Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 230233 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Updated for evening discussion.


TD Cindy was noted spinning over southwest Arkansas and is
expected to track northeast through the night. The pressure
gradient around Cindy was still resulting in gusty southeast to
south winds across the CWA. These winds will continue through the
night with the strongest winds still expected across the northwest
most zones. Water vapor imagery has continued to show dry slotting
over the eastern half of our CWA with the 18Z and 00Z JAN sounding
showing a PWAT less than 1.7inches. This has limited convection
across our area this afternoon and into this evening. Local radars
still showed banded pcpn across the region. Considering the low
level shear a brief tornado will remain possible in the bands that
develop the remainder of the night but chances are low and the
current Tornado Watch will be allowed to expire with no additional
watches anticipated. The potential for locally heavy rain will
exist within the banded pcpn as well so wl continue the Flash
Flood Watch that is in effect. /22/

Prior discussion below:

This Evening through Friday: Rain bands associated with Tropical
Depression Cindy continue to pivot across our forecast area this
afternoon, bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A
Slight Risk for severe weather continues across the entire area
into early tonight due to the threat for damaging wind gusts as
well as brief spin-up tornadoes. Moderate amounts of instability
and strong low-level wind shear have resulted in decent spin even
in deeper rain showers without lightning. Despite a "dry slot"
wrapping around Cindy and across the central portions of our area,
adequate moisture has overspread even these areas (PWAT > 1.9
inches per RAP analysis) to make showers and storms into efficient
rain makers. Therefore we will continue the Flash Flood Watch
into tomorrow and keep a mention of Limited to Elevated flooding
threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The heaviest rain
overnight tonight will likely be confined to northeast Louisiana,
far southeast Arkansas, and northwest/north-central Mississippi
near the core of the Tropical Depression. Given the recent rounds
of rainfall, flash flooding as well as creek and river flooding
will be possible wherever heavy rain falls on wet ground. Daytime
heating tomorrow could also lead to some marginally severe
thunderstorms developing over mainly the Golden Triangle and
surrounding areas as Cindy`s remnants are lifted northeastward out
of our region. /NF/

Friday night through Thursday. The remnants of Cindy will continue
to impact the area through the weekend. Cindy was not moving very
quickly to the north, but models continue to show the system into
Kentucky by Friday afternoon. However, with the area still to the
east, the risk for severe storms will continue into Friday
evening. Also, the area was in a dry slot and saw a good amount of
sun this afternoon. Low level wind shear and plenty of moisture
helped to support thunderstorm development. By Friday evening, the
trough axis will be lagging behind and low level winds will not be
that bad, so the potential for strong storms and maybe some severe
seemed ok for the northeastern portions of the rain. Trees were
falling across the region in sub-severe winds due to saturated
ground. Will likely see more of the same in heavily wooded areas
in the northeast sections of the CWA. Widespread heavy rainfall
has not occurred with this system, but waves of downpours was
causing flooding, so will maintain the flash flood watch through
the Friday evening. Wanted to monitor activity through tonight
before extending the watch into Saturday. Models show the area of
greatest rainfall being over the Delta before shifting south and
east in the evening. The lagging trough axis associated with Cindy
will be absorbed by an approaching cold front and be the focus
for shower and thunderstorm activity for much of Saturday.
Rainfall amounts were not great, but another inch of rain on top
of what is out there will aggravate flooding. High pressure moves
in quickly on Sunday and helps push convection to the coast.
Another front sweeps across the area with little impact before a
1023 high settles over the mid-south and keeps the area dry from
Tuesday into Thursday. As the ridge shifts east, there may be some
activity skirting around the ridge that moves into the southwest.
going into the weekend.

Temperatures will be mild, slightly below normal following the
cold front. A few days of sun will bring some much needed drying
to the region.


00Z TAF discussion:
Rainbands from Cindy are still passing across the area this
evening...but dry slotting has allowed clouds across some
terminals to scatter out this evening. VFR will be common as we
start the 00Z TAF...but as rainbands approach terminals we may
have to adjust with amendments for an hour or so TS and vis
conditions. MVFR cigs should return later tonight...with VCSH
remaining common. Winds will remain generally 10 to 20 kts across
the area...and may increase slightly as Cindy makes her progress
to the northeast.



Jackson       76  86  73  83 /  41  79  63  63
Meridian      75  86  73  84 /  48  69  62  64
Vicksburg     76  85  74  83 /  61  84  61  59
Hattiesburg   75  88  74  87 /  53  66  34  68
Natchez       76  85  73  82 /  59  77  63  61
Greenville    75  84  72  82 /  86  92  64  41
Greenwood     75  82  71  82 /  50  89  66  42


MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ074-075.



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