Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1143 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Today-tonight...northeast to southwest oriented ridge axis moves
into the area in between low pressure systems over Kentucky and
north of Montana. 850mb temperatures warm about 13F (east) to 24F
(west) compared to yesterday and would support highs in the low to
mid 80s. MET/MAV/bias corrected grids support readings in the 70s.
Have blended the two with advertised highs in the low 70s east to
around 80 in parts of Yuma county Colorado. Low temperatures not as
cold compared to this morning with readings in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night...dry weather is expected in the morning
with thunderstorm chances increasing in the afternoon as a weather
disturbance moves off the Colorado front range and into the western
1/2 of the forecast area. Area will also be under left front quad of
upper jet aiding in upper divergence below modestly unstable
atmosphere. Thunderstorm chances continue through about midnight or
so for the area as the afternoon convection moves east. Models
suggesting another disturbance (weaker) may move through the
southern half of the area after midnight producing a slight chance
of thunderstorms. High temperature forecast will be tricky given
timing of convection and frontal boundary. Currently have mid 70s
northwest to mid 80s far south. Low temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...may see some morning rain showers across parts
of Yuma county as a piece of energy moves northeast ahead of
approaching upper trough. During the afternoon hours a bit more
significant disturbance moves in along with increasing upper jet
support. GFS shows this disturbance further east compared to the NAM
so for now nearly all (but far eastern counties) will have a chance
of thunderstorms mentioned. For the overnight hours bulk of 850-
500mb moisture and best pops generally along and north of the
interstate. Currently have high temperatures in the low to mid 70s
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

The extended period is currently forecast to have precipitation
chances during Saturday but dry conditions are currently looking to
overcome the region, for the most part, Sunday through Tuesday.

Staring off on Saturday, there will be chances for rain showers and
storms most of the day. This is due to a trough pushing through the
region (there is a closed low over south central Canada creating
this upper level flow pattern over the area). Based on current
guidance, it is difficult to determine how severe the storms will
become. There is instabilty and shear over the region but the CAPEs
are not impressive enough at this time to raise any flags. Severe
storms are not out of the question though, Saturday will need to
continue to be monitored as data becomes more clear.

Sunday through Tuesday will have a persistent upper level northwest
flow over the region, but dry air will limit precipitation chances
over the CWA. There is a brief window on Monday afternoon where
portions of the region could see slight chances for rain showers and
storms. The EC is the only model at this time to show a
precipitation signal, so confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures during the period will be the lowest on Saturday in the
60s and low 70s. The remainder of the period will be in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds today will
become breezy for KGLD tonight. During the night LLWS will occur
at both sites as a strong low level jet develops. Winds will turn
to the northwest behind a weak cold front in the morning. The
front will stall around KMCK in the late morning and early
afternoon causing winds to be light and variable.




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