Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 050948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED JET STREAK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...THOUGH A BIT WEAKER AT
75 KTS...SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KPGA-KSBS LINE BEFORE NOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTED
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL BRING ABOUT ROUGHLY A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE DAY. PRE-FRONTAL PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE I-70
CORRIDOR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT STALLING NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS AND THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS. THE JET
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SO EXPECT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING CONTINUES SUNDAY AS FLOW REMAINS MORE
WESTERLY KEEPING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME LARGELY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...IT APPEARS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE
A FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SW CO AND SE UT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATER SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A DRY
SPELL THAT WILL LAST THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TUE AND WED WILL SEE DRY WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LITTLE CHANCE
OF RAIN. WED NGT AN IMPULSE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND DRAG THE TAIL OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM N TO S. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH IT AND
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MTS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF THE TEMP. FRIDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MTS AS A BIT OF MOISTURE MIGHT SLIP IN
FROM THE SE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CO THIS
MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BEFORE NOON. MT TOPS WILL BE
LOCALLY OBSCD. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. KASE AND KEGE WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN SHOWERS
BY FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE DEGRADED.

FOR THE REST OF THE TODAY A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE TSTMS VCNTY FROM ABOUT 20Z TO 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



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