Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 241752 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
MEXICO AND UTAH HOLDS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...
THE SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST HAS
CLEARED OUT LEAVING ENTIRELY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH TODAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE 7 DAY PERIOD...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO WARM IN SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY GET THERE.  THE
CENTRAL COAST SHOWS THE GREATEST WARMING SO FAR. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE DESERTS TO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND 80S TO 90S
ALONG THE COAST. MOST RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE TODAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FALL. DOWNTOWN LA`S RECORD OF 103 IS
DEFINITELY SAFE. SOME THIN STRATUS IS SNEAKING DOWN THE JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS TIME SO THE IDEA OF OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST ENOUGH TOMORROW TO REDUCE OUR 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES...IN COMBINATION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM OUR SOUTH...TO COOL HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THEN ON SATURDAY.

SOME GUSTY WINDS DID MATERIALIZE ALONG THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST
LAST NIGHT...BUT EXPECT WEAKER SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF MONSOON PUSH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
TO THE ERN SAN GABRIELS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHC OF TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL BE TO THE SE OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.
THEY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

THEN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY A COUPLE DAYS
PAST THAT. THE AIR UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO
THE BEACHES OF L.A. AND MAYBE VENTURA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. AT KSMX
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT OTHER COASTAL SITES.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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