Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 141752 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE FOG OVERNIGHT...AND THAT IS
TRICKY AS DENSE FOG FORMED LATE THIS MORNING AT KALI DUE TO A
WEAK NE WIND BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING (MORE S/SSW
ALBEIT LIGHT). MODEL/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE CONTRADICTORY...WITH NAM
SHOWING NICE FOG PROFILE ONLY AT KLRD...WITH GFS SUGGESTING FOG AT
KALI AND KCRP LATE...POSSIBLY AT KLRD BUT NOT DENSE. LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST PORTION OVER KVCT 12Z MONDAY
WHICH DID NOT SEE DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING (DID SEE IT FOR A SHORT
TIME THEN GOT BETTER). IN SHORT...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST 1SM BR /
TEMPO 1/2SM FG AT KVCT...WITH 1/4SM FG AT KALI AND 1/2SM FG AT
KCRP AND KLRD. LIGHT FOG WILL BEGIN AFTER 15/06Z... THEN ACHIEVE
AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS AFTER 15/10Z.

BEFORE THE FOG...VFR WITH SOME CIGS AOA 3500 FEET EASTERN
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS AOA 18KT SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS AOA 25KT THROUGH 16/00Z. WIND GUSTS TAPER OFF BUT WINDS
ABOVE 11KT TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN JET MOVES EAST. AFTER SUNRISE
AND FOG LIFTS AFTER 15Z...SHOULD SEE VFR EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE MVFR
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...PUT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
AREAS AND GULF WATERS (DECIDED LAST MINUTE TO UPDATE COASTAL TOO
FOR IT). 4 KM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH (I.E. SPRINKLES)
BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE AND RATHER THAN HANDLE IT JUST WITH SHORT-
TERM FORECASTS HAVE DECIDED TO PUT IN...AS UPDATE WAS NEEDED
ANYWAY. DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER A BIT (MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH)
BASED ON SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS A BIT
NEAR THE COAST...AS WELL AS MOISTURE. QUICK RE-CHECK OF FIRE
HAZARDS SHOW ELEVATED CONDITIONS REMAIN...MAYBE A BIT LONGER AND
FARTHER NORTH BUT OVERALL ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THAT IS ABOUT
ALL OF THE FIRST PERIOD CHANGES. NOT MUCH IF ANY CHANGE TO THE
LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME. PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR
VCT AND ALI SITES. ANY VIS REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IFR OR
ABOVE...AND BE DONE BY 14-15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WINDS DECREASE. SOME
INCONSISTENCIES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS
BECOME LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SATURDAY HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE AN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A LLJ ALSO HELPING TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO THESE
ELEVATED WINDS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH IT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...BUT WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY BE NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THE COOLER TEMPS /UPPER 70S/ WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...AND NEAR THE
WATER. WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR FOG TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...BUT WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL DECISION.

MONDAY LOOKS EQUALLY AS WARM...MAYBE A BIT WARMER...WITH 850 TEMPS
FORECAST AT 15 OR HIGHER FOR NEARLY HALF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE DANGER ON
MONDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD
BE AROUND THE COAST BY AROUND 00Z.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

VERY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID-WEEK. 500MB HEIGHTS COULD BE JUST
A TOUCH SHY OF 590DM PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
DATASETS. PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE WE`VE NEVER HAD
590DM IN FEBRUARY SO MAYBE IT`S SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TOO GIVEN
THE LACK OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE LONGTERM. DECENT SHOT
AT SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
NEXT...STRONGER...COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES...30 TO 40 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-WEEK WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...ACROSS THE WEST...IN PLACE WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS
MULTIPLE WAVES CARVE INTO ITS TOP PRESENTING MORE OF ZONAL FLOW
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONGER IMPULSE DROPS DOWN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WHEN COMBINING WITH THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
TRENDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT BEING THAT WE ARE OFFICIALLY IN
D0 DROUGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ANY LITTLE BIT HELPS....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  82  55  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          80  60  80  49  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  56  86  57  85  /   0   0  10   0   0
ALICE             85  59  84  53  83  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          79  61  77  56  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  54  83  52  86  /   0   0  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  54  81  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       78  61  75  59  75  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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