Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 171147
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
647 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight:

Continued cooler than normal and dry. The 00Z Tue JAN sounding
had a PWAT of 0.30in and dew points were running in the mid to
upper 40s. This cool dry airmass over our CWA will change very
little through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a
1027mb high centered over the Ohio River Valley that will shift
east to the mid Atlantic Seaboard by sunrise Wednesday. This will
maintain a light northeast to east wind across our region and
limit moisture return. Under a light wind and full insolation
today, temperatures will top out several degrees warmer than
yesterday but still a couple degrees cooler than normal. Most
sites will reach the mid 70s. Under clear skies and a near calm
wind tonight, strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass will
lead to morning lows cooler than normal again. Lows will range
from the lower 40s east to the upper 40s south and west. Normal
lows run in the lower 50s. /22/

Wednesday through Monday:

There is still some uncertainty regarding the forecast for next
weekend, but overall confidence is increasing through the extended
portion of the forecast. Continued quiet and generally warm
weather through the middle to end of this week will be driven a
building shortwave ridge over the Gulf Coast region. But then our
attention quickly turns to an upper-level shortwave trough moving
onshore the West Coast on Friday and over the central CONUS over
the weekend. The latest round of operational guidance has finally
come into pretty decent agreement regarding the timing and depth
of the trough and related surface features.

A sharp north-south oriented cold front is expected to work its
way through the ArkLaMiss region sometime between late Saturday
night and Sunday night, driven by a strong northern stream jet.
Return southerly flow ahead of the cold front`s arrival will bring
a northward surge of moisture, and PWAT values could be near 1.75
inches along and ahead of the front. Therefore expect
thunderstorms with possibly heavy rainfall as the front sweeps
through the region. Currently do not expect significantly colder
air behind the front as bulk of the cooler air looks to remain
north of our region, and in fact shortwave ridging resumes in the
immediate wake of the front. Indications are for a deeper trough
to develop over the Upper Midwest early next week and push a
reinforcing cold front into our forecast area just beyond the
7-day forecast. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      74  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     76  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   76  46  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       74  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    75  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     75  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

06/22


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