Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 200126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
926 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures are generally in the 50s this evening across the region
with a few locations still in the low 60s. The only concern
overnight remains the chance for some patchy fog across the region,
particularly in river valleys. Just minor tweaks were made to
the forecast tonight with regards to fog location and hourly temps.


.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Clear skies and seasonable temperatures prevailed across the lower
Ohio Valley thanks to high pressure centered over the lower

For this evening, plan on pleasant temperatures dropping into the
60s then overnight readings falling into the upper 40 to lower 50s.
An uptick in low-level moisture combined with much lighter winds and
clear skies could lead to patchy fog across the area, especially in
the favored river valley locations.

Pleasant autumn weather will persist through Saturday as an upper
ridge and surface high dominate the weather over the area. Plan on
highs to be in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A slow moving shortwave will approach the area on Sunday and Sunday
night, though there remains some uncertainties in the evolution of
the synoptic features. The 19.12z guidance continues to advertise
that a cut-off low will develop over the southern US, gulf coast
region. There remains some questions on location and speed on that
feature and how much moisture is lifted north into our region.
Leaned on the model consensus which has increasing precipitation
chances Sunday with the highest chances /50 to 70 percent/ Sunday
night into Monday.

Models then do become in better agreement showing a deepening
longwave trough over the central and eastern US bringing much colder
air into the region. Highs will trend below normal with highs on
Wednesday in the lower to middle 50s.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High pressure will remain in control across the region through this
TAF period. Winds will be 3-4 knots or less tonight under the high
pressure. The guidance is still suggesting a good setup for fog
tonight. The densest fog is expected at LEX and BWG where visibility
could drop to LIFR at times. Mainly MVFR fog is more likely at SDF
and HNB. Fog will mix out by mid morning with mostly clear skies for
the remainder of the day tomorrow. Winds will increase to 5-7 knots
through the day out of the south to south-southeast.




Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
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