Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 311545 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH IT BUT RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO OUR DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
0.65 INCH PW VALUE ON THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT .
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WILL BE WITH WINDS. LOOK
FOR N WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE N HALF WITH PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
19-02Z FOR ALL AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MORE IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
FAR N...OVERALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 3.0 TO 4.0 KFT ON ANY
CEILINGS. /CME/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND TURNING COLDER THAN NORMAL. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION
WERE NOTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN OUR
CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRING OUR CWA A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR THAT
WILL LEAD TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...A >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOPS OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BUT IT APPEARS THE WIND WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND PROVIDE MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT LOWER BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FOR A PORTION OF
OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED
TONIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL RESULT AND ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND MORE OF OUR CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THERE SOLUTIONS BY MIDWEEK AS THEY BOTH CUT OFF A
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER LOW
STATIONARY OVER TEXAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE UPPER
LOWS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  33  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      72  32  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     71  32  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   73  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  33  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  32  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     65  30  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>033-036>039-044>046-051-052.

LA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/CME/15/22





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