Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261701 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z OR SO ALL AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 27/01Z WITH NO GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR AOA
27/06Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS REMAINING IN THE MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




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