Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL







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