Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

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