Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 031547 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1047 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

OVERALL...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  WHILE I`VE UPDATED MOST
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...IT`LL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE OVERALL SCOPE OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN TO SCATTERED
DURING THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THANKS TO VARYING
CEILING HEIGHTS...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT SITES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AROUND 8 KNOTS...AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM MCCOMB TO
MERIDIAN. SHOWERS AND OF A THUNDERSTORM FIRED ON THE BOUNDARY...BUT
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR. WAS INITIALLY ON
THE FENCE ABOUT MAINTAINING THUNDER THROUGH THE TODAY...MAINLY FOR
THE SMALL AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER FOR TODAY...BUT WILL UPDATE AND ADD ISOLATED WORDING. WENT
WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POPS TO CATCH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT THE LOWER POPS FOR
NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ONE OR TWO MORE BOUNDARIES AND A SHORT WAVE BEFORE
LATE WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THEM DO MUCH. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE LAST BIT
OF RAIN FOR A WHILE. MOS VALUES WERE GOOD...SO WENT WITH THEM.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. A
MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT IN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US...WHILE AN MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD
MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE
AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND
PUSH INTO THE MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA FOR THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK.
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WILL BE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S BEFORE WARMING INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TO
THE WEST LIFTS UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN UPPER TROUGH AS
A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAINS CHANCES DURING THE WORK WEEK./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  52  76  49 /  10   7  10   4
MERIDIAN      76  49  75  48 /  13   8   8   6
VICKSBURG     76  51  77  51 /   6   6   9   3
HATTIESBURG   77  53  79  53 /  17   7   5   1
NATCHEZ       74  52  76  51 /   8   6   2   0
GREENVILLE    73  51  76  50 /   6   5  12   3
GREENWOOD     74  49  74  48 /   6   6  14   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19



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