Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 040826
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING...

.NEAR TERM... A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND SUBSIDENCE WANES AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ENE TO NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING. PREVAILING FLOW REMAINS SWLY BUT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.
EXPECT E COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND ACROSS NE FL
COASTAL COUNTIES. W COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE NEWD AND MERGE WITH E
COAST LATER IN THE DAY. BEST CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE NEAR I-95 N OF
JAX...AND BETWEEN I-95 AND HWY 301 IN NE FL. PWATS OF ABOUT 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES ARE FCST AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SBCAPE OF UP TO 2400-2800 J/KG. POPS ARE PLACED AT 30-40 PERCENT
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 50-60 PERCENT IN AFOREMENTIONED
MERGER OF BOUNDARIES IN NE FL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NE
FL...AND MID 90S IN SE GA WHERE GREATER INSOLATION IS TO BE
REALIZED. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH TO
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER.
FOR TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRECIP FREE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA
BREEZES BY THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION
SEEMS LIKELY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 301 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNSET. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEAN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER ACTIVITY. HIGHS INLAND
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. CONVECTION WILL THEN
WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LINGERING REGION-WIDE. EXPECT RAIN-COOLED LOWS OF 70-75.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ON MON...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS. AN
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO NEAR 90
INLAND...WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY AGAIN LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
MON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN SHOULD FALL
TO THE 70-75 RANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FILL BEGINNING ON
TUES...AND WILL BECOME REPLACED BY DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT THAT
WILL BE EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND
LINGERING COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CREATE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON TUES OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 301 AS
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR 90 INLAND ON TUES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO A DIURNAL PATTERN AS TROUGHING ALOFT
ERODES...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET INLAND ON TUES.

ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK...WITH ITS
AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS OUR REGION. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZES THAT WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS INLAND. RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE
LOW/MID 90S INLAND...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. ANTICIPATE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT GNV SO OPTED TO INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS BY 17Z AND A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 17Z-19Z WITH SLIGHTLY LATER TIME FRAME AT VQQ. FOR REST OF
TAFS VICINITY TSTORMS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
CONDS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IN STORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE NE ABOUT
15 KT. CHANCE OF STORMS DECREASES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SFC OBS AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OBSERVED AT 41008. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING TODAY. SWLY WINDS WILL TURN S TO SE TODAY AND
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT TO NEAR 15 KT. OTHERWISE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...SFC RIDGE REMAINS S OF THE AREA AND PREVAILING SWLY TO SLY
FLOW EXPECTED. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. MAIN THREATS FOR BOATERS
WILL BE TSTORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE NE NEAR 15 KT TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MARGINAL LOW RISK TODAY WITH SURF NEAR 2 TO LOCALLY 3
FT. WILL MONITOR OBS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE. MARGINAL LOW RISK
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  92  71 /  30  30  60  40
SSI  90  76  85  76 /  20  40  50  50
JAX  93  74  90  72 /  40  30  60  50
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  40  30  50  40
GNV  93  71  91  72 /  60  30  60  30
OCF  93  73  91  72 /  50  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON/


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