Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
838 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Updated the forecast this evening to show a general decreasing
trend in POPs this evening with the deformation band to the
northwest. Latest short term models may be a bit quick o diminish
this precip. Also, redevelopment is looking more likely in our
east overnight with latest short term numerical models and I will
increase POPs a bit more there later on tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main concern in the short term is how quickly precipitation
will exit tonight into early Saturday. The upper low is currently
working it`s way across the Central Plains with the surface low
tracking just a bit further south into Oklahoma than thought
yesterday. This pulled the front through the region a bit quicker
this morning and the temps over portions of north central Kansas
didn`t get quite as high as expected. However, the gradient across
the front was substantial. Light precipitation has persisted and
developed across portions of south central Nebraska along the I-80
corridor. This activity will be light and generally off and on,
but there could be some longer periods of rain. Despite the
rain...it is light and expect accumulations to be light.

As the upper low moves slowly eastward, precipitation will
diminish over central portions of Nebraska and redevelop over
portions of eastern Nebraska during the evening and overnight
hours. The question is how quickly this activity will exit to the
east...and am currently thinking most activity will be out of the
area by sunrise Saturday, with most areas dry after midnight
tonight.

Clouds will stick around for a good portion of tomorrow, with
clearing from the west to the east. Highs are expected to be near
normal in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The extended continues to be active, with multiple disturbances
moving across the area. The first is on Sunday into Monday, but
the guidance is again keeping the wave further south like it was a
couple of days ago, which would impact mainly Kansas. Confidence
in this period and precipitation impacting north central Kansas is
not overly high. Think it will largely be dry.

The next upper disturbance quickly arrives on the tails of the
sunday disturbance, but the guidance the last couple of days has
it nearly cutting off from the upper flow. How this wave is going
to impact the area is not well anticipated at this time. Think
the precipitation potential is a bit high for portions of the area
from Tuesday through Thursday. Do not expect that south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas will see that many or that high
of chances for precip. That being said, it is the next best
chance for accumulating precip in the next 7 days. Stay tuned as
this system nears and the details are refined.

Highs through the remainder of the forecast are in the 50s and low
60s which is near climatic norms for this time of year. Lows are
in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The trickiest part of the forecast will be visibility tonight.
Although wind will be a bit breezy from the north, showers may
decrease visibility at times this evening. Also, ceilings may
decrease to LIFR later tonight as a shrinking deformation band of
rain begins pivoting and moving east across the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Heinlein



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