Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 020027
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST WARMING TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 8 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WARMING 3 TO 6 DEGREES.

A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM WELL OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CAL TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. IT WILL NOT BE THAT AMPLIFIED THEREFORE ALLOWING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN SET UP.
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MODERATE VERY LITTLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. INTERIOR AREAS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE AND ONCE AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
QUITE WARM. BY FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE EURO MODEL BRINGS IN LIGHT RAIN A BIT QUICKER THAN
THE GFS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST...AND SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP S OF POINT CONCEPTION.
BUT WILL MONITOR AS WE MOVE TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME
COOLING FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION BOTH THU/FRI WHILE AREAS TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR COAST AND VALLEYS.
COOLER INLAND.


&&

.AVIATION...02/0025Z...

AT 2330Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 500 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN TO MAKE A RETURN TO
SOME COASTAL SITES (KLGB/KLAX/KSMX) WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND IFR
CIGS. ALSO...LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS AT KPRB LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THIS EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF
CURRENT 12Z FORECAST).

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/1230 PM...

FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

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