Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDVN 171134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MACOMB
AREA...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 5000 FT AGL WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.