Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 211757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Forecast overall looks in good shape and just a few adjustments to
sky cover and winds today. Much of central/se IL enjoying sunny skies
this morning with clouds se near the Ohio river and 2-4k ft broken
to overcast clouds just nne of our CWA over northern IL. Expect the
cumulus/stratocumulus clouds to expand southward into central IL
by afternoon with areas from I-74 seeing the most of these lower
clouds where skies to become mostly cloudy. Just scattered clouds
developing over sw areas where partly to mostly sunny skies
prevail this afternoon. These clouds due to strong 553 dm 500 mb
low over northern Lake MI which tracks into the eastern Great
Lakes into this evening and IL staying in its strong upper level trof.
Cooler highs today range from near 70F from I-74 ne to the mid 70s
in southeast IL by Lawrenceville. Breezy nw winds of 12-20 mph
with gusts of 20-30 mph today to make it feel a bit cooler today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

The precipitation and trailing cold front will have pushed well
south of the CWA by forecast time, so will not have any precip
mentioned in the forecast for today. Even though high pressure will
build into the plains, the area will remain under the influence of
cyclonic flow. This flow will combine with low level moisture from
the rain yesterday to produce partly to mostly sunny conditions,
with most of the clouds being in the northeast, closer to the upper
level system. As the upper level trough rotates through northeast
IL, some scatter showers could develop, but believe these will
remain northeast of the area. Colder air will advect into the region
today, so highs will only reach to around 70 over most of the CWA,
but low to mid 70s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

High pressure continues to build into the region behind the frontal
passage this morning through the week.  Forecast remains quiet and
dominated by large ridge over much of the eastern half of the CONUS
and a persistent sfc ridge over the Midwest.  Weak flow under the
sfc high becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts
slightly eastward.  Slow warming trend starts as a result and
continues through the end of the week with warm temps just above
normals by Thursday. Although some  systems move across the country,
including a weak trof in the Plains for midweek, no precip is able
to move into the ridge and the forecast remains dry through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR conditions should continue across the central IL airports
through 18Z/1 pm Monday. Strong 555 dm 500 mb low near Saginaw Bay
in east central lower MI is producing broken cu/stratocu clouds
of 3.5-5k ft along and nne of I-74. These clouds to continue to
expand southward into central IL next few hours and reach into DEC
after 19Z and possibly SPI by 20Z which will be on sw edge of this
cloud deck later this afternoon. Models have trended slower with
clearing the cu/stratocu clouds and could linger until 02Z-04Z
along I-74 especially at BMI and CMI. Fair skies expected across
area overnight into Monday. Breezy nw winds of 12-17 kts with
gusts of 20-27 kts this afteroon due to tight pressure gradient
between 999 mb surface low pressure in southeast Ontario north of
Lake Ontario and 1028 mb high pressure over western Dakotas and
western NE. Winds to diminish to 4-8 kts by sunset and veer more
northerly and continue Monday morning. No fog expected overnight
with drier air advecting in on NNW winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.