Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 280007
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
707 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.
MVFR cloud deck will build back into the region overnight as low
level moisture increases with southeast flow across South Texas.
Southeast winds will relax this evening. Patchy fog will develop
and reduce vsbys to MVFR levels as well across ALI and VCT at
times during the very early morning Friday. MVFR cloud deck will
be slow to rise, but eventually lift and clear by the late
morning/early afternoon at all terminals. Breezy winds will
develop by the mid to late morning, becoming more south
southeasterly during the day Friday.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...
Surface high sliding off to the east has allowed for onshore flow
to redevelop. Moisture will increase tonight through Friday with
onshore flow strengthening. This is in response to an area of low
pressure developing and deepening across the southern high plains.
Should begin to see an increase in cloud coverage tonight
continuing into Friday morning. Warm to hot conditions is expected
once again for Friday, with temperatures nearing the triple
digits across the Brush Country and in the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. This combined
with a gradual increase in moisture should lead to Heat Index
values to jump into the upper 90s, even up to 104 across the
southern Coastal Bend. Breezy to windy conditions are expected
Friday, especially along the coast. Farther west, winds should be
weak to occasionally breezy which is good seeing as afternoon
relative humidity values are expected to drop to below 30 percent
generally west of Highway 281, limiting fire danger weather. Over
the waters, SCA is likely to redevelop again Friday afternoon and
continue through Friday night.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Deterministic GFS/ECMWF agree that a strong upper level
disturbance will move move across Texas/SRN Plains Saturday
night/Sunday. In response, strong onshore flow expected over the
MSA Saturday. The GFS predicts a dryline to move across at least
the ERN CWA Saturday afternoon and contribute to hot maximum
temperatures over the CNTRL/WRN CWA. GFS deterministic predict
around 5000 J/KG CAPE values and near normal PWAT values over the
NERN CWA Saturday afternoon. Strong isolated convection may occur
over the NERN CWA Saturday afternoon (SPC depicts a slight risk
area just north of the NERN CWA for Saturday.) Saturday
night/early Sunday morning...the combination of strong upper
forcing associated with the forgoing disturbance, instability, and
the cold front, anticipate scattered/numerous convection over
especially the ERN CWA. Some storms may become strong.
Sunday...much drier conditions are expected as the upper
disturbance moves east/significant subsidence develops over the
CWA/MSA. Strong offshore flow/SCA conditions expected over the MSA
after FROPA. Elevated or Critical fire weather conditions may
occur Sunday afternoon. Sunday night- Tuesday night...Much cooler
temperatures are expected early Monday morning with lows in the
50s. Gradual warming trend afterward. Offshore flow will subside
and flow will veer to onshore then increase to weak/moderate
levels by late Monday. Increasing moisture may contribute to at
least isolated shower activity Wednesday/ Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 73 93 78 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 30
Victoria 70 91 76 88 63 / 10 10 10 20 60
Laredo 72 100 75 101 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
Alice 70 99 76 97 65 / 10 10 10 10 20
Rockport 75 87 79 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 40
Cotulla 69 98 74 97 60 / 10 10 10 10 30
Kingsville 72 97 77 95 66 / 10 10 10 10 20
Navy Corpus 75 88 79 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 30