Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240302

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
902 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Monsoon moisture was working its way toward the area, and this
combined with some weak energy undercutting the northern Rockies
ridge, developed a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. Convection has struggled to move off the
mountains and even onto the foothills, despite the HRRR`s constant
efforts to produce this result. Most of the cloud tops were
warming, with the exception of an area near West Yellowstone. Have
trimmed back PoPs over the west and confined activity to mainly
over the higher terrain. TWH


.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Ridging begins to push eastward this evening as a low pressure
system moves into central Canada. Associated weak cold front will
slide into the area tomorrow night. Ahead of the cold front,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the mountains during
the afternoon and transition eastward onto the Plains during the
late afternoon and early evening. Weak shear, CAPE around 500
j/kg, and PWAT close to an inch expected tomorrow afternoon, which
suggests wet downburst/general thunderstorm activity across the
area. Southeast winds over the Plains ahead of the front will gust
20-30 mph during the afternoon hours. Weak front moves through
overnight and shower/thunderstorm chances transition onto the
eastern Plains. Better instability over the east on Friday, but
shear remains weak and the front might be too far east for
significant thunderstorm coverage. Behind the front isolated
thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Generally dry and warm forecast through the extended period.
Ridging builds in by the weekend with temperatures at or above
normal through the period under westerly/northwesterly flow aloft.
Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible Saturday
afternoon/evening over eastern zones with weak shortwave moving
across the northern portion of the state. By beginning of the
week, models indicate dry front moves in from the north which
could bring some increased winds to the area. Walsh



In general, VFR will prevail across the area into Thursday.
Isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain will gradually
diminish overnight. Areas of smoke may reduce slant range
visibility at times. STP



    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
BIL 063/086 060/084 058/088 057/088 058/089 059/086 058/086
    02/T    41/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 057/082 051/083 050/087 048/089 049/089 049/086 049/086
    14/T    43/T    31/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    01/B
HDN 061/093 058/087 057/090 055/090 056/091 057/089 056/089
    03/T    31/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 063/094 064/087 059/089 057/089 058/091 059/088 057/087
    03/T    52/T    12/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 061/091 061/087 057/089 055/088 056/089 057/088 055/087
    04/T    52/T    21/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 059/088 060/083 055/084 054/086 054/087 055/085 054/083
    01/N    34/T    22/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 058/087 055/084 052/087 052/087 052/087 052/085 051/085
    13/T    33/T    31/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U




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