Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241423
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A weak frontal system is expected to move through the area towards
the middle of week, otherwise high pressure is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Forecast is in good shape. Nudged up temperatures some areas based
on persistence and on where air is coming from today was still hot
yesterday.

Previous discussion follows...

Some patchy fog is expected through the mid morning hours today, as
has been the case over the past several mornings.

Otherwise, strong mid level ridging aloft should result in dry and
warm weather today. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs
for today look a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
numbers about a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Model data suggest a static weather pattern will continue during
this period with strong mid level ridging over the Ohio Valley, and
long wave troughing over the Rockies.

Operational and ensemble data suggest little threat for
precipitation during this period, given the strong upper ridge
overhead. A weakening frontal zone may move into the area Tuesday
night, but significant forcing is lacking. Will keep the short term
dry.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance is probably too cool. Will raise the guidance about 3-5
degrees each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High confidence that there will be big changes to the weather
regarding temperatures for mid to late week. Exact timing of a pair
of cold fronts and of associated upper waves along with moisture
will be the main issues. However, in no scenario does significant
rain look possible. So with model differences, will just accept the
blend which has brief low pops Wednesday moving from northwest to
southeast with the first system and low pops Friday night far north
with the latter.

Low to moderate confidence that Wednesday will see one more day of
above normal temperatures with below temperatures by Thursday or
Friday per the blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 241500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

TAF looks good. No changes needed.

Previous discussion follows...

Patchy visibility restrictions in fog expected to dissipate by the
mid morning hours.

Otherwise, no significant cloud cover at the terminals today.
Light surface winds early this morning will become 110-140
degrees at 8-11 kts by early afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS/50


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