Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 280921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LATE JULY HEAT CONTINUES TO
BE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER CWA TODAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 110 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
110 ACROSS THE VICTORIA AND LAREDO METRO AREAS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SAID LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DIURNAL MIXING MAY LEAD HEAT INDICES TO BE A
LITTLE MORE MARGINAL THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS MAY COUNTERACT THE PERCEPTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS
TODAY. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA/ AS SLIGHTLY DRIER DEEP
LAYER PROFILE AND EXTENSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AIDS IN
BOOSTING TEMPS TO GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PRETTY NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS HANDLING
POPS THIS WEEKEND. WILL WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THEN MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE
NORTH AND THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CWFA TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IF NOT
OVERNIGHT) SO THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...PWATS ARE NEARLY 2.4
INCHES AND DO EXPECT SOME WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW EITHER FROM THE WEAK
FRONT OR BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION. BOUNDARY COULD ALSO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD JET COMING DOWN INTO
AREA (WHICH COULD ALSO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH OUR AREA
MAY NOT BE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF JET INITIALLY). STILL...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS
NOW (TIME TO ADJUST FORECAST). BY MONDAY...DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY
TRY TO FILTER IN AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH POPS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES COMING IN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND...DEPENDING ON WHETHER AREA
SEES DYING MCS OVER THE WEEKEND...COULD HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS
AGAIN WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN COULD RESULT IN A RATHER
COOL DAY ON SUNDAY (GFS IS HINTING AT THIS). OVERALL HOWEVER...DID
NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH DID
INCREASE TEMPS JUST A BIT (MAINLY OUT WEST) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS AGAIN TIL THE WEEKEND AND THEN GOING A BIT
MORE TOWARD CLIMO GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST (WHICH WAS
JUST ABOUT FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /   0  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /   0  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




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