Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291718
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









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