Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 120542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1142 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
A cold front has entered the area and will make its way through
the region early this morning. A northwesterly wind shift behind
the front is to be expected. Some clouds could affect GWO and GTR
but do not anticipate them to reduce ceilings to below VFR
thresholds. As winds start to mix out around 12Z to 15Z, sustained
wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts will be
possible through 18Z to 20Z at all sites. Wind speeds will relax
towards late tomorrow afternoon. /10/


No significant changes from the previous forecast philosophy.
Surface observations and infrared satellite imagery indicate a
cold front dropping south toward the ArkLaMiss extending from a
low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley region.
Atmospheric moisture remains limited and only a slight increase in
clouds is expected as the front passes through our region
overnight. An increase in winds is expected as high pressure
builds in behind the front, leading to occasionally gusty
conditions in some northern and western locations late tonight.
Otherwise, expect mostly clear conditions with lows generally in
the mid to upper 30s for most central and northern areas, to
around 40 further south. /TH/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Tuesday:

A surface cold front will begin to approach the ArkLaMiss tonight
from the NW. The only noticeable impacts associated with the
front will be a wind shift and a few high clouds. Lows tonight
will range from the mid to upper 30s. Colder air will advect into
region behind the front, resulting in much cooler temperatures for
tomorrow. After experiencing highs today which were 10-12 degrees
above average, highs tomorrow will be about 5 degrees below where
they should be with a moderate north winds making it feel a bit
cooler. There will be enough post frontal moisture to limit the
threat of fire weather that the area has seen over the last few
days. /JPM3/

Tuesday night through Sunday:

A rather amplified, ridge in the west and trough in the east
pattern will continue over the CONUS until late Friday. This
will maintain northwest flow aloft across our region and help
keep a dry airmass in place. In the wake of Tuesday`s dry cold
front PWATs wl be knocked below a quarter of an inch. Under clear
skies and a near calm wind Tuesday night, radiational cooling
will help temperatures bottom out below freezing at most
locations. Wednesday light return flow will develop head of a
northern stream shortwave trough dropping over the mid Mississippi
River Valley. This shortwave will support a weak surface low that
will drop another dry cold front across our CWA. Models agree the
dry cold front will drop across the CWA Thursday. Another
northern stream shortwave will swing farther south and across our
CWA Thursday night into Friday. This will help reinforce the cool
dry airmass over our region and lead to colder than normal
temperatures Thursday night through Saturday morning. In the wake
of Friday`s shortwave, our winds aloft will back to the southwest
while return flow strengthens over our region. PWATS will surge
back above one inch areawide along with surface dew points in the
50s by Sunday morning. The ECMWF is still faster and drier than
the GFS with the next front that will move across our CWA Sunday.
Ensembles and the Canadian support higher qpf along the cold front
so wl not trim pops or qpf this package. Our next best chance for
rain is expected Sunday across our area with the cold front. /22/


Jackson       38  53  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      38  53  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     39  55  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   39  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       39  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    40  52  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     36  51  28  57 /   0   0   0   0





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