Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271137
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
637 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The fluctuating pattern will continue across Central Indiana as
temperatures climb into the upper 60s by Tuesday then plummet back
into the 40s on Thursday. First, rain showers will be possible
across south/southeastern portions of the forecast area today
ahead of a weak wave. Focus then turns to a low pressure system
progged for Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to
produce strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday evening/night.
After the associated cold front passes through on Wednesday, temps
will fall closer to normal, and there will be rain/snow showers
at times on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Further out, dry
conditions will prevail for most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The main focus of the near term will be rain chances across the
south/southeastern portions of Central Indiana.

Current radar mosaic has some light returns over central and
southern portions of the forecast area, but best lift with
approaching weak wave will keep most of it confined across the
southern portions of the area through the day.

All rain will end by late afternoon, and there will be a brief
lull in activity with a few dry hours before rain/thunderstorms
return ahead of approaching warm front this evening.

Daytime highs today will top off in the 50s, did not deviate from
latest Superblend initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances and severe threat with approaching low pressure system.

First, inserted mention for thunder starting tonight as warm
front approaches from the southwest. Will keep that threat in the
forecast throughout Tuesday morning and afternoon, but the best
threat will come on Tuesday evening and night as low level jet
increases to nearly 68 kts. SPC continues to have all of central
Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather with decent
instability and forcing. Daytime highs tomorrow will top off in
the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints in the 50s.

Additional forcing will be provided by the associated cold front
on Wednesday, so will continue to carry mention of thunder through
Wednesday morning, but severe threat should be over by then. All
thunderstorms should be out of the area by late Wednesday
afternoon.

Colder air will return for Wednesday night as temps dip back into
the low 30s. This was handled best by latest Superblend
initialization.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Models are in good agreement regarding overall synoptic pattern for
the late week and the weekend. This lends to good confidence that a
clipper system will move over northern Indiana and bring
precipitation to the area late Thursday and Thursday night. Then
high pressure should keep it dry for the weekend. Dropped small pops
likely from the Canadian model for overnight Saturday night per
coordination with LMK, ILX and PAH.

Temperatures should start off seasonable in the wake of a cold
front. Then, they should return to well above normal by Sunday as
the high shifts to the southeastern states allowing for a return
flow around its backside. Superblend reflects this well with highs
in the lower 40s to lower 50s Thursday and lower 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/12Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 628 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Light rain showers will be possible today ahead of a weak wave,
but they will not impact flight conditions. VFR conditions will
prevail into tonight, but thunderstorm chances will increase after
Tue 06Z. That`s when conditions will deteriorate to MVFR category
and then even further to IFR category after daybreak tomorrow
morning as moisture is drawn into the area with a warm front.
Winds will generally be southerly at 5 to 10 kts, increasing to 12
kts tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 22 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD



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