Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 230000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTANT
OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. A HIGH
WILL WARM THE END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ,
LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY
OVER THE MTNS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA AND
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN,
NOT MUCH. LOCALLY BREEZY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTH FLOW BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH SO
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF ERN LA COUNTY. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION FOR A SOLID
MARINE LYR, SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA SO REALLY
NOT MUCH RISK FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY UNLESS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST,
BUT LIKELY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS AND A DELAY IN OUR WARMUP.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SOLID MARINE LYR RETURN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY AND PROBABLY JUST MINIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AT BEST IT`S HARD TO ENVISION MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LYR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (IE. PATCHY/RANDOM).

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE RIDGE BUT ALL AGREE THAT AT LEAST MINOR WARMING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL WARMING TO HELP SUPPORT
A MORE SOLID MARINE LYR, BUT THINGS HAVEN`T GONE OUR WAY IN THAT
DEPARTMENT LATELY SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A LITTLE DRY TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TUE/WED, WHICH LIKELY WON`T DO MUCH OTHER THAN MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO. BY THU, THOUGH, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN
THE 12Z RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS, THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING THU/FRI FOR MUCH BETTER WARMING AND TEMPS
FINALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
CARRY INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2345Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST.
ONCE SUN GOES DOWN...STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH AND TIMING OF
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MARINE
INVERSION. FOR AREAS WHERE CIGS DEVELOP...SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN MVFR
TO VFR CATGEGORY. WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUING STILL A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LA COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD AT KWJF AND KPMD.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND HEIGHT
OF CEILING TONIGHT. WHEN CIGS DEVELOP AT KLAX...MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CATEGORY. STILL A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.


KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS...THEN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  STILL A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
DEEP MOIST LAYER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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