Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 210938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
338 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A flat ridge of high pressure over the Mountain West will continue
to bring sunny skies to the region today. Strong solar insolation
will efficiently warm dry soils which then readily transfer that
heat to the lower atmosphere. This process will bring slightly
warmer than normal conditions to the area during the afternoon.

Clear skies and a very dry atmosphere points to strong radiational
cooling overnight. This will cause temperatures to cool to within
a few degrees on either side of normal.

Sunny skies and unseasonable warmth will continue into Saturday
in the absence of any significant change in the pattern. This
combined with decent warm air advection will cause temperatures to
jump by 3 to 8 degrees. Though Saturday`s highs will be well above
normal, it doesn`t appear that record breaking warmth will occur.
Meanwhile, the pressure gradient aloft strengthens over the area
which will generate mildly breezy conditions, especially across
the north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dry weather will persist for the weekend as high pressure remains in
control. Sunday will be the warmest day with temperatures well above
normal under sunny skies and strong warm air advection.

Unsettled weather returns going into the new work week as the
ridge of high pressure shifts east. Southwesterly flow will pull
impressive moisture into the region beginning late Sunday. The GFS
is more aggressive with this trail of moisture, while the Euro is
not as widespread. Regardless, the favored turn of upper level
winds will bring a steady stream of clouds and scattered showers
starting as early as Monday morning with coverage increasing from
west to east. Cooler weather will result, but does not appear to
be as significant as before. Snow levels will remain above 10K
feet with 700mb temperatures bottoming out at 2 to 5 degrees C
Tuesday morning with the Euro being a few degrees warmer.

Models diverge towards the end of the run, but drier westerly flow
looks to set up over the forecast area at the midweek point.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with relatively
light diurnally driven winds.






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