Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night)...A relatively unsettled
weather pattern will continue into the weekend as subtle mid/upper
troughing remains over the region in the presence of an anomalously
moist airmass. The upper level pattern will remain mostly static
through tomorrow, but deep layer moisture will slightly and
gradually decrease.

Confidence is somewhat lower in how convection will evolve today as
there is lesser model consensus. However, there is good concordance
on the deeper pool of moisture being situated from Central MS back
across NE/Central LA today. Weak remnant MCVs moving across the area
from yesterday`s activity could help serve as a trigger. Based on
these factors, generally higher PoPs for the day were focused along
the I-20 corridor. We could again see clouds/precip serve as a
limiting factor with today`s high temps, but given less certainty
on timing/location, did not stray as far from guidance consensus
temps. Tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today, with scattered storms
redeveloping during the day. There are some hints activity may be a
bit more diurnal in nature heading through the weekend into early
next week. As a result, high temps will begin to climb again across
much of the area. /DL/

Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...Unsettled weather will continue
through the long term. An upper trough will remain north of the area
through the first half of the period. This, combined with plentiful
moisture(as characterized by 2-2.2 inch PW values), will bring
scattered storm chances to the region for much of the period. By
Monday, the upper trough will lift off to the northeast and the
region will continue to be located within a weakness in ridging.
Upper ridging will build in a little from the west which will allow
heights to rise some but the ArkLaMiss will remain on the eastern
side of this ridge. Rain/storm chances will remain in the forecast
for the region but the better rain chances may actually exist in the

Temperatures will be roughly around or a few degrees above normal
through the period. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat
indices will be in the 100 to 105 range through much of the period,
resulting in some elevated heat stress issues. Some locations in the
western part of the CWA, closer to the impacts from the ridge, may
actually meet heat advisory thresholds later in the week. This will
be something to monitor. /28/


.AVIATION...This morning, a deck of LIFR/IFR stratus will impact
many sites along and north of I-20, with areas of fog developing
across portions of South MS and Central LA. Scattered SHRA with some
TSRA are expected to develop again over the area, as early as this
morning, then spread eastward through the day. Outside of any impacts
from the rain, categorical improvements will occur through the
morning, with VFR conditions expected in most areas by midday. /DL/


Jackson       89  75  93  74 /  49  20  40  17
Meridian      90  75  94  75 /  43  20  43  20
Vicksburg     91  75  93  75 /  47  18  43  15
Hattiesburg   92  75  93  74 /  35  21  41  16
Natchez       90  74  93  73 /  29  18  45  14
Greenville    90  75  93  74 /  38  27  41  26
Greenwood     89  74  93  73 /  37  26  41  25


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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