Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 192200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY, A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PUSHED INTO NORCAL. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM YDAY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWFA TODAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON. WV IS INDICATING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AIMED
TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
OUR AREA WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE
CA COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
RIDGE NOW ANTICIPATED TO BUILD FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...THE EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIGHT NOT BE AS
PREVALENT AS ADVERTISED. AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN
THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY EITHER LIFT THE FOG INTO A
STRATUS DECK OR MIX IT OUT COMPLETELY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO FOG AND STRATUS MIGHT BE
MORE PREVALENT IN THE VALLEY ON THOSE DAYS AND ADVERSELY IMPACT
HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY
MIDWEEK AS A PAC SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT REDUCING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE
AN INSIDE SLIDER TRAJECTORY AND DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH FURTHER TO OUR
EAST AND THE 12Z GEM SPLITS THE SYSTEM WITH BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS LEAVING OUR AREA MAINLY DRY. THE MOD TREND IS FAVORING
THE GFS IDEA BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS
FOR NOW AND INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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