Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280033
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
733 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast concern, as it has been for about the past 10 days, is
off and on precipitation chances.

Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low responsible for
the weather the past week is finally on the move and was currently
near the CO/KS/NE border. The system is almost but not quite
vertically stacked as the surface low was just a tad north of Garden
City KS at 18Z. Inverted surface trough extended northeast from the
low up towards southern Iowa. Temps have been slow to warm today due
to mid morning convection and extensive cloud cover. However clouds
have thinned just a bit and some diurnal temp rises now occurring.

Once again a difficult scenario coming up in the next 24 hours as
the low noted above moves through our area. Models showing the
orientation of the inverted trough may change with the northern
axis bending back into our southern CWA by 00Z. This should
provide additional convergence for our area later this afternoon.
that combined with overall ascent associated with approaching
upper wave should result in more precipitation with the better
chance of severe in the south and southeast. That being said,
enough instability around to produce hit or miss showers/tstms
later this afternoon and evening across the entire CWA, but
believe the main show would be in our south closer to where the
surface low rides northeast along the inverted trough. This will
also be where the best instability is realized although it is
still a bit meager. Expect the main threat to be winds/hail but
last 0-1 bulk shear values from the SPC meso page did have 10-15
kt and with low LCL values cannot rule out a tornado or two.

Precipitation chances should start to wane during the day Saturday
as the upper low passes, so will end it west to east as the day
progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Starting out Saturday evening with the big picture, the upper low
should have weakened into an open wave and is progged to be east
of the CWA near the I-29 corridor. Weak ridging will work its way
into the Plains behind this wave, with two areas of low pressure
to the west, one over southern CA and the other off the BC
Canadian coast. This should allow for mainly dry weather Sat night
and during the day on Sunday, although the latest GFS operational
run develops some afternoon/evening convection with an impulse
swinging in from the southwest.

Monday and Tuesday then become active once again as the western
upper lows noted above progress towards us. Will be several
shortwaves pushing through ahead of the main low impacting the
central plains. Still some differences in timing between the models
as the GFS keep the northern low closed off and has it on the
central MT/WY border by 12z Tue. Eventually the GFS ends up with an
omega block scenario from Wed through the following weekend with the
front end low anchored just to our SE. This would result in us
remaining in a wet pattern.  EC more progressive and dry although it
has slowed down a little from the last run.  Will be interesting to
see which model pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

There will be scattered thunderstorms around the area this evening
into tonight. Rain chances will decrease through the morning hours
on Saturday. Expect MVFR ceilings at times tonight with improving
conditions and generally VFR ceilings by later Saturday morning.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Wesely



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