Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220807 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
407 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS A WARM
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT...WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO EASTERN CANADA.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A DRY AIR COLUMN ACROSS THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS TOO FOR
TODAY. AS A RESULT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SUNDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED LIFTING
MECHANISMS IN PLACE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
SLIGHTLY. DO NOT THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL EVEN RECEIVE ANY
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME MUGGIER WITH 40S AND 50S TONIGHT...AND UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
ALL PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONFIDENT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOW ONY SEE FEW-SCT VFR DIURNAL CU AND CI AFTER 16Z.

WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WIND...BUT SREF FOG AND LOW CEILING PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH MOS
SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF ANY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM OF
LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

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