Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 081005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS CONUS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW OVER MONTANA IS
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS MOSTLY A DRY PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. BUT A
EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. BUT ON TUESDAY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT EASTERN
TROUGH ROTATES AND BACKDOORS THE AREA WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
SPREADING LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES STILL BETWEEN GFS AND NAM CONCERNING QPF AMOUNTS. SO
THERE MAY ONLY BE VIRGA OR MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF
MOISTURE.

WITH THE BOUNDARY FLUCTUATING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY AT TIMES. THERE IS A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN...
LIMITED QPF WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CONTROLLING TO BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO
STRONG WINDS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS. THEREFORE EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD
SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SCT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WESTWARD
AND SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON START TIME
TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPED DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR A RETURN TO
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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