Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261625
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1125 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The majority of shower and thunderstorm activity remains across
the Gulf waters/northern Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads this
morning, though it is very slowly making a westward progression.
With daytime heating underway anticipate more convection to
develop and move inland across the region this afternoon.
Atmospheric conditions remain favorable for funnel
cloud/waterspout development across the middle Texas coastal
waters late this morning through the early afternoon. With regard
to temperatures, have had to make some adjustments across the
Victoria Crossroads and surrounding areas. Thick cloud cover and
and rainfall within the area has kept temperatures several degrees
cooler than earlier forecast. Was hesitant to drop afternoon highs
too low as temperatures could quickly rebound if breaks develop in
the cloud cover, but still brought afternoon highs down into the
upper 80s for these portions of the region. Further west
temperatures appear well on track, and thick cloud clover/rain has
yet to develop and impede diurnal warming. Otherwise, other
forecast elements appear well on track and no other changes were
needed. Updates are already out.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

Isolated SHRAs this morning especially toward VCT. Expect
SHRAs/TSTMs to expand farther west through the day. Added VCTS for
LRD toward the afternoon. Convection should linger into the
evening diminishing late. Winds may become variable gusting 30-40
KTS near and within heavier storms, but overall, a general E 10-15
KT wind is expected through the period. MVFR CIGs may redevelop
late tonight, mainly from ALI-VCT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Lingering convection from yesterday evening continues to slowly
weaken and drift south across the western Brush Country this
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed across the
waters into the Northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria
Crossroads. This is all in part with the increased moisture (PWATs
forecast to increase to near 2.4 inches) and the midlevel low
draped along the Texas coast. Morning satellite imagery already
showing just over 2 inch PWATs this morning. Will continue to
expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to gradually spread
farther west with daytime heating, with best chances remaining
across the east and into the northern area from Victoria to
Cotulla.

Rain chances should gradually diminish through the evening with
the loss of heating. Come Wednesday, computer models keep abundant
moisture available but mainly through the morning hours, with the
bulk of moisture being lifted farther north with drier conditions
into Wednesday afternoon. Have backed off on POPs on Wednesday
afternoon as H85 temperatures have also warmed as well which
typically hinder much in the way of convection.

Again, strong upper level support and shearing is not sufficient
to maintain severe thunderstorms, however a few strong storms with
gusty winds can not be ruled out.

As for temperatures, due to the expected increased cloud coverage,
rain, and more easterly flow, maintained "cooler" temperatures
today in the lower 90s to upper 80s across the east and along the
coast, while farther west, temperatures should range in the upper
90s to near 100. But warmed things right back up Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Moisture will decrease through the period as deep ridging reasserts
itself across south TX.  Still will be enough moisture for diurnal
convection along the seabreeze as well as late night/morning
activity over the very warm Gulf.  Will maintain previous trend of
capping pops around 20 percent.  Temperatures will be pretty much
the same each day with readings generally 1-2 deg above normal. If
the rains currently forecast for the Victoria Crossroads don`t
materialize that area could be even hotter than currently forecast
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  96  80  93  /  30  20  30  20  20
Victoria          88  76  94  78  92  /  60  30  40  20  30
Laredo           101  78 102  79 102  /  30  30  20  20  10
Alice             98  77  99  78  99  /  30  20  20  20  20
Rockport          89  80  92  81  90  /  50  20  30  20  20
Cotulla           98  77 100  78 102  /  50  30  30  20  10
Kingsville        97  78  97  79  96  /  30  20  20  20  20
Navy Corpus       90  81  92  82  89  /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM



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