Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 062221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

STRONG MIXING TODAY HAS CAUSED A BREEZY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE DAKOTAS INDICATE A
SHIFTING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN THE FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME QC FORCING AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
WITH THE WAVE THAT SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE EAST AND THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESIDE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKS
INTO CENTRAL ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL BE WANING AT THAT TIME.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP SATURDAY...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT. A LEE
TROUGH FORMS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO HAVE ONLY
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. MODELS THEN SHOW A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY SHOWER CHANCE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN STRONG AS
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE...SO THIS WILL CAUSE SOME WIND SHEAR DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/056 030/056 035/062 035/062 036/062 036/059 037/059
    01/E    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W
LVM 033/055 027/055 035/059 037/059 039/063 036/058 034/058
    00/N    10/U    00/U    00/N    01/B    12/W    22/W
HDN 027/057 027/057 031/063 032/064 033/063 032/062 034/062
    01/E    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W
MLS 027/051 027/053 032/061 033/061 032/060 034/057 032/057
    04/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    21/B
4BQ 024/052 024/052 028/061 030/062 030/063 031/059 032/059
    02/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 024/049 022/051 029/059 031/059 029/057 029/055 030/053
    14/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 026/051 025/051 027/060 029/061 031/063 031/059 033/059
    00/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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