Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 252148
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
248 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016
A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California
Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures.
These conditions will persist over the region for most of the coming
week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the
area. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible along
the Sierra crest by Thursday, then spreading to the Kern County
mountains and desert Friday through the weekend.
Clear and dry conditions across central CA this afternoon.
Temperatures running a bit cooler in the NW portions of the
central San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise a mix bag amounting to
little change. The slight cooling towards north Los Banos N Merced
area was due to a stronger onshore flow as a disturbance moved out
of the PacNw. A ridge in the SW U.S will expand into central CA
Tuesday. This will diminish the marine layer along the coast and
decrease the onshore gradients resulting in a warmer trend.
The ridge core centered over the four corners region will drift
West to over Southern Nevada by midweek. High temperatures will
remain several degrees above normal with widespread triple digit
heat in the lower elevations, but are not expected to reach record
levels. The dry air will allow temperatures to cool off overnight
for some relief from the heat with diurnal swings of 35 to 40
degrees. The ridge will finally begin to weaken and drift back
east next weekend. Op models and ensembles remain in good
agreement and show a trough in the northeast Pacific gradually
moving inland to our north. This will bring a modest cooling trend
with temperatures only lowering to slightly above normal during
the weekend. Of note, we are currently in the midst of the hottest
time of the year for the district climatologically, which runs
from mid July through early August.
The models have been advertising a push of monsoonal moisture this
week and satellite water vapor imagery shows it beginning to move
over Southern CA. The mid-level moisture will gradually spread
northward with some afternoon cumulus possible over the mountains
Wednesday. Models have been trending little faster with the
moisture, with some light QPF of the Southern Sierra by Wednesday
afternoon. Slight chance pops were in place for the mountains and
desert beginning Thursday. The moisture doesn`t look very
impressive, but enough to support isolated afternoon convection.
The threat will continue into the weekend but a drier southwest
flow aloft should shift the moisture eastward by early next week.
VFR conditions can be expected through Central California for at
least the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday July 25 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno... Kings and Tulare
Counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for
sensitive groups in Kern... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.