Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271852
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents at Beaches through the weekend...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Saturday/...

Rest of this afternoon...Easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean
around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph at times is allowing enough low
level moisture to trigger a few light showers/sprinkles with trace
amounts near the i-95 corridor at times...but still mainly dry
over inland areas as dry airmass still not able to support much in
the way of measurable precipitation.

Tonight...Steering flow will become a bit more northeasterly and
expect isolated showers to continue over the coastal waters with a
few sprinkles continuing to make it onshore. Further inland expect
skies to become mostly clear overnight with lows in the 60s while
lows closer to 70 degrees along the coast under partly cloudy
skies.

Saturday...Low pressure well offshore will track towards SC and
still expect minimal weather impacts on the local area except for
elevated surf and higher rip current risk. Meanwhile the local
steering flow will become northerly and expect east coast sea
breeze to have a little tougher time pushing inland and expect
widely scattered showers to develop on the sea breeze along the
coast during the morning hours...then press inland to just west of
the I-95 corridor by the afternoon with widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing as max temps reach in the mid/upper
80s along the coast and near 90 degrees inland. Severe weather is
not anticipated as atmosphere will still be trying to moisten.

.SHORT TERM...

Saturday night through Monday night...Potential tropical or
subtropical low pressure still progged by models to be near the
SC coast Saturday night. It will likely move inland and then to
the ne early next week. On this track most of area should have
little effects from this system. A fairly dry nw flow behind this
system will result in only isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be at or a few
degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Friday...Trailing surface trough along the se
coast in wake of low will aid diurnal convection along with
seabreezes. Rain chances will be near climo values as moisture
gradually increases. Temperatures will be at or slightly above
average levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still VFR CIGS at the TAF sites around 4000 feet with a few
sprinkles but not significant enough to add VCSH in the TAF sites
at this time. CIGS should scatter out around sunset this evening
with VFR skies overnight and no significant fog expected. The
onshore flow off the Atlantic Ocean should develop broken MVFR
CIGS around 3000 feet by mid morning along the Coastal TAF sites
and push inland and a bit more moisture should allow for widely
scattered showers and have placed VCSH in the TAF`s after 12z.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds around 15 knots with seas building into the 3-5 ft
range this evening but remaining below SCEC levels for now. Winds
becoming Northeast later tonight and possibly increasing to 15-20
knots with seas building into the 4-6 ft range at least on
saturday but all will depend on developing low pressure offshore
and eventual track it takes. Still think will be able to escape
any small craft advisories over the weekend being on the SW side
of this system then weaker pressure gradient returns for early
next week with winds around 10 knots...onshore during the day and
offshore at night with seas 2-4 ft.

RIP CURRENTS: Moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue
through the holiday weekend. Current breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  89  67  89 /   0  20  10  20
SSI  71  82  69  84 /  20  30  10  30
JAX  66  86  69  89 /  10  30  10  30
SGJ  71  84  69  86 /  10  30  10  20
GNV  64  91  67  91 /   0  20  20  30
OCF  65  91  68  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Zibura



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