Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 212104
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
404 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Guidance progs limited precip chances tonight and Tuesday across
the region as moisture depth lessens. Could see an isolated shower
across the offshore Gulf waters tonight...but for the most part
the vast majority of the region is prog to remain dry overnight
while on the west side of a TUTT low. Lower moisture depth should
result in near normal min temps for mid August along with mainly
clear skies overnight. Thin Cu field expected for Tuesday with
only a brief and isolated shower possible across primarily the N
Coastal Bend and Victoria area. Hot temps will prevail again Tues
afternoon...but lower dewpoints should make it feel less
oppressive outside.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

The TUTT low weakens over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Adequate moisture will be available along the coast for isolated
showers or thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze boundary. The
rest of the forecast depends upon the tropical wave approaching the
Yucatan peninsula, the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey. Models are
in agreement that Harvey should reorganize as it moves into the
southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. Consensus of all of the
tropical models and ensembles show a more northwest track across the
Gulf of Mexico to just south of Brownsville early Friday morning.
Too early to tell how strong this potential tropical system will
become, but rain chances will be going up for South Texas for the
end of the week with likely PoPs Friday through Saturday. Looking at
some of the long range models, concern for this system will likely
be the potential for very heavy rainfall. Especially if this system
slows down as much as some of the models indicate. Will keep rain
chances conservated for Sunday into Monday at 40-50 percent but
could be higher than that depending upon movement of this system.
For marine interests, winds and seas will be increasing Thursday
night into Friday. Will show SCA conditions for the coastal waters
Thursday night through Friday night. Will show seas increasing to
around 8 feet over the offshore waters Friday but Wave Watch models
show the potential for seas to be quite a bit higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  95  74  96  77  /  10  10  10  20  20
Victoria          75  96  75  97  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
Laredo            77 101  77 102  78  /   0  10   0  10  10
Alice             75  99  72 100  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          80  93  79  93  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           76 101  75 101  76  /   0  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        75  97  74  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       80  92  79  92  82  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM


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