Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 012054
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
154 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION...SO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND WILL MOVE INLAND BY THURSDAY...OR TOMORROW. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE STARTING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...OR AROUND 5 DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD HIGH VALUES.

SHORT-TERM CONCERNS ARE LOW HUMIDITY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN TULARE
AND KERN COUNTIES...AS THE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...ARE EXPECTING THE
LONGEST PERIOD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS FOR NOW.
MODELS SHOW SOME RECOVERY IN HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MAY BE LITTLE CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOW LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY
SOMEWHAT WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AT
TIMES. AT ANY RATE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP DURING FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. FROM
THE ROCKIES EASTWARD AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE
REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891
KFAT 10-03      101:1980     62:1916     69:2012     41:1908

KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
KBFL 10-03      103:1933     64:1916     72:2012     34:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ295-297.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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