Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 260302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
902 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...
Overnight Updates: Small Adjustments were made to the minimum
temperatures and the hourly temperatures overnight. Adjustments
were also made to increase overnight maximum RH values. Overnight
winds were increase by around 2 kts.

An upper level low continues to set up along the Alberta and
Saskatchewan border with a weak low pressure trough extending
south into NE MT. There is a slight chance of showers moving into
portions of Phillips and Petroleum counties late this evening and
overnight as a weak low pressure trough moves ENE across NE
Montana into Manitoba and North Dakota by Wednesday morning. TEC

Previous Discussion...System over northeast Wyoming today
redevelops well to our east while an upper low spins over southern
Alberta and western Saskatchewan. A surface high over central
Canada will drift east and take the some of the cold air in the
region with it. Pacific moisture will stream into the Pacific NW
tonight and Wednesday with most shower activity staying to our
south and west.

Temperatures are expected to warm a tad but still remain below
normal with highs Wednesday in the 40s east to 50s west. TFJ

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...
The long range pattern as described by the previous shift remains
largely on track. Forecast has been trended to reflect the latest
12Z consensus model blends. A highly amplified trough over the
western and Central CONUS will have much influence in this period
with cloudy and cool temperatures with occasional showers
generated along the front range spilling into the CWA. As moisture
gets cutoff into the weekend there could be some clearing with
warmer temperatures, though another shortwave will likely
approach the forecast area early next week with additional shower
chances for northeast Montana. Maliawco

Previous Long Term Discussion...

Longwave trof over the western/central CONUS will dominate the
weather pattern for the extended period. Shortwaves diving into
the trof will generate showers along the front range, and
possibly extending into the plains through the middle of the week.
With the cold trof overhead and plenty of cloud cover,
temperatures will remain below normal, with showers turning to
snow in the overnight periods possible.

Late in week the development of a stronger storm system in the
desert southwest will cut off much of the moisture into the
northern plains. Should see showers ending and some sun peeking
through to warm temperatures closer to normal for the weekend.

As a storm system lifts toward the Great Lakes early next week,
showers are expected to return to the state with next shortwave
diving into the lingering trof. Ebert



Synopsis: Weather pattern keeps NE Montana trapped in mid- to
low-cloudiness for the next several days. Cool temperatures for
this time of year.

Flight Conditions: VFR, possibly briefly dropping to MVFR at KSDY
and KGDV tonight. Precipitation is expected to remain well to our
south and west.

Ceilings: Generally from 3000 ft to 5000 ft.

Winds: Decreasing easterly winds to less 10 kts tonight then
increasing Wednesday to 10-15 kts, highest at KGGW.





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