Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
341 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BABARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHALLOW NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...
STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OF THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...BUT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET NEAR KLAX THIS MORNING.
WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DO NOT THINK CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS FALL A BIT TODAY...TEMPS AT 950 MB ACTUALLY EDGE
UPWARD...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRI IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...WHERE BETTER
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING...
ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

STEEPENING N-S GRADIENTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SBA COUNTY
AND THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT S COAST OF
SBA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. THE NLY WINDS COULD
BRING TEMPS BRIEFLY INTO THE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S COAST OF
SBA COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE WRF SHOWS A WEAK EDDY CRCLN
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND WILL PROBABLY SPREAD INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VLY LATE TONIGHT. THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. N OF PT CONCEPTION...NLY GRADIENTS MAY BRING SOME REDUCTION
TO THE LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN SUNDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
DEEPEN A BIT MORE...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST
TUE THROUGH FRI. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO MANY
VLY AREAS AS WELL. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE AND WED WILL
BRING MAX TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THU. THE EC SUGGESTS SOME
WARMING ON FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...30/335 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR PZZ670
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR ZONES PZZ-676 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES VALID
FROM 3 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS..
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION/MARINE...
SYNOPSIS...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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