Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061133 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH EXTENSIVE NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY MID WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING IS LIKELY BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... THREE VERY SIMILAR JUNE LIKE DAYS ON TAP
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTICALLY THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST
OF THE COAST AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER AZ/NV. AT THE SFC MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM A VERY LARGE EAST PAC SFC
HIGH TO A PERSISTENCE THERMAL LOW NEAR YUMA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO REACH DEEP INTO THE VLYS.
CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND ALMOST ALL THE BEACHES WILL
STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SBA SOUTH COAST. WEAK SUNDOWNERS EACH
EVENING WILL KEEP THE NIGHT TIME STRATUS AWAY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE DEEPER THAN NORMAL MARINE LAYER AND THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES. THE MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERTS WILL ALSO COOL A LITTLE EACH
DAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST LOWER HGTS AS IT DOES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THURSDAY IS THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE
NEXT 7. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES.
THE LIFT WITH THIS LOW WILL DRIVE LOW CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR DRIZZLE. RIGHT NOW
THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION JUST AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUILD UPS. ITS STILL EARLY AND
THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MOISTURE
SOURCES.

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROF AND A FOUR CORNERS HIGH. RIGHT NOW
DRY SW FLOW IS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA AND ANY MONSOON ACTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN SBD/RIV COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/1130Z

AT 0827Z THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR CONDS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDS. EXPECT SKIES
TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST...AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
MVFR CONDS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT/TUE MORNING WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS. LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA
COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH LLWS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD STRATUS OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND 02Z TUE.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...

06/330 AM

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME SCA LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THESE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT...AND WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.