Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 261643
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep moist layer with strong onshore flow will continue to
bring plenty of clouds across much of the forecast area through
Saturday. Gusty winds across the Antelope Valley will continue
through this evening. An upper ridge will build in for a couple
days late this weekend into early next week allowing for a brief
warm up and less cloud coverage...especially inland. Another area
of low pressure will move into Southern Cal by mid week bringing
more cool weather through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

Deep marine lyr in excess of 5000` this morning. Had some
drizzle/light rain overnight but not much this morning as the
upper level energy has moved east. It`s going to be another very
slow clearing day, and while there should at least be some peaks
of sunshine temps will remain on the cool side. Still possible we
could see a reverse clearing pattern but given the cloud
development still ongoing near the coast and a surprisingly
strong inversion it`s not looking quite as favorable and at the
very least there`s still going to be plenty of clouds around.

***From previous discussion***

A slight ridge builds in for Saturday and onshore flow will weaken
to moderate levels. The marine layer will be disorganized and the
stratus formation will be a little more haphazard but most of the
coasts and vlys will likely have low (maybe lower is the better
word) clouds by sun up. There will be much better clearing and max
temps will bump up 3 to 6 degree but will remain blo normal.

Sun and Mon are shaping up to be a pair of nice days with a 52 DM
ridge in place. The biggest jump in temps will occur on Sunday
with 8 to 12 degrees of warming likely. Monday will be the warmest
day of the next 7 with another 1 to 2 degrees of warming. Max
temps will be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than normal on Monday. A
typical for this time of year night through morning low cloud
pattern will continue but there will be total clearing by mid to
late morning each day as the onshore push relaxes.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

The EC and the GFS have changed their tune from last nights
forecast and neither forecast a cut off low. Both advertise a
slowly developing weak trof and increasing onshore flow. The
marine layer will increase in coverage and duration. Hgts will
slowly lower. Max temps will cool each day and will dip below
normal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1030Z.

At 1000Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was around 5000 feet deep.
The top of the inversion was 7400 feet with a temperature of 13
degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence for VFR or high MVFR cigs through the next 24
hours. A deep moist layer will persist over the region. 50% chance
for morning drizzle or isolated light rain in the valleys and
foothills of LA/VTU valleys. Vsbys could become IFR in those
conditions. 30% chance for -DZ for coastal areas of LA/VTU through
15z this morning. Low to moderate confidence that clearing along
the coast will occur after 20z while inland TAF sites remain
mostly cloudy. There is a 20% chance that the deep moist layer
could collapse altogether late this afternoon into this evening
and be slow in reorganizing across coast and valleys to coastal
slopes tonight into Sat morning.

KLAX and KBUR...VFR or high MVFR cigs will persist over the next
24 hours. 50% chance that cigs could across LAX could persist
after 20Z today. Higher confidence that KBUR will remain cloudy
all day. Not anticipating any easterly wind issues for KLAX over
the 30 hours.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM.

Confident in below normal wind speeds and seas through tonight.
70 percent chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions
from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island (Outer Waters) on
Saturday, and 100% chance on Sunday and Monday with gusts to 30
KT. Some of the winds will spill into the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel, but likely not enough to warrant a SCA for
the whole channel. These winds will create a short period chop
over all waters including the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa
Monica Basin (Inner Waters).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone
      59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SUN-THU)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Kaplan
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles



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