Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 191459 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...WV IMAGERY SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING...BUT AREA SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LOCAL WRF ARE BOTH
INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. FORECAST CELLS HAVE A
MORE WESTERLY MOVEMENT INDICATING THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. UPPED
POPS IN THE GRIDS TO CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE SPREADING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FURTHER NORTH AND WEST./26/


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES ARE IMPROVING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS (MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20) STRAY
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT
AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY OUR REGION WILL SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE SOME AS
WE TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME TO ONE OF S/WV RIDGING. THIS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WE SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SERVER TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR. WHAT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A PRECIP FREE DAY TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISO SHOWERS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL...THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND
DRYING ALOFT LOOK TO LIMIT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS AND
ISO SHRA WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AND BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND REALLY LIMIT
CLOUDS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABV NORMS
FOR MID SEP. LOOK FOR HIGHS 88-92 TODAY AND SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
TAD LOWER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR MORE READINGS TO REACH THE MID
60S. /CME/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

OVERALL, THE LONG TERM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THEN A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A SOUTH-BOUND COOL FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTH AS STRONGER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES STRONGER NW FLOW TOWARDS THE REGION. A
MOISTURE RIBBON LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 1.5" SUNDAY AFTN FOR THE
NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO BE WEAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY DRY LOW LEVELS PER INVERTED
V BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FEEL A BAND OF SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT WHAT
RAIN COVERAGE THERE IS, SHOULD BE CONFINED TOWARDS TN/MS LINE AND
WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  64 /  17   5   2   3
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  62 /  18   6   1   3
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  64 /  17   4   2   3
HATTIESBURG   92  68  91  65 /  26   6   3   2
NATCHEZ       89  67  90  66 /  23   5   5   3
GREENVILLE    90  67  91  66 /  12   2   4   6
GREENWOOD     90  66  91  65 /  15   3   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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