Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 111151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
651 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Will continue to see rounds of mid-high clouds this morning before
decks lower and thicken this afternoon in advance of the cold
front and associated rainfall set to arrive this evening. Have
seen temperatures drop into the upper teens in a few valleys
nearer the Cumberland Valley and far southeast Kentucky where
clearer skies have prevailed for a longer duration overnight.
Elsewhere, generally seeing temperatures in the mid 20s. Expect
everyone to warm into the mid-upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

A mix of altocumulus and cirrus continue to skirt across eastern
Kentucky this morning, stemming from embedded energy in quick zonal
flow encompassing much of the country. Will see a shortwave trough
migrate from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains this
morning, before arriving in the Great Lakes this afternoon and this
evening. This will gradually back flow aloft to the southwest
through the day as surface ridging pushes toward the mid-Atlantic
downstream of a surface low traveling into the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. This will make for some gusty winds this afternoon
and evening as the pressure gradient tightens. Additionally, a 35-
45 knot low level wind maximum will move overhead later this
afternoon, further increasing to 50-60 knots this evening. Would
therefore expect a few gusts well into the 30 mph range on Black
Mountain this evening. Temperatures will finally at least climb
into the mid-upper 40s this afternoon as a H85 thermal ridge
slides across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys ahead of the aforementioned
disturbance.

Low level moisture return will become suffice for rain to begin
across the Bluegrass region very late this afternoon, with the
remainder of eastern Kentucky seeing this rain during the evening
and overnight timeframe. Temperatures this evening and tonight will
hold mostly steady as elevated winds and subsequent mixing keep the
boundary layer coupled. Should actually see a brief period of
temperature rises this evening before warm air advection diminishes.

Rain will come to an end from west to east Monday afternoon with
total amounts generally ranging from 1/2 inch to 1 inch. Weak cold
air advection will once again limit a more normal diurnal
temperature swing. However, given the lack of a strong cold air
surge into eastern Kentucky along with stratus acting as an
insulator, temperatures should be able to very slowly creep toward
the mid-upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Based on the latest model data, the extended period is now looking a
bit quieter than before. The period is set to begin with a few rain
showers exiting our far eastern counties Monday evening. After that,
a ridge of high pressure is expected to settle over the region,
bringing dry and progressively colder weather to eastern Kentucky
through the end of the week. It appears that the next chance for
precipitation will begin sometime Friday afternoon, as a cold front
approaches from the west. The current forecast temperature and
moisture profiles for the end of the period suggest periods of rain,
rain snow mix, and snow will all be possible Friday and Friday
night. As warmer air filters into the area, we should see a period
of widespread rain showers on Saturday. The precipitation is then
expected to taper of Saturday night into early Sunday morning, as
the parent weather system begins to move off to our east. Some light
snow accumulations will be possible across the area Friday and
Friday night, but the amount of model uncertainty makes it hard to
pin down accurate snowfall amounts at this time.

Temperatures during the period should begin with slightly above
normal lows ranging from the lower 30s to the upper 30s Monday
night. Tuesdays highs should be close to normal, with max values
ranging from the lower 40s in the far north to around 50 in the
south. The rest of the week will feature progressively cooler
temperatures, with highs in the 30s expected on Wednesday and
Friday, and in the 20s and 30s on Wednesday. A warm up is then on
tap for Saturday, as warmer air at the surface begins to filter back
into eastern Kentucky on Saturday, as winds shift to the south and
southwest. Saturdays highs are forecast to top out in the upper 40s
and lower 50s. Low temperatures could be well above normal, with
minimum readings ranging from the mid 30s to around 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

VFR conditions will remain in place through this afternoon,
before lowering/thickening clouds arrive this evening complete
with rain. Southerly winds will increase to 5-12 knots or so by
late this morning through this afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 knots
at times. Low level wind shear will become an issue this evening
as a wind maximum aloft moves overhead, producing unidirectional
shear of near 40-45 knots at FL020. Following this, the arrival
of rain will likely lead to MVFR/IFR visibilities/ceilings developing
tonight into Monday morning as low level wind shear subsides and
surface winds diminish below 10 knots while veering to the
southwest.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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