Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231507 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1007 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1001 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Starting to lose our lift on the western edge of the precipitation
shield as large upper low heads toward the North Carolina coast.
Radar returns over the past hour have begun to fall apart, however
will still carry categorical pops along and east of I-75 for the
next hour or so. A sharp gradient then occurs toward the west, with
a nearly dry forecast along and west of the I-65 corridor for the
remainder of the day. Clouds hang in all day with pretty steady
temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. Gusty NW winds should
also continue through the day, although will lose a bit of magnitude
by the afternoon/evening.

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Upper air analysis reveals powerful upper level low (ULL) over the
Southeastern U.S. That system has brought severe weather to Florida
and several gulf coast states, while keeping our CWA in mainly
overcast and wet conditions. Current radar shows broad band of
showers over eastern parts of the CWA as moisture wraps around the
ULL. These showers will persist through the night, with highest
precipitation amounts occuring in the eastern CWA.

The ULL lifts through the Carolinas and east coast tomorrow
afternoon, and as it pulls away we should see the shower activity
diminish from west to east. Clouds will still linger across the CWA
for the day tomorrow, but begin to clear out Monday evening.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s, with the
coldest readings across western portions of the CWA where skies will
clear first.

By Tuesday, broad ridging will be in place across the Ohio Valley
region. Many areas will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the
lower 50s.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The main weather highlight in the long term continues to be a return
to near normal temperatures later in the work week.

A fast moving, compact low pressure system will track across the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Its accompanying cold front will cross through
southern Indiana and central Kentucky Wednesday afternoon, largely
dry as it`s moisture limited and the better dynamics are displaced
to the northeast.

Soundings across the area continue to show a signal for gusty winds
with the potential to mix down 30 to 35 mph winds Wednesday.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some gusts near 40 mph at times. A few
sprinkles or light showers are possible as the front passes, but
will continue a dry forecast for now. Highs Wednesday will surge
into the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the front, especially
across south central KY and the southern Bluegrass areas.

Cold air advection kicks in Wednesday night through the weekend.
Series of upper level perturbations will drop down out of the Great
Lakes region in the large cyclonic flow. With some moisture present
and saturation partially in the snow growth zone, could see some
flurries develop at times Thursday through Saturday, mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

Temperatures will return to normal to below normal with highs
expected to be in the 30s to low 40s. Morning lows will stay in the
20s with some teens possible this upcoming weekend.


.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

A strong upper low moving east across the Gulf states will provide
us with light rain and gusty winds through the first portion of the
TAF period.

BWG/SDF...Should see light on and off showers through sunrise with
precipitation chances greatly diminishing after sunrise.  The
pressure gradient will be tightest near these TAF sites on the NW
side of the low resulting in northerly winds of 12-18kts gusting to
20-25 kts through the afternoon hours tomorrow.  Flight conditions
should diminish to IFR after sunrise and then improve to MVFR by
this afternoon/evening.

LEX...Should see light rain showers through the morning hours and
then perhaps some lingering showers into the early afternoon.  The
pressure gradient won`t be as tight near LEX but northerly winds
will still gust to around 15-20 kts.  IFR flight conditions are
expected through the remainder of the TAF period.  Some LIFR is
possible but not confident enough to include that in the TAF.




Short Term.....DM
Long Term......ZT
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