Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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439
FXUS63 KDDC 231806
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
106 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Initially this morning, a few isolated showers may be found as
far east as the highway 283 corridor around 12z before
dissipation. Beyond that, another day of hot temperatures with
elevated heat indices (especially from Wakeeney-Hays to Medicine
Lodge) is in store before a cool surface boundary contributes to a
slight drop in highs by Sunday. The Heat Advisory has been
extended for one more afternoon in the eastern counties, where
temperatures shave been trending warmest, and may hit true
advisory criteria of 105 degrees without the help of elevated dew
points. By tonight, the week cold frontal boundary is modeled by
the NAM/WRF to move into northern-west central KS, providing a
convergence zone for thunderstorms to develop by early evening,
with locally heavy rain, lightning and strong gusty winds. Showers
and storms could continue though the night as well feeding on
steep mid level lapse rates.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The extended period will probably be not as hot, and even cooling
toward near normal highs for late July/almost early August. With
not as hot air aloft and persistent , generally zonal flow,
convection should be possible most late evenings during the
period. The EC indicates another shortwave and MCS activity across
the central and northern Plains on Tuesday night. By late week the
pattern evolves to a large upper high across the southwest states
into the rockies, with cyclonic flow aloft across the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

South winds will persist through most of the period, but a switch
to the northeast is expected as a cold front passes near the end
of the period. There is a small chance of thunderstorms after 21z
at KGCK and KHYS, otherwise VFR conditions can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  73  98  70 /  10  10  40  30
GCK 102  70  96  69 /  20  20  30  30
EHA 101  71  98  69 /  20  20  40  30
LBL 104  72 100  70 /  20  10  30  40
HYS 104  72  94  69 /  50  20  30  20
P28 105  76 103  74 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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