Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 211515 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1015 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

For morning discussion.


Overall quiet forecast period in store as cold air advection
continues to drive in cooler temperatures and drier air aloft in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. 12Z upper analysis shows the deep
longwave trough over the Great Lakes and extending into the Lower MS
Valley while northwest flow and cold air advection exists over the
ArkLaMiss. Anomalously cool 850mb temperatures and drier air (PW`s
less than half an inch) are filtering in, which is less than the 10th
percentile for both parameters, per the NAEFS/GFS ensembles. Highs
may only top out in the upper 60s in the north to low 70s in the
south. Due to the drier air aloft, dewpoints will mix out this
afternoon into the low to mid 30s. This will lead to very dry
humidity values in addition to gusty winds approaching 15-20mph or so.
Increased fire weather danger today is possible. HWO/graphics look on
track. /DC/


12Z TAF discussion.
Early morning low stratus is scattering out over east-northeast TAF
sites, near JAN, MEI and GTR. VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period after 16Z. N/NNW winds will be gusty through the daytime
hours, with gusts to around 20 kt at times. Gusts will subside by
sunset this evening. /DL/DC/


.FIRE WEATHER...Though a few localized areas received somewhat
substantial rainfall accumulation yesterday, many more areas received
hardly enough to wet the ground. Consequently, fuels remain dry
across the vast majority of the area. RHs are expected to bottom out
around 30% today with wind gusts above 20 mph at times, leading to
increased fire danger in many areas. While less wind is anticipated
on Saturday and Sunday, RHs are expected to fall farther into the
20-30% range, and thus fire danger will persist. Based on these
meteorological factors and collaboration with MFC yesterday, we will
maintain the currently advertised fire weather threat in our
HWO/graphics but extend it into Sunday. /DL/15/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Today and tonight...A cooler and drier airmass will continue to
advect into the area in the wake of yesterday`s front. Lingering
clouds over south and east MS early this morning will quickly depart
as low level flow becomes more anticyclonic and slightly diffluent. A
respectable surface pressure gradient will persist into the
afternoon, keeping northerly winds on the breezy to gusty side
through much of the day. In spite of nearly full sunshine, lower
heights and continued CAA will cause temps to struggle to reach the
70 degree mark over the northern half of the area. By tonight, the
pressure gradient is expected to relax enough for winds to go
calm/very light. This should set the stage for a textbook radiational
cooling situation. Went on the cooler side of guidance toward bias-
corrected MOS forecast lows. Some of the typically cooler pockets in
the CWA, such as Winona/Eupora area and TVR, could slip into the
upper 30s by tomorrow morning. /DL/

Saturday through Thursday night...Looks like a pretty quiet extended
forecast for the ArkLaMiss. Upper troughing will give way to upper
ridging on Saturday along with surface high pressure ridging building
in. The main concern for Saturday and Sunday will be the dry air and
fire weather concerns. Please see fire weather discussion for further
details. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the region on
Sunday with warmer temperatures around 80 degrees Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will also be warmer Sunday night with lows ranging from
the mid 40s in the east to around 50 in the west.

Little will change Monday through Wednesday as upper and surface
ridging continue to prevail. Highs each day will climb into the low
80s, with lows in the 50s. Both the GFS/ECMWF indicate that the
ridge may break down a bit on Thursday and allow a weak boundary to
drop into the area, but expect it to be dry. with the above normal
temps continuing. /15/

Jackson       70  42  72  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Meridian      72  41  72  38  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  39  72  40  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  43  73  39  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Natchez       70  44  71  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Greenville    68  43  71  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     69  40  70  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0




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