Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270200
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
800 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge over the region, with a weak
shortwave that is helping to produce a few showers and weak
thunderstorms across our western cwa this evening. These storms
are high-based and will remain non-severe, but some erratic
surface winds are possible in their vicinity. Stronger shortwave
in OR is producing a good amount of convection in WA/OR/ID. We
will continue to see isolated activity mainly in our west through
the night, but greater chance of showers/tstms will arrive late
tonight and tomorrow as ascent from the stronger wave arrives from
the west. Surface front is currently moving into ID and will
reach our cwa late tonight and move eastward across the area
tomorrow morning. Best pcpn chances will lag this frontal passage.
It will also be a rather warm night tonight. Forecast is in good
shape, but did tweak pops/sky/winds per current obs/trends. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

The main ridge axis has pushed as far east as Billings. As this
continues to push east through the evening, some thunderstorms
will move into the west. Activity is already starting to develop
off the terrain around Livingston. Behind this, the water vapor
is showing a weak wave moving through eastern Oregon. This will
track into western Montana this evening. While most of this
activity will stay west of the area, high res guidance shows some
of this activity creeping into the western zones. There is some
instability and shear, enough to support an isolated strong storm.
However the window for this will be fairly small.

Overnight through mid-day tomorrow a cold front will moves across
the area. This will bring breezy west to northwest winds. By early
afternoon there will be enough instability to get a few storms
going. Some of them could be strong to severe, but the CAMs are
not showing much in the line of stronger updrafts across Montana.
The majority of the activity will be south in Wyoming. The low
levels will remain dry so the main hazard is strong winds.
Wednesday will see the flow aloft remain zonal. With some Pacific
moisture some scattered shower are possible across much of the
area. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

The extended forecast period begins on Thursday with seasonably
cool conditions in place under the influence of cool
northwesterly flow and an upper level low. Relatively unstable
conditions will allow the development of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms with daytime heating Thursday afternoon.
Northwest winds will also be a bit gusty around 20 to 25 mph but
max temperatures in the low to mid 70s and higher afternoon
relative humidities should keep fire concerns lower.

Friday will see similar conditions in place across the region as
the upper level low over the Dakotas slowly pushes east. Breezy
northwest winds in the afternoon will continue along with warmer
conditions as drier air filters into the region. Any isolated showers
will be confined to and near the higher terrain and in extreme
southern Montana/northern Wyoming.

The warming trend will continue into and through the weekend as
mid- level heights slowly build. A chance of scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms is possible on Saturday or Sunday as a
weak shortwave passes through the region. Temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 80s. Drier conditions look to move
in at the start of next week with temperatures possibly returning
into the 90s. Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

Skies will be partly cloudy for the remainder of this evening and
through the overnight hours. There is a chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm west and north of KBIL which may result in
brief gusty winds and an MVFR condition. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. Some mountain obscurations will be possible. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/082 055/079 054/075 052/078 053/082 056/085 059/089
    25/T    42/T    33/T    11/B    11/U    21/U    10/U
LVM 057/077 046/075 045/073 043/076 046/079 049/082 049/086
    36/T    33/T    33/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
HDN 060/086 054/082 054/077 051/079 052/084 055/088 058/092
    25/T    42/T    42/T    11/B    11/U    11/B    11/U
MLS 064/088 056/083 056/079 051/078 051/083 056/087 059/091
    13/T    42/W    33/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    10/U
4BQ 061/088 055/081 053/077 051/077 050/082 055/086 058/090
    12/T    43/T    33/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    10/U
BHK 057/089 052/081 053/075 048/073 047/078 051/083 056/087
    01/N    31/U    24/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
SHR 058/082 052/076 050/073 047/074 048/080 051/083 053/087
    14/T    54/T    43/T    12/T    12/T    12/T    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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