Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220030 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
630 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Sent an update to increase cloud cover for this
evening by a few categories and to indicate a southeast wind
across the coastal counties /rather than west/. Record heat inland
this afternoon has allowed seabreeze to activate and spread
inland /even as far as Victoria/. Result has been gusty ESE winds
across the eastern third of the CWA this evening. May send another
update later this evening for FROPA timing and temps.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

AVIATION...VFR thru the taf period with only some passing
mid/high level clouds at times. Main wx impacts will be wind
speeds. Seabreeze approaching KCRP as of writing and may allow for
a switch to a SErly direction this evening. Otherwise...Wrly sfc
winds to diminish in intensity early this evening. However...a
cold front will spread from NW to SE across the region tonight
resulting in renewed increase in wind speeds from the NW. Very
strong llvl flow above the sfc will result in requirement of llws
for KCRP/KALI where core of 925mb jet /55 to 60kts/ is prog to
move overhead tonight. For KLRD/KVCT...strongest 925mb winds are
prog to just miss the aerodromes and I have omitted llws for those
areas for now. Strong sfc winds prog to dvlp late tonight and
peak from mid mrng thru mid aftn across entire region. Likely the
strongest winds in quite awhile for the region. Wind fields weaken
by late in the day with VFR continuing.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

.Critical to EXTREMELY critical fire weather conditions expected
on Sunday...

The main story for our sensible weather is the strong cold front
slicing through the region late tonight into Sunday morning and the
very strong west-northwest expected behind the passage. Expecting
sustained winds between 30-40 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph
starting by late Sunday morning. Guidance and forecast soundings
continue to indicate the event peaks right around 12-2 PM CST before
steadily decreasing through the early evening hours. Would not be
surprised to see some isolated gusts of closer to 55 mph near the
coast early afternoon. All this lends itself to the need for a Red
Flag Warning with critical to extremely critical conditions, both
winds and relative humidity values, developing by late morning
through the afternoon hours. Wind Advisory is now in effect for all
of South Texas starting Sunday morning through the remainder of the
daylight hours. Not entirely certain on blowing dust being an
issue but it is possible given how dry the ground has been
recently. There could be pockets of blowing dust affecting
visibilities across the Southern Coastal Bend.

As noted, winds look to quickly decrease later Sunday afternoon as
the quick moving low pressure to our north pulls farther eastward
and the northwest-southwest oriented pressure gradient relaxes.
With lighter winds and a dry airmass in place we should be able cool
into the mid to upper-40s area wide.

LONG TERM...

A couple more cold fronts in the long term period, but as far as
impact weather, period is rather quiet. Conditions will be much
quieter Monday than what we will see Sunday with high pressure
building over the area. A light northerly wind will shift to the
south by the end of the day. Expect an increasing southerly flow on
Tuesday as next cold front moves approaches. This will also lead to
very warm temperatures with daytime highs back up around 90 degrees
inland. Will have a chance to get surface based moisture levels up
with dpts into the 60s, but deep layer moisture will remain limited
and should limit any rainfall chances to marine areas. While still a
Pacific airmass, temperatures look to fall a bit farther behind the
mid-week front than what we will see behind tonight`s front. Highs
likely in the 60s for most areas Thursday and Friday.

Another front is possible by this weekend, but with this one we may
get enough moisture back into the area to warrant slight chance pops
for Friday night and Saturday

MARINE...

Very strong west-northwest will commence Sunday morning behind the
departing strong cold front. Expecting frequent gale force gusts
along the area bays and waters with sustained gale force winds
over the near and offshore waters. There may be a brief period
late Sunday morning over the offshore waters where wind gusts hit
low-end storm force (48-49 knots). Though certainty is currently
low in this occurrence we wanted to keep the mention in place.
Seas over the offshore waters build close to 15 feet but should
quickly subside as the surface flow is more westerly and therefore
a shorter fetch.

Also of note, with the strong west-northwest flow it is possible
that some low water pockets may develop in the area bays and water
ways.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  75  47  78  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          53  72  45  76  54  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            56  76  46  81  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             54  76  45  79  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          56  74  52  75  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           54  75  43  79  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        54  76  45  79  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       57  74  52  75  60  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM



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