Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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570
FXUS63 KDVN 061710
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

I HAVE UPDATED TO WITH WITH MORE OF BINARY...THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRATUS IS OPAQUE...AND REINFORCING THE
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF IOWA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES. JUST TO THE EAST...WHERE FULL SUN IS OUT...TEMPERATURES
ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO THE MID 30S AND THAT WILL NOT SLOW DOWN
EXPECT IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS CAN MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S LOOK ON TRACK. THUS A VERY DIFFERENT
SATURDAY FORECAST IS IN STORE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF IOWA TODAY...IMPACTING CID AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME CLEARING AT
CID EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW. FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A QUIET VFR PERIOD IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...A PERIOD OF VFR/CLEAR SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL SITES IN
IOWA BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



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