Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP AT VCT TAF SITE
WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS NOT PRESENT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG FOR OTHER SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR VISBY. STRATUS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST SITES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WIND. LRD COULD BREAK THE CIG IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER SITES LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        52  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




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