Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 022027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
DEPICTS QUITE WELL THE MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
GULF. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE WARM AND DRY
MIDLEVELS HAS LED TO THE CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WITH CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPS
INLAND IN THE LOW-MID 70S...AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 70S.
THIS CHANGES AS MODELS MOVE IN A COASTAL TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY. ONE TO TWO DEGREE COOLER
TEMPS AT H85 AND AN INFLUX OF 2+ INCH PWATS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...FIRST DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...MOVING INLAND WITH HEATING.
MAINTAINED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PERSISTENT FOR
MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HEAVILY RELY
ON THE INWARD PROGRESSION OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
DESPITE THE 2 INCH PWATS...DUE TO TEMPS AT H85 STILL RESIDING
AROUND THE 18C MARK...RESISTANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
EXISTS...KEEPING ONLY 20 POPS FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT VS 30 POPS
FOR SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION AND WILL KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL KEEP A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THINK THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF FOCUS WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. HAVE
KEPT JUST SILENT 10 POPS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BACK TO THE UPPER 90S AND JUST ABOVE 100.
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY RISE TO 105-109 DAILY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. SOME PERIODS OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH. SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MARINE AREAS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM



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