Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A dry pattern will persist today and tonight as a northwest flow
aloft prevails across the Western High Plains. Regardless of the
flow aloft being fairly strong, much drier air in the low/mid
levels will keep any precip chances out of the area through
Thursday night. A west-northwest downslope flow for much of the
day will become more southwesterly mid to late afternoon as lee
side troughing develops across eastern Colorado. This will
reinforce an ongoing warming trend with highs pushing the lower
to mid 70s(F) this afternoon. Expect lows only down into the
40s(F) tonight with winds remaining southwesterly and fairly
light.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A dry and uneventful period can be expected through the weekend and
into early next week as a northwest flow prevails aloft while a much
drier air mass remains settled across western Kansas. Well above
normal temperatures will continue into Friday regardless of a cold
front projected to push through western Kansas early to mid
afternoon. Widespread 70s(F) for highs can be expected under mostly
sunny skies Friday afternoon. Much cooler air will surge into
Western Kansas Saturday lowering H85 temperatures well below 10C
late in the day. Could see highs struggling to reach up into the
lower to mid 60s(F) Saturday afternoon. Ridging aloft across the
Intermountain West and a quick return low level southerlies will
allow temperatures to bounce back int the early part of next week
with highs pushing the 70s(F) again by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Northwest to westerly winds at less than 10 knots can be expected
early today across western Kansas as a trough of low pressure at
the surface remains nearly stationary across central Kansas. The
surface trough will then begin to retrograde/redevelop further
west late today/early this evening which will result in the
westerly winds to become more southwesterly towards evening. Model
soundings indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  45  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  75  41  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  45  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  75  43  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  45  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  43  75  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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