Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250456 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upper level ridge has a firm grip on the area, with heights in the
process of slowly rising across the region. Nevertheless a weak
surface trough should be the focus for isolated thunderstorm
development later this afternoon across northwest Nebraska. With
weak winds aloft and warm mid level temperatures, storms should
weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and this is
indicated by most hi-res short term model guidance. Otherwise
south winds should stay up a bit tonight as a southerly low level
jet and tight surface pressure gradient reside across the area.
This will help keep lows warm, with many areas remaining near 70

A strong area of low pressure will track west to east across
central Canada Tuesday. This will drive a cold front south into
northwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop near the front near and after peak heating. The better
chance will be Tuesday night with more on that in the section
below. As far as temperatures, expect another hot day Tuesday.
Should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, as area will be
in favorable location for the heat just in front of the
approaching cold front. Will see highs nearing 100 degrees at most
locations, with areas around O`Neill a little cooler due to
higher humidity (but it will feel just as hot due to heat index).
Meanwhile, Valentine and the surrounding drier areas will
approach 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The models are pegging the disturbance across AZ this afternoon as
the catalyst for numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night.
This is probably too fast to lift the disturbance through the
Rockies. The ongoing convection across AZ should delay the arrival
of the disturbance until late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The forecast is generally for rain chances of 30 to 50 percent.
There will still be abundant moisture and a cold front for focus.
Rain chances and much cooler weather continue Wednesday.

The subtropical upper level ridge affecting the Cntl Plains will
migrate back into the Desert Southwest Thursday through Monday. A
deep upper level low will develop across the Ern U.S. and this will
draw cool Canadian air into the Upper midwest which backs into
Nebraska later this week and through the weekend. The forecast is
generally dry with near seasonable temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Isolated thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours
between KANW and KONL. Some isolated showers in the KIML vcty.
Clearing skies behind this precipitation with increasing high clouds
through the day on Tuesday. Southwest low level jet around 2k agl
40kts will create areas of low level wind shear overnight. Strong
southerly flow again on Tuesday with gusty winds.


Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Relative humidity around 10 percent and winds gusting to 35 mph in
the Valentine area is producing critical fire danger conditions. A
Red Flag Warning is in place for this condition.


Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Tuesday for NEZ005-006-008-009-025>027-036>038-057>059-069>071.



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