Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 170652
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS WOUND DOWN ACROSS MOST LAND AREAS...WITH
MOST ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
SHWRS IN SW FLOW ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE BIG BEND AREA.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MAKING IT
ONSHORE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN GULF MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS AND A MOIST BIAS OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...WILL
CAP POPS AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED FOR NE FL THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP FOR INLAND
SE GA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. WITH LAYER MOISTURE NOT VERY
PLENTIFUL ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA...WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS
THERE. FOR COASTAL SE GA AND ALL OF NE FL...WILL USE LOW/MID
END SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS RICH AS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION TNGT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS INLAND AREAS ENDING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS OFFSHORE MAY MAKE IT TO THE
COASTAL AREAS...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS THERE. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 70S
COAST.

THURSDAY...TROUGHING WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH
MID/UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AS THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH...AND WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEST NEAR
THE COAST...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL AS THE UPPER
LOW DESTABILIZES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DISSIPATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ AND MVFR FOR GNV/SSI. PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...LIFTING
TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. WITH AFTN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...WILL USE VCSH/VCTS FOR ALL PORTS. PATCHY MVFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 4-6 FOR THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL USE CAUTION
THERE...WITH 3-5 FEET NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MODEL
TRENDS ARE SHOWING A WEAKER ONSHORE EVENT...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF
3 TO 4 FEET AND SWELL PERIODS OF 12 TO 15 SECONDS. ELEVATED RISK
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  88  68 /  20  20  10  10
SSI  84  73  84  72 /  30  30  20  30
JAX  88  70  90  71 /  30  30  20  20
SGJ  86  72  87  73 /  30  30  20  20
GNV  88  68  91  69 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  88  70  91  70 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






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