Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 271009
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
309 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR COMPARED TO
24 HRS AGO. THIS IS A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RESIDES OVER
CA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME EVEN WARMER
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE HOTTEST LOCALES OF THE SJ VLY AND THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT WILL TOP THE CENTURY MARK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. IN FACT...BEACHGOERS MIGHT NOTICE
A STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP RATHER QUIETLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND PUT CA BACK UNDER A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE STARTED WITH THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL NORTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY IF A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A DEEP ENOUGH MARINE LAYER
INTO THE SJ VLY LATER THIS WEEKEND.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECM ARE POLARIZED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. WHILE BOTH AGREE THERE WILL BE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THERE IS LARGE DISPARITY OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS MORE ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PAC NW AND CARVES A TROUGH OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECM FORECASTS THE EPAC RIDGE TO DOMINATE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. IF THE ECM IS RIGHT...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS
IN FOR A BIG WARMUP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS
FORECASTS A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH NEUTRAL TEMP
TRENDS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE GFS SOLN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
OVER CA RATHER THAN ANY PRONOUNCED RIDGING. WHATEVER THE CASE...
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH DAY 7.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 27 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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