Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 011150
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE COAST LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF L.A.
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND BY SUN UP MARINE STRATUS WILL
COVER ALL THE COASTS AND THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ VLYS. LOOK
FOR GOOD CLEARING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT THE CENTRAL COAST
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING. THERE WAS A VERY WEAK TSTM
OVER THE ERN MTNS YDY AND CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ARE JUST A SKOSH
BETTER TODAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE L.A. MTNS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YDY SAVE FOR THE SNS VLY WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES LESS THAN YDYS VERY WARM READINGS. THE
BETTER MARINE LAYER WILL COOL THE BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

STRATUS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND HGTS ARE UNCHANGED.

THE MONSOON FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN
PARTLY CLOUDY (MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER ERN L.A. COUNTY) A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LA MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VLY. BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE
DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT IT WILL ALSO PUSH UP HUMIDITIES SO
IT WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE.

THE MARINE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE WIPED OUT SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIG NEWS IS THE LARGE EASTERLY WAVE THAT ROTATES
THROUGH LA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE MONSOON CONTINUES SUNDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL MOVE WEST INTO
THE VTA MTNS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS
L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
ON MONDAY THE RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE EAST AND A SLIGHT TROF MOVES
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SWITCH THE MONSOON OFF AND
REPLACE IT WITH DRY SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THEN IT LOOKS PRETTY DULL ALL NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK TROF TO THE WEST
WILL INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER. MAX TEMPS INLAND WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR AUGUST MARINE LAYER
WILL KEEP THE COASTS AND VLYS A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

.AVIATION...01/1145Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR CONDS ALONG
CENTRAL COAST 12Z TAFS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR CIGS COULD REACH
KPRB BY 11Z THIS MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CIGS TO SCOUR OUT
+/- 1 HOURS FROM TAF. SIMILAR TIMING FOR STRATUS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH SIMILAR CIG CONDS.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH COASTAL TAFS.
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING WAS AROUND 1400 FT THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TAFS FOR LA
COASTAL TAFS I.E. KLAX/KLGB...WITH IFR CONDS FOR KOXR/KCMA/KSBA. 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR STRATUS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INCREASING  MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION MIGHT CAUSE LOW CLOUD REGIME TO
BECOME CHAOTIC TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF THROUGH 06 THIS EVE...HI
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 15Z-17Z TODAY. LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH RETURN TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THROUGH THIS EVE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN
13Z-15Z TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z SAT
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

01/400 AM PDT

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH RELATIVE LIGHT NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER PZZ673-676...WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS OVER PZZ670. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

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