Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 310420
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
920 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL BY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END SO THE RED FLAG HAS
BEEN CANCELLED AN HOUR EARLY. THERE IS AN EVER SO SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ADDED IN SOME SMOKE OVER INTERIOR AREAS CONSIDERING HOW
MANY FIRES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE DRIVING
IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE ROCKY FIRE IN LAKE COUNTY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 523 PM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE INTERIOR
SO EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS
THROUGH 10 PM. MOST STORMS WILL BE OF THE DRY VARIETY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME
AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL THINGS. FIRST, TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY, AND THEN A FEW MORE ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SECOND,
HIGHER HUMIDITIES. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS. THIRD, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT TOO WET ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE FAVORABLE WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR COULD GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS OR
POSSIBLY SCATTERED WEAKER STORMS BOTH DAYS. THOUGH, PWATS
APPROACHING ONCE INCH SHOULD ALLOW THEM TO PRODUCE RAINFALL THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK CAP COULD BE THE
ONLY THINGS HOLDING THESE STORMS BACK. REGARDLESS, TRENDED UPWARD
WITH THE POPS AND COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE WEEKEND,
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITS THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KACV EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE OR PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RELAX
ACROSS THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST
AND ARE NOW MOVING INTO ZONES 211 AND 204 AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN 212. THUS THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES
AS WELL AS 283 THROUGH 10 PM. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER, THE
THREAT FOR MORE ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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