Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290249
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
849 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. A WEAK GRADIENT WAS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. CURRENT VALUES ARE NEAR
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH WINDS FORECAST TO STAY UP AND EVEN
INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLOUDINESS INCREASING...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM ANY WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 20-25 KT ON SATURDAY. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING S/SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40
KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT RIGHT NOW
APPEARS AS THOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MIXING IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD DOWN GUST POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...AND KEEP
WINDS BLO ANY NEED FOR MENTION IN HWO. GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BEGIN TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO RATHER PERSISTENT STRATO/CU IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH SAT WHILE
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT AND MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

IN SPITE OF THESE CLOUDS...ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST GULF AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...AND UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT AS INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING HELD UP IN WEST...WHILE EAST SHOULD SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WITH MORE DECOUPLING AND A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
MORE UNIFORM LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND KEEP
LOWS IN THE 50S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...
EARLY WEEK FOCUS WILL BE ON 1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH
CENTRAL CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TOWARD
REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SHOW
FRONT ARRIVING OVER UPPER DELTA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THEN
OOZING SE ACROSS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS AREA MONDAY WITH FRONT IN AREA...WITH
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S IN FAR NW TO 70S IN SE LATE MON. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS TEMPS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS. EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR SHRA MON INTO MON
EVENING FROM THE NW DUE TO WARM/MOIST AIR BEING FORCED ISENTROPICALLY
OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF FORCING
AND JET POSITIONS INDICATE LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL
MOTION BEYOND THIS...SO FOR NOW GUIDANCE POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PCT
RANGE APPEAR REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MIDWEEK MODELS AGREE ON PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WITH
MAIN JET DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.                                        /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  67  55  72 /   0   4   6   9
MERIDIAN      35  67  52  72 /   0   2   6   8
VICKSBURG     44  70  56  73 /   0   5   6  10
HATTIESBURG   40  69  54  74 /   0   2   5   7
NATCHEZ       47  70  57  73 /   0   3   6  10
GREENVILLE    43  68  57  71 /   0   8   7  13
GREENWOOD     42  65  56  71 /   0   7   7  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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