Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 292049
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS PER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MEANDERS THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
DRG THE 18Z SAT-00Z SUN PERIOD BEFORE MOVG SLOWLY SWD ACRS THE CWA
00Z-12Z SUN. NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGEST PWAT VALUES
1.75-2.00 INCHES...ALONG WITH A MORE SATURATED COLUMN....NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FURTHER...THE NAM PROGS HIGH CAPE VALUES/LOW CIN
BY SAT AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THE FOREGOING SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ALONG
THE FRONT. DESPITE LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...ANTIICPATE THAT SCT
CONVECTION WL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE FRONT. GIVEN
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BNDRY AND LOW FFG VALUES...AREAS OF/WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THUS...ISSUED A FFA FOR THE 18Z SAT-
12Z SUN PERIOD IN COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY TROUGH FRIDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GFS/NAM DEVELOPING A CUT OFF LOW RETROGRADING BY TUESDAY FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXITING TROUGH. THE EURO SWINGS THE TROUGH WELL
THE TO THE EAST BEFORE CUTTING OFF A LOW. IN EITHER
SOLUTIONS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
UNDER AN UNCAPPED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY AND ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S OUT WEST. GENERAL LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DRG THE 10-14Z SAT PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SECTIONS DRG THE 16-18Z SAT
PERIOD OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY LGT WIND
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE REGION. OWING TO CONVECTIVE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT CIN VALUES 300-400J/KG OVER
THE CWA. YET...NAM/RAP DETERMINISTIC PROG CIN VALUES TO DISSIPATE
DRG THE AFTN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION
FOR THIS AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FROM THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION/
SUFFICIENT MSTR EAST. OTHERWISE...MADE TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
COVER/WIND CHANGES MAINLY TO THE CURRENT PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF
THE COAST...HOWEVER A SECONDARY AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH MID MORNING. AM EXPECTING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CONDITIONS DVLP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VCT AND ALI TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND PUBLIC PACKAGE TO EXTEND SVR BOX
TIL 5 AM. PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS WILL SHORT AND OUT THE DOOR SO OFFICE CAN WORK
ON ON-GOING CONVECTION. SMALLER SCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY NSSL 4
KM SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE COAST AROUND 12Z...SO HAVE
KICKED POPS UP FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. MAY NOT SEE A
LOT OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS USUAL WHEN CONVECTION THIS
ORGANIZED BLOWS THROUGH WE ARE STABLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THUS...AM GOING TO GO VERY LITTLE ON RAIN THE AFTERNOON (20 TO 30
AT MOST) AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE TIME TO RELOAD. AFTER THAT...
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A DRYING
TREND BUT WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THINK NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SINCE A CUT
OFF LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LATER SHIFTS CAN
ADJUST. COOLER ON SUNDAY THEN A BIT OF A WARMING TREND EARLY IN
THE WEEK. NO MODIFICATIONS TO SUPERBLEND DAYS 4-8 CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST THOSE VALUES A DEGREE OR
TWO DOWN THE ROAD.

MARINE...WITH PASSING OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WINDS FOR A TIME WILL
BE NORTHWEST...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHOULD SEE STABLE
AIRMASS. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  72  85  71  /  10  30  50  50  20
VICTORIA          72  85  69  84  68  /  10  50  60  50  20
LAREDO            75  90  71  88  71  /  20  30  40  40  10
ALICE             73  88  71  86  69  /  10  30  50  50  20
ROCKPORT          77  83  72  85  73  /  10  30  50  50  20
COTULLA           73  88  70  85  69  /  20  50  50  40  10
KINGSVILLE        74  87  71  85  70  /  10  30  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  83  73  84  74  /  10  30  40  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
     GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
     WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM


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