Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271745 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

18Z aviation discussion


.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail across the region with some high
clouds across the area. Some isolated showers and a few storms are
possible after 18Z across the southeast near KHBG for this afternoon
into early evening. Winds will be out of the north-northwest at 5-10
knots for today and gradually shifting to the west-northwest and
lighter tonight. /DC/


.DISCUSSION... /issued 1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

Overall not much going changes to the going forecast. Only adjusted
hourly temperatures and dewpoints but rest of the forecast looks
good. /DC/


The cold front is currently located in southeast Mississippi and the
previously advertised dry air is finally making its way through the
ArkLaMiss. Dewpoints have already fallen into the low 50s in the
north and low level boundary layer temperatures are gradually
falling. Expect a much cooler afternoon with highs much closer to
normal, only in the mid to upper 80s. Upper air analysis shows the
large longwave trough and occluded surface low is helping to drive
the front through the area. The best push of the front is to the
north and so expect northerly winds and a slow gradual dropoff in
dewpoints into the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon in the Hwy 82
corridor with low relative humidities. The best surge of anomalous dry
air, with PW`s less than three quarters of an inch, looks to move in
tomorrow. Due to a decent pressure gradient around today, there is
some small fire weather concerns in the north but not enough to
introduce into the HWO. POPS look good as some showers and an
isolated storm or so can`t be ruled out in the southeast this
afternoon. Rest of the update is out. /DC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

Today through Wednesday Night...

Latest satellite imagery showed a large upper trough extending from
the Upper Mississippi Valley region to the MidSouth. The associated
cold front was over the southeast portion of MS where dewpoints were
in the lower 70s. Models and some Hi-Res models shows that some
isolated thunderstorms may develop across the southeast where pwats
will be around 1.7 inches. The front will sweep out of the state for
today. Expect the activity to quickly end by sunset across the
southeast as drier air overtakes that area. The best lift and
dynamics will continue to be well north of the region. Temperatures
will be on the cooler side with highs in lower to upper 80s. The
drier air will lag behind the front and will finally cross the
southeast portion of the CWA this evening as low rain chances
quickly diminish around sunset. Expecting a cool night for tonight
as we get our first taste of fall. This will occur as the upper
trough expands southward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.  With
40s and 50s dewpoints along with light winds lows will range from
the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Low temps will range up to 10
degrees below normal for this time of year. As we go into Wednesday
expect dry weather through Wednesday night. With the dry air in
place highs will be a little warmer with readings in the middle to
upper 80s. Lows for Wednesday night will be in the lower to upper

Thursday through Monday....

The long awaited return of Autumn like weather will come to an end
soon. Long term models generally agree on the solution of an upper
level closed low becoming centered near the Ohio Valley region by
Thursday. At the surface, an associated reinforcing cold front will move
through the region early Thursday. Cooler, less humid air will exist
behind this dry frontal passage. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday
will struggle to reach 80 degrees. If this holds true for Thursday,
it will be the first time since May 18th that KJAN failed to reach
the 80 degree mark, a 134 day streak. Decided to go slightly below
guidance for low temperatures on Friday and Saturday morning to
account for optimal radiational cooling conditions. Expect lows in
the low to mid 50`s each day. The upper low will slowly meander
throughout the Northeastern U.S. late in the work week before lifting
northeast towards New England and becoming less organized late in the
weekend. The Euro keeps the upper low intact and and progresses it
northward a bit slower than the GFS. Models begin to diverge early
next week with the Euro building an upper ridge over the region
while the GFS keeps flow more zonal. The Euro`s solution would result
in a return of well above average temperatures by Tuesday. The
ArkLaMiss will remain dry through the long term./JPM3/


Jackson       57  85  59  79 /   5   3   2   1
Meridian      55  86  57  80 /   9   4   3   1
Vicksburg     53  87  58  80 /   4   3   2   1
Hattiesburg   62  86  61  83 /  14   5   2   1
Natchez       58  85  59  79 /   6   2   2   1
Greenville    54  85  57  77 /   2   2   3   1
Greenwood     52  85  55  77 /   3   2   3   1


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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