Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 311447
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
847 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE HAS BEEN POSTED THRU NOON AND THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SHARPEN THE BOUNDARIES OF WHERE SNOW IS FALLING VS
NOT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND 88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THE 700
MB LOW IS BROAD STILL ORGANIZING. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY NEAR LBF.
THE STRONGEST WAA/FGEN WILL BE E OF THIS LOW /OVER SE NEB AND ERN
KS/ AND THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL TODAY.

HOWEVER...MORE MODEST ASCENT JUST N OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIP ROUGHLY ALONG AND N
OF I-80 AND YOU CAN SEE IT TRYING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR.

OVERALL...EXPECT PERIODS OF S TO EVENTUALLY MIX WITH R. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE N OF I-80 AND E OF HWY 281.

GIVEN REASONING MENTIONED BELOW REGARDING SFC TEMPS AND OVERALL
LACK OF HEAVY SNOW...IT WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING EVEN ON
GRASSY SURFACES. SO DAYTIME SNOWFALL ACCUMS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ARE MONITORING INCOMING COOP/COCORAHS OBS. PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN/WEBSTER/SMITH/JEWELL HAVE HAD 1". HIGHEST SO FAR 1.8 AT
JEWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH BY THIS
EVENING TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS WHERE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS SFC TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 32 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS OF 4 AM MOST AREAS HAD TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
BETWEEN 33 AND 35 DEGREES. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGREES LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PLENTY COLD FOR SNOW
AND SO THE PRIMARY QUESTION CENTERS AROUND SFC TEMPERATURES. IF WE
HOLD IN THE 33 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ACCUMULATE SNOW TODAY. IF WE CLIMB INTO THE 35 TO 37 RANGE WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER...IF THE SNOW COMES DOWN
HARD ENOUGH AND CAUSES US TO COOL DOWN TO 31 OR 32 WE COULD SEE
MORE ACCUMULATION THAN EXPECTED TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS ASSUMING HIGHS OF 34 TO 36 IS GENERALLY CALLING
FOR 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD PRIMARILY BE
ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. RAIN AND SNOW BANDS LOCATED SOUTH
OF I-80 AT 4 AM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED IN EXPECTED
BY MID MORNING. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. AGAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON WHERE TEMPERATURES END UP TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
SEND THE TEMPERATURES FALLING AND ALLOW ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW...WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO MORE EASILY
ACCUMULATE SINCE WE WILL NOW BE BELOW FREEZING. FORECAST MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND OUR EASTERN ZONES (EAST OF GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS (3 TO 4 INCHES). THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
INDICATING THE MOST SNOW AND THE 06Z GFS IS SHOWING MORE SNOW THAN
EARLIER FORECAST RUNS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THE ADVISORY OVER OUR EAST MAY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND NEW ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WENT WITH WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...AND THAT IS OUR
EAST.

WE WILL ALSO REALLY WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR THE INCREASING WIND LATE
TONIGHT (25-30 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH)...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SOME OF THE LATER SNOW THAT FALLS. THIS
INITIAL SNOW WILL BE WET...BUT THE SNOW THAT FALLS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LESS STICKY AND SHOULD BLOW AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BY MID DAY THE SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA.
SKIES START TO CLEAR BEHIND THE SNOW AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR
HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE GUSTY.

FOR MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE. THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER. THE WARM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE IS MORE MOISTURE
AGAIN AND INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE IFR OR
EVEN LIFR CATEGORY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. MOST
OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TONIGHT AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-063-064.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY


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