Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201914
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
314 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

The forecast issue in the short term will be continued warmer
than normal temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure will
continue to exert its influence on the region through the weekend.
As a result, mostly clear skies and light winds will also be on
tap. Valley fog will likely form again late tonight, and will
persist through early Saturday morning. Based on the latest model
data and current conditions, the fog should be quite suppressed
and confined mostly to valley locations and near bodies of water.
The fog may locally dense at times, but only in very isolated
instances. High temperatures on Saturday should easily reach the
upper 70s for most locations. A few spots may even reach or
slightly exceed 80 degrees by Saturday afternoon. Tonights lows
should be close to normal in valleys, where min readings are
expected to fall into the low to mid 40s. The ridgetops will be a
bit warmer overnight, with minimum values expected to fall into
the upper 40s and lower 50s in those locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

A significant shift in the weather pattern across the United States
will occur next week as upper level ridging in the east is replaced
by a deep trough.

After a very warm day on Sunday with temperatures nearing record
highs, temperatures will begin to cool early next week and turn
sharply colder by Wednesday. For Sunday record highs are 81 at both
London and Jackson. The current forecast is for highs in the upper
70s Sunday in most areas, but with some downslope SSE winds would not
be surprised to see some lower 80s Sunday afternoon.

An initial cold front will be approaching western KY on Sunday, but
with an upper level low cutting off in the lower MS valley and
cyclogenesis in the lower MS valley the front will be slow to advance
east. While rain is still forecast for Monday it is possible the
onset of the rain may be slowed a bit. In any case showers will
overspread the area Monday and Monday night as low pressure moves
north along the cold front and the entire front shifts east. While
temperatures will begin cooling on Monday due to clouds and rain,
we`ll have to wait for the real surge of cold air until Tuesday into
Wednesday.

After the southern stream upper low moves northeast and a northern
stream upper low drops into the Great Lakes a secondary cold front
will move through the area and much colder temperatures will occur
for mid week. Overall maximum temperatures will cool each day from
Sunday to Wednesday, with the already mentioned upper 70s on Sunday,
lower 70s Monday, around 60 Tuesday, and then low to mid 50s
Wednesday. Cool surface high pressure building into the area
Wednesday night should result in widespread temperatures in the 30s
by Thursday morning, with frost possible. Temperatures will moderate
towards the end of the week, but looking further out it appears
another significant cold front may affect the area by the last
weekend in October.

With the already noted low pressure system expected to move up the
front from the lower MS valley, we should see widespread showers
from Monday afternoon into Tuesday, with total rainfall amounts from
1 to 2 inches. With the main surge of cold air coming midweek,
precipitation chances will continue into Wednesday. It is possible
there could be a few flakes of snow mixed with rain in the highest
terrain near the VA border early Wednesday morning. A small chance
of rain will return next Friday as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

Fog will affect valley locations and locations near bodies of
water late tonight through early tomorrow morning. The latest
conditions and model data both seem to indicate that any fog that
forms should be quite suppressed and confined to valley floors
across the area. Mostly clear skies and very light winds will be
on tap as well. VFR conditions should prevail at all five TAF
sites through the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR



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