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000
FXUS63 KFSD 211149
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
649 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Eclipse day is upon us, and the main concerns are with the
conditions around eclipse time, as well as the severe weather
potential as an intensifying boundary slides across the area this
afternoon and early evening.

Persistent band of convection across northwest Iowa early this
morning on back side of large MCS across IA, feeding on low-level
jet of 35-40 kts and healthy elevated CAPE on order of 1500-2000
J/kg. As low-level jet continues to veer and warmer bubble of mid-
level air shifts eastward, should see the convection wind down
across northwest IA fairly early in the morning. Meanwhile, forcing
with main northern stream wave inducing more of an upslope flow into
western SD, and increasing lift forcing resulting in smaller
convective cluster across northwest into north central SD. This
forcing will progress gradually toward K9V9/KHON areas early this
morning, but southward spread early on should be limited by the
warmer air aloft to the south.

OK, the bad news looks to continue for eclipse viewing across the
immediate area. As the outflow pool continues to develop early this
morning, will likely see an expansion of lower clouds westward, the
clouds from northern cluster of storms push into the far northern
areas, and higher clouds start to stream northeast from the high
plains.  Won`t be widespread overcast in all likelihood, and there
will be some spotty areas with enough breaks in clouds, but overall
looking like a mostly cloudy setup in the 11am - 2pm window, with
perhaps the best potential for lesser opaque clouds toward KSUX and
location of outflow strengthen synoptic boundary. In addition to
the clouds, there will be the threat for some convection starting to
enhance along the convergence boundary pushing eastward toward
BKX/MHE/ONL line during the eclipse peak. CAMS are also suggesting
that additional warm advective elevated precip could evolve toward
midday along I-20 and north, but much spottier. The impacts on temp
fields will likely be tempered by the degree of cloudiness and the
higher moisture content of the airmass. Have at most worked in a
drop of a couple of degrees.

With forcing from the northern stream wave pushing into eastern SD
in the early to mid afternoon, the surface boundary looks to respond
by sharpening and becoming somewhat more convergent, and works to
pull the outflow/synoptic warm frontal boundary northward toward the
lower Missouri River valley. Despite warm temps aloft and the
outflow pool yielding an effective cap into midday, the falling
temps aloft and lift forcing should allow convection to begin to
become a bit more boisterous along the boundary as it moves between
the James and I-29 corridors during the early afternoon, although
there is some uncertainty as to what impact the eclipse insolation
drop might have, at least on intensity. The boundary, and subsequent
outflow, is likely to define the greater focus and threat for
severity through the afternoon and early evening as it moves
southeast. Prefrontal instability could reach 2000-2500 J/kg,
somewhat capped, but a nicely thick profile thanks to 8-8.5 C/km mid-
level lapse rates. Shear through the deep layer appears much more
distributed, with the turning of winds through the 35-40 knots of
westerly mid-level wind. Easily enough shear for organized storms,
including supercells. All modes of severe are possible, including
some hail to around 2 inches.  Would expect upscale growth through
the afternoon and early evening as storms progress toward northeast
NE and northwest IA, bowing segments with enhanced wind potential.
Wild card in terms of tornadic potential with storms later in the
afternoon or early evening will be existence/interaction with any
boundaries from this overnight convection.  Will even have to be
concerned with flooding across northwest IA, given some areas of
very heavy rainfall from the current overnight.

The threat of convection will continue greatest across northwest IA
and parts of southwest MN, but progression of wave will put a fairly
quick end to most by late evening. Cooler high pressure will settle
in behind the convective line, with temps falling well into the 50s
by daybreak for most, with some near 60 readings lingering in areas
closer to KSUX/KSLB.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

By Tuesday, high pressure will settle into the region with northwest
flow aloft. This will result in a few days of generally dry
conditions and temperatures a few degrees below their climatological
normals. The GFS is a little more aggressive with a few low end
precip chances mid week along the theta-e boundary and thus some
slight chance mention was included in this forecast.

By Friday, southerly low level winds will be on the increase as the
upper level flow becomes flattened by an incoming shortwave. This
will bring a better chance of precipitation and convection to the
region from Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Extremely complex aviation forecast through the next 12-15 hours.
Currently on the back side of complex of storms across Iowa, with
a hodge podge of IFR to VFR stratus field spreading westward
through southeast SD and southwest MN. Ceilings could be a bit
erratic, but expect that will settle into an MVFR level through
midday for most, eventually displaced by the next convective
threat. Storms will initially be scattered, but increase in
coverage near the boundary working southeast, containing at least
a brief period of IFR visibility and MVFR ceiling at peak, and
have tried to keep a bit shy of potential in general for the TAFs.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Chapman
LONG TERM...JH/Kalin
AVIATION...Chapman