Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280224

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
824 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Strong upper level ridge will bring quiet weather to our region
tonight, with the only real feature of interest being a Canadian
cold front which has just passed through Great Falls and will
reach our cwa overnight. Could see some areas of upslope stratocu
along our western foothills as winds shift to the east tomorrow
morning. Otherwise this will be a dry frontal passage as we remain
dominated by the ridge aloft. Expect another reasonably mild night
tonight, then cooler temps Wednesday, but with highs still above
normal for late September. JKL


.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

High pressure ridging will be over the forecast area through
Thursday. The jet stream will continue to be positioned well north
of the area across southern Canada. As a result, clear skies will
prevail tonight with sunny to mostly sunny skies expected
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area
late tonight. This will allow winds to switch to the northwest to
north late then easterly for Wednesday. The front looks to be dry
so we are not expecting any shower activity to be associated with

An upper level low and trough approach the Pacific northwest
coast Thursday resulting in a southwest flow aloft across Montana.
A few weak impulses will move northeast within the flow out of the
Great Basin area. This will bring a slight chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms for areas mainly along and west of a
Sheridan-Billings-Roundup line Thursday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal with readings in
the 70s Wednesday with 70s to possibly 80 degrees for some
locations Thursday. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

The long term period will begin dry and with above normal
temperatures as mid level southwesterly flow presides over the
region. Expect temperatures in the upper 70s. Some moisture will
be working northeast in this flow on Friday afternoon which will
generate a small chance for showers over the higher terrain. An
upper level trough will then begin working into the region by
Saturday which will begin a cool down persisting through the
beginning of next week. Looks like the best coverage for showers
will be in zones west of Billings and later in the evening on

As the trough continues to work its way into the forecast area
on Sunday, shower chances will overspread the area from west to
east as a surface low passes northeast through the region.
Temperatures should cool down into the mid 60s by Sunday
afternoon. Moving on to the beginning of next week the models
handle the evolution of this trough quite differently. The GFS,
while keeping conditions cool, keeps the flow relatively west to
east under a general trough with cool and cloudy conditions. The
EC keeps things more active and wetter through the beginning of
next week. With this in mind, kept the chance for rain in the
forecast through the beginning of next week. Temperatures will
continue to cool with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s by
Monday and Tuesday. Dobbs



Westerly winds will switch northeasterly and perhaps even gust to
15 kts as a cold frontal passage moves through BIL and LVM between
09-12Z. Winds will switch increase northwesterly before becoming
northeasterly at MLS after sunrise. VFR conditions expected
through the period. Walsh



    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 053/075 053/079 055/079 053/076 052/066 046/059 044/055
    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W
LVM 045/075 046/079 050/078 048/074 046/060 040/053 039/051
    00/U    01/B    21/B    23/T    33/T    33/W    33/W
HDN 050/079 049/080 052/080 051/078 051/068 046/060 045/056
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W
MLS 051/078 050/081 054/080 054/078 054/069 047/063 045/057
    00/U    00/U    21/B    11/U    23/T    33/W    33/W
4BQ 051/080 053/082 054/080 052/078 053/070 047/064 044/058
    00/U    00/U    21/B    11/U    23/T    33/W    33/W
BHK 046/076 046/077 052/076 049/075 051/068 047/063 044/057
    00/U    00/U    31/B    11/U    13/T    33/W    32/W
SHR 044/080 044/081 048/078 049/077 050/067 045/059 041/054
    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    23/T    33/W    33/W




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