Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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