Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 241705
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1005 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the winter wx advisory for the Beartooth and Red
Lodge foothills, as snow has tapered to flurries in these areas.
Will let remaining highlights ride til 21z. JKL

Previous discussion issued 858AM:
Slow-moving upper low over WY continues to bring some mostly
light snow to our south this morning. Amounts thus far range from
2 or 3 inches near Red Lodge, Sheridan and Story...to less than an
inch as you move north off the foothills. Tougher to say in far
southeast MT where there is no radar coverage but web cams near
Alzada and Biddle snow a little accumulation thus far, and snow
will continue in these areas into the afternoon. Will make no
changes to the highlights in place just yet, but snow along the
Beartooth Foothills is decreasing. Roads are certainly slick out
there with the MT DOT reporting a few accidents on I-90 early this
morning. Otherwise, a chilly day with decreasing snow and highs
in the lower-mid 20s today. Early morning temps are near forecast
highs, and this is okay as cold advection should push temps down a
little more as we move toward midday. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Satellite imagery shows a broad low over eastern Idaho extending
into central Wyoming. Upslope snow currently ongoing over the
Yellowstone River Valley and foothills. Snow bands are continuing
to push northward out of northern Wyoming and into the
southeastern Plains this evening.

With most of ascent to the south expecting primarily an upslope-
driven snowfall through the morning hours. Greatest amounts will
be over our southern upslope areas. Generally expecting 1 to 4
inches of storm total snowfall, perhaps a bit more over the north
slopes of the Beartooths and Bighorns. Further north, amounts
will be less than an inch as forcing will be weak and moisture
itself fairly shallow. Billings looks to receive around an inch
and snow should taper off by late morning.

As this low pushes into the Dakotas on Tuesday night widespread
snowfall comes to an end. Expecting quiet weather through the
remainder of the short term period. Only slight chance of snow,
mainly over the mountains and eastern Plains through Thursday
morning.

Temps will remain below normal the next couple days, with highs
mostly in the upper teens and 20s with lows in the single digits
to mid teens. Have adjusted lows up a few degrees on Thursday
morning for the foothills from Livingston to Nye, as winds look
to be on the increase as we head into the end of the week. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

We are still anticipating a warming trend in the extended period
with plenty of wind. Confidence is quite good as models are in
good agreement. Strong northerly flow aloft will prevail as a
strong upper ridge becomes anchored from the California coast to
western Montana. There is a weak disturbance in the flow aloft
which may bring a slight chance of precipitation to the eastern
border zones Saturday night, but does not look to carry much risk
of impacts. Early next week models hint at a strong system moving
out of Canada into the high plains, but the track of this is still
questionable so PoP`s were kept relatively low for now with just
some modest cooling.

For this package, the most notable change was to warm up highs
for the weekend as both the GFS and EC are showing 850 MB temps in
the 5-10 C range. Would expect this to correspond to some
locations reaching the 40s this weekend. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light snow with IFR to LIFR conditions will continue to
affect portions of the forecast area south of a KLVM-KBIL-Broadus
line through this morning. The snow will move out of the area by
early this afternoon with improving conditions by 19z. The
mountains will be obscured throughout the day. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024 010/026 013/028 018/034 019/039 024/042 024/036
    3/E 11/E    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 025 008/027 014/027 012/032 015/037 022/041 024/038
    2/S 11/E    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N
HDN 023 002/024 011/026 012/031 013/035 016/037 015/034
    5/S 21/E    10/B    00/N    00/B    00/N    01/B
MLS 022 006/020 007/023 012/029 015/032 017/035 019/031
    2/S 22/S    10/B    00/B    01/B    10/B    02/J
4BQ 022 006/023 007/024 013/031 017/033 017/037 017/034
    7/S 22/S    20/B    00/N    00/B    10/B    02/J
BHK 021 007/019 006/020 010/029 014/031 016/035 018/031
    3/S 22/S    20/B    00/N    01/B    20/B    02/J
SHR 022 002/023 007/025 011/033 012/036 018/041 018/035
    9/S 21/B    10/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 38.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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