canada from late Wednesday through
Thursday night. This appears to be the period with greatest
potential for wetting showers, and have thus painted highest
pops. Latest model consensus is for ridging/drying by the end of
the week, so have trended pops down for Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures should be a little warmer than normal with highs in
the 90s Monday and Tuesday. Cooling begins Wednesday, and
Thursday may be the coolest day of the extended with highs back to
the 80s. Warming returns Friday/Saturday.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty northwest winds will impact the region today, in the wake of
a cold frontal passage Friday night. Expect gusts of 25-35 kts,
greatest over the eastern lower elevations. VFR conditions will
prevail over the next 24 hours, though a few showers or
thunderstorms are possible over the mountains late this afternoon
and evening. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 058/089 060/096 064/095 063/092 061/086 059/087
    1/N 10/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 083 047/088 051/094 053/094 054/090 052/086 051/088
    0/N 10/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/W
HDN 087 055/091 058/097 060/096 061/093 058/088 056/087
    1/N 10/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
MLS 086 059/091 062/097 066/096 067/092 063/087 061/088
    0/N 00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/092 062/097 063/096 063/093 062/088 059/088
    0/N 11/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
BHK 084 055/088 058/093 061/092 063/087 059/084 057/084
    0/N 00/U    02/T    23/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 087 052/090 054/097 057/096 057/094 058/087 054/088
    1/U 10/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    24/T    42/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 129-131>133.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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