Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 060305
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
805 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THUS REFRESHED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. NUDGED MIN TEMPS UP AS
WELL SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MINIMIZED. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... COLDEST AIR LIES OVER QUEBEC AND NUNAVUT WITH A
COLD CORE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH FROM IT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM RIDGE RUNS UP FROM CALIFORNIA
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US AND CANADA
BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES SET IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SPECIFICALLY LYING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH LIGHT DOWN-SLOPE WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO WILL ALLOW DAY TIMES HIGHS TO REACH UP ABOVE FREEZING
AND MELT OFF REMAINDERS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY... A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FORM AND DRAG DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT THROUGH THE CWA.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOTALS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A RIDGE
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. MINIMAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RMOP AND GFS ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
INCREASE IN DEVIATIONS AND A SUBSEQUENT DROP OFF IN CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT WITH NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT WILL BE VERY EASY DURING THIS TIME FOR A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION FROM ADEQUATE PACIFIC MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.
POPS ARE SETTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP APPEARS AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE 00Z MODELS BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AND 12Z MODELS BRING A FAR MORE TONED
DOWN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY BUT COULD QUICKLY
CHANGE TO FURTHER INCREASE... OR TURN TO DECREASE WITH NEW
ENSEMBLE RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THESE TIME PERIODS
UNTIL THE ZONAL FLOW REORIENTS. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS JUST AS A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXPECT CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THANKS TO WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
INDICATIONS OF A SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCE FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST ON TUESDAY BECOMES A WIDE AND BROAD TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS A BIT
MORE CONSENSUS NOW THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW MORE OF A MOIST SOLUTION THAN BEFORE...COMING IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND DGEX TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL
NO BIG IMPACT AS OF YET. TRIED TO TREND POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SOLUTION. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...WNW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND SCT TO BKN
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT. MARTIN/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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