Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
942 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Near term and Aviation Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Light rain showers and drizzle will move out of the area later
tonight as low pressure moves further away from the area. Small
chances for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
then change over to a mix and then snow Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The more seasonable air will settle in through
at least Monday with small waves moving through the flow bringing
small chances for snow to the area off and on.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 942 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Radar indicated showers were occurring across the far eastern parts
of our forecast area with areas of drizzle over the eastern half.
Satellite indicated clouds were occurring just about everywhere
east of the Mississippi river.  Models indicate area of rain
showers will pull eastward overnight and latest radar trends
indicating this is starting to happen.   Overall current forecast
is on track and only a few minor tweaks made.

Previous near term discussion follows... Cloudy skies will continue
through the night on the back side of low pressure. Chances for
light rain showers and patchy drizzle will continue until at least
midnight, with the highest chances across the northeastern and
eastern counties, tapering to dry pops and weather in the western
counties. Most guidance is showing little in the way of fog tonight
so have not included that at this point. For low temperatures used a
consensus average in the mid to upper 30s with neutral advection and
cloudy skies.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Expect clouds will continue to hang around through the day on
Tuesday with an inversion in place. Thus stuck near cooler end of
the guidance envelope for highs in the mid 40s to around 50.
Tuesday night a system approaches from the plains and expect to
see small chances for rain arrive late. Wednesday a cold front
will move through during the day providing some surface forcing,
but upper forcing is lacking over the area. Thus will expect an
increase in cloud cover and some very low chance to slight chance
pops but nothing more. Wednesday night though the upper forcing
increases and a secondary cold front will move through. This
combination of forcing prompted high chance pops across the area
after midnight Wednesday night, and should see precip change from
rain to a mix of rain and snow over to snow during the night.
While only a trace amount to a couple tenths of an inch are
expected, this could still impact the Thursday morning commute.
Ground and pavement temperatures should remain above freezing so
bridges and overpasses would be the main concern.

Thursday high temperatures should reach the middle 30s to around
40, so could see a mix of rain and snow as well with any precip
that remains during the day. However expect lower pops on Thursday
with the best forcing already east of the area.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The extended period will see a full transition commence to a more
typical late January weather pattern for the Ohio Valley and Great
lakes region.

Amplified upper level flow pattern will continue over the
contiguous U S for late week and the weekend but with a shift from
the recent the broad ridge refocuses over the western
part of the country and the trough sets up downstream across the
region. Several waves will rotate around the parent upper low as
it slowly tracks through the Great Lakes east into New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. This will keep central Indiana within a
broad cyclonic flow with cold air being drawn into the region
throughout the weekend. Expect periodic threats for light snow
showers...flurries and clouds as these waves traverse around the
base of the trough and through the area. Temperatures will be much
more typical of mid winter...with highs generally in the upper 20s
to mid 30s and lows primarily in the 20s.

Potential for a brief relaxing of the colder pattern on Monday as
extended guidance in agreement on ridging aloft transitioning
through ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front diving
out of the Canadian prairies. The front is progged to pass through
the region just beyond the 7 day period with a resumption of the
colder and more unsettled pattern as northwest flow aloft sets up
by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240300z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 942 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.

Previous aviation discussion follows...IFR flight conditions will be
the rule overnight with ceilings 6 hundred to thousand feet. Could
be some patchy drizzle overnight but chances are too low to mention.

low pressure along the middle atlantic coast will move eastward
and a weak ridge of high pressure currently over Missouri will
move our way Tuesday.  This will be followed by another low
pressure system which will move into the central plains Tuesday
and to near Kansas city by Tuesday evening.

Ceilings will improve to MVFR by mid to late Tuesday morning and
to VFR by late Tuesday afternoon.

Winds will be from the northwest around 10 knots this evening
gradually diminishing overnight and becoming light Tuesday morning.
Winds Tuesday will become south or southeast and increase to 10
knots by end of the forecast period.




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