Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 291551 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 50S THIS MORNING WITH
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 SEEING SUNNY SKIES. CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT DROPPING TOWARD
THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS AND THE UPPER 60S IN THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR HOURLY TRENDS. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 AT MID-MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTS OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATS IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT ALL CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AT 3 TO 6 KFT IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERNLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK TO
MOST SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR./BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UA PATTERN THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANT
NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW.

PRESENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS
PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOW LAYER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP. EXITING REMNANT CLOUD COVER OVER E MS FROM YESTERDAY`S
SYSTEM HAS NOW STALLED WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 290-295K THETA
LAYER HAS DEVELOPED MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL ALLOW THIS LAYER TO SUBSIDE.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMTH OVER THE SW PORTIONS TODAY WILL ALLOW
CAPES TO JUMP UP NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG
INHIBITION WILL EXIST AS INVERSION FROM 650-830 MB EFFECTIVELY PUTS
A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THERE MOVE
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. TIME
CONSTRAINED MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO FETCH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO ARRIVE AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTH. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING 300-600 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND 7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WITH THE
FRONTAL FORCING EXPECT THUNDER WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.

WHILE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK MONDAY
MORNING...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
ORIENTATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HEATING WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT AT
THUNDER TO THE SOUTH.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOKS TO INCREASE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BACK FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT. FLOW INITIALLY LOOKS WEAK...BUT INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH
ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY WASH-OUT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE REGION.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...IN ADDITION TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
RESULTING IN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM
AND 27-29C VERTICAL TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HERE THERE
LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS... IN ADDITION
TO BETTER FORCING. AS A RESULT...A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

A SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME.  AGAIN...THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS.  CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL RESIDING AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHIFT THROUGH
THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AS ACTIVITY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...A
COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  CURRENTLY...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY IS FORECAST FOR EASTER. /19/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  59  74  56 /   3  24  34  12
MERIDIAN      70  57  75  55 /   1  19  39  13
VICKSBURG     77  59  73  56 /   2  28  35  12
HATTIESBURG   74  60  81  58 /   2  10  20  12
NATCHEZ       78  59  76  59 /   2   7  19  12
GREENVILLE    73  57  68  55 /   3  70  35  23
GREENWOOD     73  57  71  55 /   2  68  38  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB/26/19



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