Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 261130
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
330 AM PST Sun Feb 26 2017
A weak weather disturbance will drop south of the district this
morning as another disturbance moves into the region.
Precipitation may push into the district this evening and continue
over the area through Monday. A warming and drying trend will
then take place between Tuesday and next weekend.
Weather disturbance moving through California this morning and
mainly affecting the coastal regions. The upper low that was
progged to move into Central California on Saturday has stayed
mostly offshore and should cross the coast-line this morning
through Southern California. In the meanwhile, precipitation will
remain along the coast with light accumulation over Kern County.
The current trend is to have the storm continuing to move
southeast and exit the district later this morning. Upper air
observations and temperature profiler data indicating a snow level
near 4000 feet this morning. Therefore, while snow could reach
Tejon pass this morning, will expect a light dusting before the
storm pushes south.
In the meanwhile, temperatures were running a few degrees warmer
this morning compared to Saturday morning. With the trend toward
warmer conditions, near freezing conditions will be more difficult
to reach with an influx of moisture and the orientation of the
wind flow aloft. Therefore, the change in the flow aloft to a
westerly direction is supporting the warming of overnight low
temperatures. Freezing is therefore not expected this morning as
warning criteria will not be met.
Sunday night will see a second stronger trof (with good difluent
flow over Central California) push into the area for a better
chance of precipitation. Satellite and model upper air analysis
place the next disturbance near Washington coast and tracking due
south. Being a much strong trof, models indicate the formation of
a cold front that is progged to enter Northern California this
evening and travel south through Central California overnight.
Therefore, precipitation may be possible later this evening with
the best chances toward Monday morning. By Monday, cyclonic flow
over the region will allow for the continuation of unsettled
conditions. In addition, convective parameters show some
instability over the region. Therefore, some showers could linger
over the area on Monday (mainly over the Sierra Nevada) with the
region drying on Tuesday.
Longer range models still indicate the possibility of a dry
extended as a ridge pattern settles over the West Coast by mid-
week. Models confidence is not high, but models are trending
toward a ridge over the west through next weekend. Currently, the
ECMWF shows a disturbance riding over the ridge next Friday, but,
keeps the main energy well north of the district. Therefore,
confidence toward a dry extended forecast is growing and will
therefore maintain that wording for now.
Local MVFR conditions in clouds and precipitation in the Kern
County mountains through 18z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.