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000
FXUS63 KDVN 232325
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Seasonally quite strong Canadian high pressure bringing cooler
temperatures on breezy NW winds under a variably cloudy sky.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s SE to the lower 70s NW as cold
air spills in. Upstream shows at 2 PM CDT temperatures mostly in
the mid/upper 60s in the plains. Upper pattern shows below normal
temperatures and dry next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average.
Main issues are chance of isolated showers in PM Saturday far north
may be overdone due to lower dewpoints. Secondary issue is breezy
northwest winds mid to late day on Saturday. Area lows tonight and
highs should generally be within 3 degrees of forecast.

Tonight...areas of cumulus and strato-cumulus should dissipate by
mid evening with diminishing northwest winds to 5 to 10 MPH. Area
lows should be in the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast
sections. This is 7 to 10 degrees below normal.

Saturday...generally mostly sunny skies with some PM cumulus and
low risk of isolated brief showers mid to late PM along highway 20
that may be overdone is get good mixing. Local techniques suggest
winds of 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts near 30 MPH possible along
highway 20 for mixing and lowering dewpoints into the mid to upper
40s suggested. Highs should be in the lower 70s north to the mid
70s central and south. This will be at least 10 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The Canadian high pressure responsible for a free air mass
vacation north will persist over the Midwest through Monday. There
remains energy passing southeast in the upper flow and with
diurnal instability each afternoon, we can not totally rule out a
passing shower, and a lightning bolt or two will also be
possible. As mentioned yesterday, even if you are hit by one of
these showers, the dry air should quickly evaporate any wetness,
and a return to a partly cloudy day in the mid 60s to mid 70s will
commence.

A look at record lows shows that we will be close Sunday morning,
and again Sunday late evening, as temps could drop to the upper 40s
north, but by Monday, the records are colder, and our forecast is
solidly 5 to 8 degrees higher than records.

Looking beyond, to Tuesday through late week, the global models
continue to show a strong surge of warm advection on the back side
of the Canadian high, with fast zonal flow aloft. The pattern favors
a return to normal temperatures and humidity, along with a threat
of thunderstorms. One or more strong MCS are possible, especially
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, and again Friday into
Saturday. Any severe weather threat will need to wait a few more
days to be highlighted, but at least a seasonal risk seems
plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the period as high pressure
remains the dominant feature in our weather going into the
weekend. Only concern will be northwest winds periodically gusting
20+ kts beginning early in the afternoon on Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Record Lows for June 25...

Moline.........46 in 1972
Cedar Rapids...43 in 1936
Dubuque........41 in 1887
Burlington.....49 in 1972

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Speck
CLIMATE...Ervin