Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 031615
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND
I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.UPDATE...
NOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ALOFT...A CUTOFF CYCLONE IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LAPS
ANALYSIS DEPICTS CAPE VALUES ALREADY RISING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
BLOSSOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPROACHING VORTICITY LOBE OVER
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. OTHERWISE...A
STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING THAT BLANKETED INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA IS
LIFTING...WITH LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS
PERSISTING OVER FLAGLER COUNTY.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY EXPANDING INTO THE JACKSONVILLE METRO
AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES WESTWARD
AND ENHANCES ACTIVITY. SUBSIDENCE AND MID- LEVEL DRY AIR MAY DELAY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL...BUT MERGING SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOWS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ENHANCE THE WET MICROBURST THREAT IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
RESIDE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA...AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
APPROACHES. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MERGING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY EXPAND CONVECTION BACK TOWARDS I-95
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE
MID 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRST IMPACT SSI AFTER
17Z...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT A HIGHER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AT JAX...VQQ...AND GNV...GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST 00Z AT GNV...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT VQQ AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WIND SURGE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BRING SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS UP TO NEAR 15
KNOTS...WITH SPEEDS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND
THEN MAY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  87  68 /  70  60  40  10
SSI  83  72  84  72 /  50  30  20  20
JAX  87  67  87  70 /  50  10  30  10
SGJ  85  70  85  73 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  89  67  90  69 /  60  30  30  10
OCF  89  68  91  70 /  50  40  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/SHASHY/WALSH



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