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000
FXUS64 KJAN 220153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS
TO STEADILY PUSH E/SE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE
SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. DRIVING THIS LINE IS A COMPACT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN OK AND A LARGE COMPOSITE COLD
POOL (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) WHICH HAS CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE
OVER NE TX/NW LA/SW AR. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME BETTER BALANCED WITH THE CONVECTION AND THIS
SHOULD PROVE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE IT MAY RUN OUT OF STEAM. INSTABILITY IS NOT
GREAT (1500 J/KG MLCAPE)...BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS LOOK TO SUPPORT SVR
STORMS THIS EVENING AND A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE LINE COULD BE WITHIN THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 130 AM...THEN DIMINISHING EAST OF THAT
AFTER 1-2 AM.

AS FOR HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. THE EARLIER THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
HAS DECREASED DUE TO 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED TO THE NE AND THE
LINEAR COMPLEX PROPAGATING TO THE E/SE. A SVR TS WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...TIMING THE RESTRICTIONS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE
FOCUS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-14Z WED
MORNING. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WED
DUE TO WHAT IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE HAPPEN FROM THE STORM COMPLEX
TONIGHT...THUS WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  61  90 /  79  48   9   6
MERIDIAN      65  85  60  90 /  41  43  22   5
VICKSBURG     70  86  59  89 / 100  43   5   5
HATTIESBURG   68  87  67  90 /  31  40  17  10
NATCHEZ       70  86  64  88 /  95  49  10  15
GREENVILLE    68  85  61  88 / 100  34   3   3
GREENWOOD     69  84  58  87 / 100  43   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/