Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
338 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Local webcams and observations showing some snow over Rabbit Ears
Pass and the rest of the northern mountains thanks to the weak
shortwave and favorable orographics. 2 to 4 inches still looks
good with light snow continuing through the mid-morning hours. A
few spots are reporting some midlevel clouds at the moment but
these should move off by daybreak, give or take an hour or so.
Look for another cold start to the day with afternoon highs also
relatively cool thanks to inversions remaining in place. Higher
elevations, above the inversions, will see warmer temperatures as
is always the case this year.

A few high clouds will move overhead Wednesday with the only
change being upper level winds becoming more southwesterly which
will usher in warmer temperatures. Despite that, some valleys will
be hard-pressed to break out of their inversions so high
temperatures will vary from place to place. For the most part
though, high temperatures should be a little warmer than seen
over the last few days.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

High pressure will be shifting east as the next long wave trough
moves onshore. This brings strengthening southwest flow over the
forecast area by Thursday with breezy to windy conditions
developing by early afternoon. Energy kicking out of the main
trough will bring increasing moisture and a chance for rain/snow
to the area late Thursday night and Friday. Models have been
retreating back to the north over the past few runs and confidence
remains low on a widespread, significant impact type of storm. So
more or less another weakening wave that bring a little more snow,
but not a lot. Flat ridging then builds to our west with flow
aloft becoming more west-northwest. Enough dirt in this ridge (aka
moisture) that we could see a few orographic showers over the
northern mountains through the weekend. Otherwise the pattern
remains dry with slowly moderating temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Some mid-level broken to overcast ceilings are being reported
along the I-70 corridor and also KEGE and KASE but are expected to
move off shortly after daybreak. Once this happens, VFR will the
norm for all TAF sites. Some lower ceilings and snow will continue
over the Park and Gore Ranges so expect inclement weather if
heading in that direction today. Outside of that area, do not
expect aviation concerns.




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