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000
FXHW60 PHFO 250630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AREA WILL KEEP A TRADE
WIND WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS
REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE SHOWERS FAIRLY ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED AROUND 1300 MILES NE OF
THE ALOHA STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE N
CPAC. LATEST SFC ANALYSES LOCATE THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 400 MILES N
OF THE ISLANDS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATING S AND GETTING CLOSER TO
THE ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE A BRIEF WEAKENING
OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THEN THE TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NE TO SW ORIENTED
UPPER LVL TROUGH AND LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI...WHICH IS
STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA BY KEEPING SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF OF THE STATE. MODELS MOVE THIS TROUGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BECOME MORE STABLE.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE BIG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND.
HOWEVER..IT IS STILL EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER...IF IT MATERIALIZES.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CLOSE-TO-CLIMO
POPS...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RAINFALL WILL STILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS POSSIBLE FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE EITHER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NW AND S SWELLS WILL KEEP DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS MAY BE EXTENDED AND
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE KAIWI CHANNEL SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LUTU-MCMOORE