Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 261508
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
908 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING REVOLVE AROUND REMOVING THE
REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AS THE QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM HAS EXITED INTO THE DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER... THE SYSTEM HAS LEFT BEHIND A STRONG FOG BANK ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED FOG BANK THIS FOG
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AND COULD EASILY LAST THROUGH 3PM WITH THE
THICKEST AREAS.  GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN IS SET UP OVER CONUS TODAY...WITH A
LONG-WAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG- WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BEGIN THE DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE AIR MASSES. THE BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH WERE THE FOCUS
OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE
AREA. THE BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER EAST TODAY TAKING THE BOUNDARY
WITH IT. HOWEVER IT STALLS NEAR OUR EASTERN BORDER THIS EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS...ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...WILL BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ALONG THE BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LOCAL AREA FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THEN
WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER NEMONT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN SATURDAY BY A
CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE.

SATURDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THEN SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF NEMONT BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. GFS HAS SIGNALED VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREDICTED SURFACE WINDS OF 25-35KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT ARE
MUCH STRONGER. 700MB WINDS RUN UP TO 55KT...PROVIDING THE GUSTS TO
POSSIBLY 60+ MPH. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS THE NAM CATCHING UP WITH THIS
WIND STRENGTH IDEA. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUSTAIN WINDS INTO
THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG. WITH 700MB WIND OF 50+
KTS...A HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANOTHER ISSUE. MODELS HAVE KEPT MOST
PRECIPITATION NORTH IN CANADA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS. HOWEVER
THE LATEST NAM12 IS QUITE WET. SO GRIDDED POPS ARE NOT SET YET. IT
STILL COULD BE A WET AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD GO A LONG WAYS IN
ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM THE WIND. BUT WITH NO
CONSENSUS YET...WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR TO VFR. SLOW IMPROVEMENT.

SYNOPSIS: A QUICK STORMS SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAVE EXITED THE AREA BUT LEFT BEHIND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG WHICH IS HITTING IFR
CONDITIONS FOR KOLF... KSDY... AND KGDV. KOLF AND KSDY WILL TAKE
THE LONGEST TO BURN OFF AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHED CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH NEARLY 21Z AT THE WORST
LOCATIONS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT SUNUP.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.