Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
FROM PENSACOLA TO NEAR PERRY. THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED OR DRIFTED
SLIGHTLY NNEWD TODAY. A SMALL TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION REMAINS...ONE
OF THEM W OF GAINESVILLE THROUGH GILCHRIST COUNTY AND THE OTHER
FROM NRN ATKINSON TO JEFF DAVIS AND APPLING COUNTIES. THE FORMER
HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NE GULF WHILE LATTER IS DEVELOPED FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAS NOW WEAKENED RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE
AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM DIURNAL HEATING SO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OR LESS. DUE TO THE
LOW PRES FEATURE...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED FOR
AREAS W OF I-75 OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND IS SAME AREA WHERE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS CHANCE
IS HIGHEST OVER GILCHRIST COUNTY AND PERHAPS SRN SUWANNEE AND WRN
MARION COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY FOR TAFS EXCEPT PROBABLY
FOR SSI. OCNL MVFR CIG CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE
OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FOR GNV AREA AND MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUP IN TSRA 14Z-18Z. ADDITIONAL TEMPO MAY BE NEEDED AT
REST OF TAFS AS OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE ROUGH SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCEC IS CONTD FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SCA POSSIBLE THERE ON SUNDAY. SEAS NEAR 3 FT
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  50  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  85  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ENYEDI/WALKER



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