Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281921
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
321 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...High Risk of Rip Currents Early This Week...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Monday/...

Rest of this afternoon...Widely scattered showers and an isolated
storm will remain possible as first band of showers pushes well
inland and another batch across the SE GA waters pushes onshore in
the E/NE steering flow. Breezy winds will continue along the coast
around 15-20G25 mph with lesser winds inland, a few gusts to 30
mph possible in the stronger shower activity.

Tonight...Similar to last night as any evening shower activity
over the inland areas will fade while the onshore flow will
continue a threat of isolated showers along the coast through the
night with scattered showers/storms remaining offshore. Muggy
overnight lows in the 70s inland and near 80 along the coast.

Monday...Onshore flow will continue in the lower levels while weak
mid/upper level trof over the Wrn Atlc just offshore will rotate
inland over NE FL/SE GA and this will serve to increase coverage
of showers/isold storms as they move onshore during the morning
hours and push inland during the afternoon hours with scattered
pops area-wide and possible numerous pops along the NE FL coast
and offshore over the coastal waters. Similar breezy winds at
15-20mph along the coast while heavier shower activity may contain
gusts of 30-35 mph at times. Max temps will be a notch lower in
the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland.

.SHORT TERM...
Monday night...Scattered rain chances continue into Monday night
in areas near the Atlantic coast with persistent onshore flow.
Isolated activity will be possible along the Gulf coast and across
portions of north central Florida with deep layer moisture
continuing to push northward. This moist airmass and increasing
cloud cover will only allow low temps to drop to the mid/upper 70s
in these areas with inland southeast GA in the low/mid 70s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Rain chances increase on Tuesday as
moisture levels continue to increase bringing PWATS above 2 inches
across much of the area as low pressure associated with Invest 99L
moves over the central GOMEX. Showers and storms will move inland
from the east coast increasing in coverage throughout the day with
widespread coverage possible across northeast FL and mostly
scattered activity north of the interstate 10 corridor where
airmass will be slightly drier. Activity will wane Tuesday evening
with lingering showers expected along the Atlantic coast
overnight. Breezy onshore flow and increased cloud cover should
hold off max temps to the mid/upper 80s in coastal areas with
inland areas still seeing highs in the low 90s for Tuesday
afternoon. Lows temps continue to be slightly above normal in the
mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Sunday...There is still low confidence in
specifics on the track and intensity of the low pressure
associated with 99L for mid to late this week after it moves on
from the central GOMEX as run to run and model to model change is
still significant. There is some agreement on a developing mid
level trough over much of eastern US during the latter half of
this week which could help push 99L into the northeastern Gulf
Weds into Thurs and onshore in that vcnty...crossing into
northeast FL or southeast GA before passing back into the
Atlantic sometime on Friday. Strength of the low is uncertain with
little model agreement at this time so confidence in naming any
specific impacts for the local area is low. Have kept elevated
rain chances through late in the week with waves of showers and
storms each day through at least early Friday with highest rain
chances along and south of I-10. Forecast temps remain near climo
for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still generally VFR with BKN cigs in the 3000-4500 ft range at
times with VCSH still the best bet at the TAF sites. Could be an
isolated TSTM but will add this in to any TAF site in an update if
the current activity offshore pushes into the JAX metro TAF sites.
E/NE winds at 10-13G20 knots this afternoon will diminish around
sunset. Still have generalized VFR conds through the night with
very low chances of FOG at inland TAF sites and low chances of
showers at the coastal TAF sites and have left only VCSH at
KSSI/KSGJ through the night.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC conds will continue in the short term through Tuesday with
Easterly winds around 15 knots and seas 3-6 ft, then confidence
lowers with the possible development of tropical system and it
crossing the waters late in the week. So a shift to SE/S flow
during the middle of the week around 15 knots, then higher winds
and seas expected by Friday in the forecast to show a trend but
users are cautioned against using actual details in the marine
forecast out that far.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High Risk of rips continues with 3-5 ft
surf reported at the beaches this morning in the onshore flow and
will continue through early in the week with more long period swells
approaching the coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With 4 days to go, Jacksonville still ranked as driest summer on
record with 7.38", ahead of 8.71" set in 1954. Normal summer rainfall
is 19.80 inches.

This summer in Jacksonville has already set the record for the
most number of days in the middle 90s or higher (>=94F) at 52
days, surpassing the old record of 51 days set in 1981.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  92 /  10  40  10  30
SSI  78  88  78  86 /  20  30  30  40
JAX  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  30  50
SGJ  78  88  77  86 /  30  40  50  60
GNV  74  92  75  89 /  10  40  20  60
OCF  74  92  75  90 /  20  40  20  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Guillet/Hess/Walker



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