Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 290558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1258 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Note Aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...A transition to MVFR ceilings expected early this
morning then a transition to VFR during the afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop generally west of U.S. 77
during the afternoon/evening. Onshore flow will persist during the
TAF period.



DISCUSSION...Am tempted to remove all POP from the forecast for
tonight, but will keep a slight chance out to the west should
something drift in. However, confidence is waning fast as cap
rapidly returning and radar showing activity weakening or well
north/south of area. Thus, lowered POPs (and QPF), and may send a
final update by 11 PM if confidence high enough to remove all
rain chance.

Other than that, there was one more major change. Swells at BOY020
are 5 feet and 8 seconds, with SE winds around 15 knots. This
keeps the rip current risk well above the high level. Winds are
forecast to only come down a bit, but swells will likely fall some.
In short, will extend the rip current risk until 4 AM and let the
mid shift look at swells and periods before they issue morning
package, as the risk may be down to moderate levels by then. It
will all depend on the swells and how fast they diminish.

Other minor changes to first and second periods. However,
temperatures still look reasonable over nearly every location so
see no need to fix those. Products are out.

MARINE...Based on current observations and forecast wind/sea
data, all guidance is suggesting SCA conditions are over and will
not return overnight and Sunday. Thus, will cancel the advisory
early for gulf waters at 10 PM (bays was to expire at 10 PM). No
precipitation expected.


DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...Think the potential for thunder in KLRD is very low,
(even at KLRD) as mid-level theta-e advection is negative
especially eastern areas. There could be a weakening storm at KLRD
after 03Z, but think this will not be the case. As a result, will
remove VCTS at KRLD and go with VCSH but no tempo. Elsewhere, SE
winds weakening this evening and lower dew point depressions
should mean MVFR cigs will likely come back a bit faster tonight
(already occurring at KCRP and nearly at KALI and KVCT). For now,
will not forecast IFR cigs (as GFS-MOS suggests) as there may be
enough mixing to preclude this. Should see VFR conditions return
no later than 18Z with mainly SE winds becoming higher and gustier
in the afternoon (and no VCTS/VCSH).


SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...Main forecast issue
will be whether thunderstorms develop this evening. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis paints MLCapes of 3500 to 4000 across South Texas
with little in the way of capping. However, an approaching s/w
trough may initiate convection over the higher terrain of Mexico
later this afternoon/early evening. Last couple runs of the HRRR
has hinted at this possibility. If this were to occur, then a
strong to severe thunderstorm threat could materialize over Webb
and LaSalle counties. Main threat would be lare hail and damaging
winds. However, confidence in this occurring is not the greatest
at this time, and will have to monitor trends. Showers and storms
should then dissipate later this evening with the loss of daytime
heating and increasing CIN.

Upper level ridge will then become established on Sunday across
the area. Most locations should remain dry tomorrow, but daytime
heating could result in some isolated convection. Pops were held
at 20 percent for tomorrow. Another very warm day is expected
across South Texas with highs approaching 100 degrees out west to
upper 80s around Victoria.

The high risk of currents will continue through this evening due
moderate southeast winds and long period swells.

MARINE...Borderline small craft advisory conditions continue over
the Bays and Gulf Waters this afternoon. The small craft advisory
will remain in effect for the Bays until 10pm this evening and
until 1am for the Gulf Waters.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...The trend in the guidance has
been to decrease rain chances for the Monday through Wednesday
timeframe across the CWA.  This appears to be quite reasonable given
a moderate to strong cap remaining in place for much of the area,
especially the Coastal Bend.  Still think there will be at least
isolated convection possible primarily west of highway 281 where the
buoyancy will be the strongest and the cap will be the weakest.
Several wk shortwaves, mainly convectively-induced from Sierra Madre
convection, will affect this portion of the CWA through Wed.  The
main event will lkly be along and ahead of a late season cold front
which is progged to push through the CWA late Wed night into Thu
morning. PWATS exceeding 2 inches along with ample forcing and
instability will boost rain chances to good chance to lkly for most
of the CWA for Wed night and Thu.  The drying out process may be a
bit quicker than the models currently predict but will still leave
in some pops for Thu night into Friday although not real confident
we will see much, if any, rainfall during that time.  Continued dry
advection is expected through next weekend as northerly flow
deepens due to the passage of the baggy trough axis.  Sfc dewpoints
in the 60s with perhaps a few upper 50 dewpoints will even be


Corpus Christi    77  90  77  88  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
Victoria          73  88  73  86  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
Laredo            76  94  76  95  76  /  20  20  30  20  30
Alice             75  92  75  91  76  /  20  10  10  30  20
Rockport          78  88  79  86  79  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           74  91  74  93  74  /  20  20  30  40  30
Kingsville        77  92  77  90  77  /  20  10  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       79  88  79  86  79  /  10  10  10  20  20


TX...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.




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