Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 232347
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will veer to the southwest/west at all terminals this
evening, with gusts to 40-50kt common through 06Z. While winds
will diminish somewhat overnight, expect speeds to increase again
by late Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40kt through Friday
afternoon. MVFR conditions in blowing dust are expected for
several hours this evening, with brief IFR conditions possible.
VFR conditions are expected to return overnight, and prevail
through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible at MAF/FST this
evening, however, uncertainty precludes inclusion at this time,
thus will monitor and amend as necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Update for fire weather watch for Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
High end fire weather conditions along with dry fuels are
promoting a high probability of significant fire potential into
early evening across the warned RF area, in fact an outbreak of
fires is possible. Strong winds will continue through at least
mid evening and RH will be slow to recovery. More critical fire
weather is expected Friday and watch has been issued for all
areas.

A Fire Weather Watch for Friday for all areas combined with todays
fire weather will make for a long duration fire weather event.
The strongest winds (albeit much less than today`s) will likely
occur between 15Z-20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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