Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT
THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW
ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

LOWS U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE
L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY
CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR
SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG
FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS DVLP.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR


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