Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 042201
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
301 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LONG BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ONSHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
FORECASTED IN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT. THE CLOUD COVER IS FROM A
LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO.
THE MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER NCAL ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE. WEATHER RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NCAL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT. THINK
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF YOSEMITE DUE TO DRY LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FETCH OF MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THINK SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONCERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE
AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLES PROGS NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE SYSTEM. EC MODEL ALSO
RELATIVELY DRY WHILE THE GFS/ETA PROG SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THUS WILL INDICATE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA. DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
COASTAL PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
SOME RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE LOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE KERN
COUNTY AREA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER TROUGH TO
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RESULTING PATTERN
HAS STRONG SIMILARITIES TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER
CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956
KFAT 08-05      110:1895     83:1957     79:1998     51:1950
KFAT 08-06      110:1902     78:1999     77:1998     54:1950

KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
KBFL 08-05      110:1998     85:1957     84:1909     52:1899
KBFL 08-06      110:1990     79:1999     85:1978     54:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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