Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250515 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad trough
of low pressure extended from eastern Montana south into western New
Mexico. This feature had transitioned east by midday and extended
from North Dakota south into central Nebraska per the latest WV
imagery. Upstream of this feature, a shortwave trough was located
over western portions of Washington state and Oregon. Downstream of
the central CONUS trough, high pressure was anchored over southern
Florida with a ridge extending from the southeastern states into the
upper Mississippi valley. At the surface, a stationary frontal
boundary extended from central Texas into the southern Ozarks and
Ohio valley. Across the Central and High Plains, a trough of low
pressure extended from the western Dakotas into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon,
skies had cleared east of Highway 83 and snow was coming to an end in
eastern portions of the forecast area. Readings as of 3 PM CST
ranged from 26 at O`Neill to 36 at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Solid model agreement in the short term that westerly downsloping
winds will push readings to near average for most locations on
Sunday. Guidance came in some 10 degrees warmer than what we we`re
previously forecasting, so will follow the lead of the guidance and
push those high temperatures up.  IF today is a good barometer for
tomorrows highs, then we may not be warm enough.  AS soon as the sun
broke out today, temperatures rapidly rose into the mid 30s, which
was ~5 degrees warmer than anticipated.  With that, mid to upper 40s
appear likely along and south of I80 Sunday afternoon with lower 40s
elsewhere.  Otherwise with clear skies overnight, a fresh snow pack
and lighter winds we expect a good radiational event. Lows will fall
into the teens for most locations, but will be interesting to see
how long those westerly winds stay up before uncoupling.  If they
remain breezy through much of the night then our forecast lows will
be too low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Mid range...Sunday night through Tuesday...Beginning Sunday night,
a shortwave trough of low pressure will drop south along the west
coast of the CONUS. This feature will cross southern California,
entering western Arizona by Tuesday evening. Downstream of this
feature, surface low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado
Monday. East of the developing low, a warm front will lift north
into southwestern and central Nebraska Monday. This will lead to
very warm temperatures across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. The
latest guidance, pushes highs Monday to near 60 for North Platte.
Given the thick snow cover across most of the forecast area, belief
here is that the guidance is overdoing temperatures and have opted
for lower 50s instead. On Monday night, the surface low will track
east into Kansas, while at the same time, high pressure over the
Dakotas, will force a cold front south into northern and central
Nebraska. This will result in cooler temps for Tuesday with highs
mainly in the 40s.

Long range...Tuesday night through Saturday...The upper level
shortwave trough, will cross Arizona Tuesday night, emerging onto
the southern plains on Wednesday. Downstream of this approaching
feature, low pressure will develop over sern Colorado. This feature,
will track along a stationary front, situated from sern Colorado
into west central Missouri Tuesday night. Precipitation will develop
downstream of the low and approaching disturbance Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With the front being anchored well to the south of the
forecast area, only limited chances for precipitation are expected
across the forecast area. ATTM, will confine pops to the eastern
forecast area Wednesday morning. This feature will lift east into
the mid Mississippi valley Wednesday night. Ridging aloft will build
into the central CONUS late next week, resulting in dry conditions
and warmer temperatures. After 40s, on Wednesday and Thursday, highs
will reach the 50s for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR is expected all areas overnight, Sunday and Sunday evening.

The upper level storm system swirling across the Cntl Rockies will
track south of Neb and spread scattered mid level clouds across
Wrn and Ncntl Neb Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Jacobs/Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC



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