Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 311225
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
825 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...
RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING OFFSHORE...AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG
BEND REGION. AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FL. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT INITIAL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AS A LOBE OF LIFT ENTERS THE AREA...AND A BIT LATER
FURTHER NORTH IN THE DRIER AIR. WILL RETAIN NUMEROUS POPS LATE
THIS AFTN ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL INTO NE FL...AND WILL RETAIN HEAVY
RAIN WORDING/FLOOD WATCHES. FURTHER NORTH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SE
GA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL/NE FL...WITH AROUND 90 FOR MOST OF INTERIOR SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN IN SHWRS/TSTMS WITH
GNV HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE TODAY AS SWELLS DECREASE...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS OFFSHORE LIKELY IMPROVING THIS AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH LINGERING EAST SWELL. LOW
RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF BLACK
CREEK NEAR PENNEY FARMS...WITH THE RIVER FORECAST TO CREST IN
MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  91  74 /  20  20  40  20
SSI  89  75  86  76 /  40  30  50  20
JAX  89  73  89  75 /  60  30  60  20
SGJ  87  75  87  75 /  60  30  50  20
GNV  87  72  88  73 /  70  30  60  30
OCF  87  72  90  74 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET



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