Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 250009
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
709 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT

Through tonight...

Convective trends remain the main focus and the main challenge
through the rest of the afternoon. The cool front continues to
advance east and southeast across southwest WI and eastern IA with
the stratus of earlier now more of an open cell cu field. Ahead of
that, another corridor of low level and mid level convergence
generating mid level accas along with newly developing cumulus. A
few echoes have developed with this area across southeast WI, with
more substantial cell moving toward Milwaukee at 1915z. Additional
outflows from morning storms over the lake are likely meandering
across southern Lake Michigan with some indication of one such
boundary oriented from northwest to southeast from offshore of
Waukegan into central Berrien County, MI. Tough to say if this is
the case though. Instability is extreme and maximized over the
forecast area but recent aircraft soundings still show some
capping in place which may be accounting for the rather slow
increase in cell development.

Expect that the cap will erode and isolated-scattered cells will
continue to develop in the cu/accas field across the northwest
third of the area in the next 1-2 hours. High res convective
allowing models have been little help by showing a range of
possibilities from little if anything to aggressive development
and a substantial line of storms moving through. Will continue
with earlier thinking of scattered coverage with potential for
several clusters working east and southeast. With potential for
more complex storm interaction among several boundaries, and being
co-located with the instability gradient, areas from the northern
Chicago metro southward into NW IN may see the greatest coverage,
with more scattered coverage to the south and west. Storm
progression should be more steady than yesterday. Torrential rain
will be one of the primary concerns, along with damaging wind, but
storm progression may help mitigate max rainfall potential.

Convective coverage will translate southeastward as the front
moves through into the evening. The front may slow as it moves
further south and away from the parent surface low over western
Ontario. This may keep pops lingering in the south but suspect
that may be too high with pops overnight in our southern counties.
Relatively drier air/lower dewpoints will steadily spread in from
the northwest overnight but it will still remain mild with lows
around 70 with lower 70s in the Chicago metro.

MDB

&&

.LONG TERM...
230 PM CDT

Monday through Saturday...

A less oppressive air mass that is probably welcome by many
(including us) will move into the area Monday. Dew points are
still forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s but that will
certainly feel less humid. A small chance for a lingering shower
in the southern CWA during mainly Monday morning, but dry
advection aloft will shunt that chance southward by late morning
or early afternoon with a mainly sunny sky to follow. Surface high
pressure will settle in through Monday night with lows in the mid
60s in most areas.

The upper ridge will deamplify though upper level heights will
not substantially drop through Wednesday. Warm and slightly humid
weather should prevail during that stretch, with temperatures a
few degrees above normal. Lake breeze development will be favored
each day.

A buckle in the northern stream jet will occur in the middle of
the U.S. during Wednesday into Thursday. This will cause low
pressure development in the general mid-Mississippi Valley region,
though there is model differences on when and just how fast. Tend
to prefer the slower 24.12Z EC in this situation than the GFS.
Not seeing a signal for any pronounced severe weather setup over
our area with this system at this time. Behind this system
northerly winds look to prevail into the start to next weekend
with temperatures around late July normals.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

709 pm...Line of thunderstorms extends from just east of ord
southwest to near pnt and will continue moving east/southeast this
evening...ending at mdw in the next hour and in a few hours at
gyy. Strong/erratic winds will shift southeasterly behind the
storms for a short time before turning back west/southwest in the
next few hours. Winds will shift northwest behind a cold front
later this evening and remain northwest for the rest of the
period. The gradient will weaken Monday afternoon with a lake
breeze expected but low confidence regarding how far inland it
will move. Possible it will reach ord/mdw by early Monday evening.
Patchy mvfr cigs will be possible this evening. cms

&&

.MARINE...
230 PM CDT

A cool front will turn winds from southwest to northwest over the
lake tonight. A high pressure ridge will then build into the
region Monday night through Wednesday with variable winds at
times over the southern part of the lake. Low pressure is expected
to develop across the mid-Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes region
during Wednesday Night-Friday, though when exactly and what path
is highly uncertain. Some indications there could be fairly stout
northerly winds for summertime (30 kt) on the backside of this,
though that is highly uncertain at this time.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-
     ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
     Sunday.

IN...Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
     Sunday.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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