Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242330 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
530 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through
the period. North winds have diminished slightly but high pressure
will build into the region tonight and north-northeast winds will
be gusty along the coast. Northeast winds Saturday morning will
veer to easterly by the afternoon as the high pressure ridge moves
to the east.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Cold front positioned over the Texas Hill Country this afternoon
will move into the area by mid evening (will make progress by early
evening), with increasing north to northeast winds as the pressure
rises and pressure gradient increases. Thus, a cooler night tonight
and especially cooler on Saturday. Most guidance for highs is cooler
than previous forecast, so went with it. Winds become east by early
Saturday evening and with moderate winds in the gulf expected,
temperatures near the coast will fall in the evening and remain
steady or even rise overnight. Also, after a dry airmass the last
couple of days, moisture will return (as well as some clouds)
Saturday night with mostly cloudy conditions developing out west.
Could not rule out a sprinkle or patchy drizzle near the Rio Grande
toward Sunday morning, but held off on any mention of rain for now
as low level moisture appears to be very thin at this time to
warrant a mention.

FIRE WEATHER...

Will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at 5 PM. Wind gusts have
been elevated and have resulted in expanding the RFW farther east
but we should start to see the winds diminish by late afternoon (at
least that is what the guidance has been showing but that has been
poor as of late). Still, with daytime heating curtailing we should
start to see a weak inversion begin. Cold front will bring wind
gusts up once again but by then the humidity should be higher so no
need to extend fire concerns later tonight. That is all.

MARINE (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Will go with a SCA for the gulf waters starting around 02Z and
continuing through tonight. After discussions with BRO and HGX, will
not include the bays at this time (winds do not show it either
although it could be a brief SCA wind for an hour or two). For now
will only go with SCA until 12Z and let the evening or MID shift
decide on whether to extend the advisory for portions of the gulf
waters as wind guidance the last 24 hours has been quite short of
sensational. Winds still moderate over the gulfmex Saturday as they
become east late Saturday and southeast Saturday night.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Sunday a weak coastal low will move up the coast as surface high
pressure traverses further east of the region. Onshore flow will
bring higher moisture northward from the Gulf with a slight chance
for showers early next week.  By Wednesday an upper level trough
will swing across the Great Plains into the Central Plains, with an
associated cold front pushing down into South Texas by Wednesday
afternoon.  Higher moisture pooling along the coastline and coastal
waters will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms as this
front moves through.  Cooler air will sink into the region late in
the period, with a slight chance for overruning showers behind the
front.

With regard to temperatures, a swift warming trend will develop
through the mid week, returning to well above normal temperatures.
In wake of the fropa Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will begin to
fall, with CAA continuing into the late week, and highs Friday
struggling to reach out of the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    51  72  57  78  65  /   0   0   0  20  20
Victoria          45  69  49  75  64  /   0   0   0  20  20
Laredo            50  76  56  84  62  /   0   0  10  20  10
Alice             47  74  54  81  64  /   0   0  10  20  10
Rockport          53  68  59  76  67  /   0   0   0  20  20
Cotulla           46  72  50  79  60  /   0   0   0  20  10
Kingsville        48  75  56  80  65  /   0   0  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       58  69  61  76  67  /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION


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