Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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