Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
245 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Severe Weather Expected this weekend...

.NEAR TERM...Today and tonight...Early morning fog over ne Fl will be
patchy as mid/high clouds increase from the west and inhibit
widespread fog. Negatively tilted upper short wave is weakening as
it lifts ne over the se ridge this morning. Rain area to the west
will move into western zones of the area this morning as it
continues to weaken and then dissipated with main area of lift going
by to the north after 12z. Isolated showers may occur over interior
se Ga this afternoon but most areas will remain dry with warm
temperatures persisting. Increased sw winds today will push high
temperatures to near 80 degrees this afternoon. Another impulse
aloft will increase rain chances for the Suwannee Valley and
interior se Ga late tonight.

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Sunday Night...

Long-wave trof will amplify over the southern U.S. and send a series
of strong shortwaves in SW flow across the region. The first impulse
will mainly impact SE GA and inland portions of North Florida on
Saturday with increasing showers/storms throughout the day with
increased Severe Storm Threat Sat Night and SPC has placed much of
this region in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. This intense upper
level trof will continue into the SE U.S. on Sunday with even more
intense upper and lower level jets crossing the entire area through
the day with several rounds of severe weather possible. The main
threats will be damaging winds of 60-80 mph and large hail but
isolated tornadoes will be possible as well. The SW flow at the
surface will push highs well into the 70s/near 80 area-wide and this
will provide sufficient instability that will help to mix down the
strong winds aloft in storm activity. With complex nature of this
dynamic system, still too early to nail down exact timing of severe
weather. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected
by early Monday Morning and some training of activity will support
temporary/localized flooding but organized flash flooding not
expected with this event with recent fall/winter dryness this season.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

Monday...Upper level trof axis pushes through the region with
lingering widely scattered showers along with very windy Westerly
flow at 15-25G35 mph at times which will be close to wind advisory
criteria with much cooler max temps in the 60s.

Tue/Wed...High pressure builds through and south of the region with
dry conds and lows generally in the 40s, and highs in the 60s Tue
and then back into the lower/middle 70s on Wed.

Thu...Long range models sending next cold frontal passage into the
region with scattered showers possible, but temps still just above
normal prior to frontal passage during the day then cooling down
into the 40s Thu Night.


.AVIATION...Increasing cloudiness this morning should keep fog
development patchy and on the light side. VFR conditions expected
to prevail today with tempo MVFR conditions due to vsbys until
13z this morning.


.MARINE...Sw winds will gradually increase today through Saturday...
reaching Advisory levels Saturday night as a strong storm system
approaches from the west. Winds will shift to the west Sunday
evening as a cold front preceded by strong storms sweep east
across the waters. Strong offshore winds and rough seas will keep
Advisory conditions continuing into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Saturday.


AMG  79  62  74  62 /  20  60  80  70
SSI  73  62  71  62 /  10  30  70  60
JAX  79  63  78  65 /   0  20  60  50
SGJ  79  61  78  66 /  10  10  30  40
GNV  79  61  79  65 /   0  20  40  60
OCF  80  62  81  66 /   0  10  20  40




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