Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 272353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
653 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016


Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Moisture trapped below an inversion at 900 mb was keeping low
stratus over most of the cwa today. However, strengthening warm
air advection from the west was eroding this cloud deck and the
leading edge of the clearing line (at 2 pm) extended from Belle
Plaine IA to Macomb IL. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s under
the clouds to the mid 50s where sunshine was making an appearance.

A strong warm front extended from western ND to eastern KS with
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s in the Great Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Much warmer on Friday.

Late this afternoon through tonight: The clearing trend should
continue to gradually spread northeast and much of the cwa should
have eroded the low stratus by early to mid evening. Some models
delay this clearing so this will need to be monitored. Overnight,
where skies do clear there is the potential for fog. As the warmer
air arrives over the cooler/moist ground the potential exists for
a more widespread fog (possibly dense) later tonight. At this time
confidence is low regarding this scenario so will continue to
mention patchy fog and pass concerns to later shifts. Minimum
temperatures will range from 40 at Freeport IL to near 50 at
Memphis MO.

Friday: A windy and much warmer day as low pressure tracks to our
north along the United States/Canada border. This will pull warm
air out of the Plains with 850 mb temperatures soaring to +18c.
Afternoon highs should push well into the 70s to near 80. Low
level winds of 40 knots will make for a windy day, especially in
the afternoon with better mixing taking place. Some gusts will be
in the 35 to 40 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Large swings in temperatures will be seen through Monday followed by
cooling trend.

Dry conditions will be seen Friday night and Saturday morning as
another front approaches the area. Temperatures should average above

Saturday afternoon the front moves into the area and should bisect
the area by sunset. Dry conditions will be seen ahead of the front.
Behind the front, forcing increases and starts to act on what
moisture is present. This forcing may be enough to generate some
isolated rain showers in the highway 20 corridor late Saturday

Saturday night the front moves through the remainder of the area.
Additional moisture streaming north will interact with the forcing
behind the front to generate isolated to scattered showers across
the northern two thirds of the area. The forcing will allow the
atmosphere to become marginally unstable.  If this occurs, then some
isolated but elevated thunderstorms north of I-80 are possible
during the evening.

Dry and near seasonable temperatures will be seen across the area on
Sunday as another cool Canadian high pressure moves quickly through
the Midwest.

Sunday night on...

Sunday night into Monday the high will move into the eastern Great
Lakes while a seasonably strong storm system moves into the Plains.
Warm air being pulled north by the storm system will move into the
area creating dry and warm conditions. Winds are expected to be
quite strong on Monday, especially late morning through the

The model consensus has dry conditions Monday night and Tuesday as
another cool front moves through the area.

Starting Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday the models
are indicating that another storm system will develop across the
Plains and slowly move east through the Midwest. There are some
disagreements among the models on the overall timing and track of
the storm system.

As such the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops Tuesday
night and Wednesday followed by chance pops Wednesday night into


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The main forecast challenge for the 00z TAFS is the potential for
fog overnight. There will be a southeast breeze, providing warm
advection over a cool surface layer with recent rainfall. However,
increasing high clouds moving into the region suggest widespread
visibility reductions and low stratus development will be limited.
Due to the lingering uncertainty, have opted to keep visibilities
up at 6sm and suggest some sporadic stratus development with a
scattered low deck. Later refinements will be made as we see how
trends evolve through late evening.




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