Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 051515 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1015 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DEW
POINTS WHICH WERE TOO LOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. STILL...GIVEN THE
UPDATED VALUES...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 ARE BEING
FORECAST (SPS HAS BEEN SENT OUT). WILL MONITOR AS THIS IS THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A KEENER EYE ON THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS A BIT HIGHER TODAY AND THE RIDGE A BIT
STRONGER...FEEL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS KIND OF FOLLOWS WHAT THE HRRR AND NSSL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SO ADJUSTED AFTERNOON POPS ACCORDINGLY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TOO. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SECOND PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES. NO OTHER
UPDATES FOR OTHER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING AND COULD IMPACT ALI/VCT/LRD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF PORT
ARANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE VCT
TERMINAL AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MENTION PRECIP REMARKS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SSE AND SE
WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE MENTIONED MVFR CIGS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE LESS TODAY AS MODELS PROG PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE WATERS MAY APPROACH
THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AT
LEAST SUPPORT THIS TO SOME EXTENT...AND HAVE KEPT 20 POPS ACROSS
THE EAST WITH SOME 30 POPS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST...TO MID/LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE MORE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES. WILL
LEAVE RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CHANGES IN THE UPPER
PATTERN TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH H5 RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
WEST AS A TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WEAK CUT
OFF LOW DRIFTS WEST ALONG ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT
OVERALL...A RELATIVE INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND IS DRAWN NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOL H85-
H7 TEMPS...DAILY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE GULF...MOVING INLAND WITH
HEATING. THE GFS AND EURO BOTH HINT AT A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH SOUTH INTO TEXAS. DISAGREEMENTS
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY AND ONWARD. THIS SAID...MAINLY KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS...WITH
20-30 POPS INTRODUCED BY FRIDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPS TOWARD THE LATER OF THE WORK
WEEK MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  79  94  77  94  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          94  76  96  75  95  /  30  10  10  10  20
LAREDO           102  79 102  77 102  /  10  10   0   0  10
ALICE             97  76  98  75  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  80  91  79  90  /  30  10  10  10  20
COTULLA          101  77 101  75 102  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        96  78  97  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  90  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.