Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Large upper low appears to be centered just south of Louisville as
per latest water vapor imagery. Not that much moisture underneath
this low, with precipitable waters under an inch, but we do have some
weak scattered showers rotating around the region. Expect the low to
wobble around central Kentucky tonight. The consensus of the global
models and the high-res models show the low drifting into southern
Indiana during the day Friday and then into central Indiana by early

Better moisture being transported up the east side of the state
should rotate around the low during this short term period,
providing some enhancements to rain chances (QUADRANTS?????)

Cloud cover for most of the period should keep temperatures below
normal for highs and a little below normal for lows.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Forecast confidence continuing to increase in the upper low starting
to accelerate northeastward Saturday and Sunday and then stalling
again over the northeast states Monday. That should mean one last
good shot at rain Saturday. A few models linger some rain chances
into Sunday as well though. The GFS even tries to linger it to
Monday, but with very little QPF. As I did yesterday, will maintain
dry pops for now and wait to see how models trend for Monday.

After that ridging is forecast to move across the region, as we get
squeezed in between a low over the Northern Plains and a possible
tropical system off the U.S. East Coast. That should mean dry
conditions and a warm up to above normal for the midweek. Thursday
may stop that warm up though depending on how quickly that low moves
in from the northwest.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper level low is currently sitting and spinning over SDF, with
light showers rotating counter clockwise around all the terminals.
The low will wobble over central Kentucky through the forecast
period, resulting in at best occasional glimpses of VFR
conditions and at worst hours of LIFR ceilings and/or vsbys.

Timing of the rollercoaster of IFR to VFR ceilings will be difficult
due to the spiral-band-like lines of showers shrinking and growing
as they rotate around the upper Low.  The only apparent certainty at
this time is that thunder should not come into play, at least unless
the upper low should happen to wobble westward. While none of the
synoptic or mesoscale models forecast this through 30/18Z, there are
indications this could happen beyond 24 hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
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