Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 231441 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PRECIPITATION
(KJAN 12Z PWAT 0.31 IN). WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /19/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING..WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE
40S.  THEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
70S...WHILE LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. DRY NW FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/19/26





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