Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 022333
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS TWO WEAK TROFS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE PLAINS. A LLJ RAIN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING FROM IOWA/MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS THAT WAS SLOWLY
DECAYING. NORMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WITH WEAK LOWS IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DECAYING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS
HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

TONIGHT...DRY BUT HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST AND MAY GRAZE THE FAR NORTHEAST AREAS.

THURSDAY...LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD BE 90 TO
95 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF FEATURES.  THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE 500 HPA PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND
A TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAWING WARM...AND MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS AND MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER TO
THE EAST SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT
WITH BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BEING DEPICT STALLED ALONG THE IOWA AND
MISSOURI BORDER. MODELS THEN DEPICT THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN ACTIVE FIRST HALF TO THE
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE FRONT SAGE SOUTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. MINOR FOG IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OF THE REGION...ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AND NC/NE IL...LATE TONIGHT AND ON THU...KEEPING THE
LOCAL AREA DRY.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...UTTECH



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