Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ODX REPORTED A G38 KTS ABOUT 30 MIN AGO. BBW 39 KTS. SO SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WERE NUDGED A LITTLE HIGHER THRU 16Z.

TEMPS CONT TO RESIST FALLING DESPITE MODEL INSISTENCE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP CURVES THRU MIDDAY. BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY CONT TO SLOWLY DROP PAST SUNRISE AND THRU MID-MORNING.

RADAR SHOWS THE POCKETS OF FLURRIES HAVE MOVED INTO THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM E OF KEARNEY. WE HAVE SMALL FLURRIES HERE AT THE
OFFICE AT THIS TIME.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TODAY: AS MODELS DEPICTED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS ARE ON
THE DOORSTEP. BBW/ODX/OLU ARE ALL REPORTING 2500-3000 FT CIGS. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY AND AFFECT
THE AIRPORTS THRU MIDDAY. NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED 38-39 KTS AT ODX/
BBW IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AT GRI/EAR THRU 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS BREAK UP LEAVING VFR MID-HIGH CIGS AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT DOWN
TO 5K. LIGHT WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE N WILL SHIFT TO SE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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