Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows dry, NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico this afternoon.  This should transition to zonal thru
Saturday night as an upper trough off the PacNW coast digs south to
CA by 12Z Sunday.  At the sfc, the cold front continues moderating
afternoon highs, which should top out in the 60s most locations.
Overnight, models backdoor a secondary shot of cold air into the
area, for an even cooler day Saturday.  Despite this, main concerns
continue to be fire wx, as moisture return remains non-existent
attm.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details thru Saturday.

Return flow resumes Sunday under zonal flow aloft, and temperatures
rebound to above-normal by Sunday afternoon.  Forecast soundings mix
to above H7 during the afternoon, bringing 40-50kt westerlies to the
sfc in the Guadalupes.  Latest NAM shows a decent mtn wave signature
there Sunday afternoon, so we`ve issued a watch.  W/little moisture
recovery in place, widespread critical fire wx conditions are once
again anticipated.  We considered issuing a watch, but w/2 RFWs in
effect already, to avoid complicating things, we`ll wait until
the next issuance (or the next) to pull the trigger.

Monday and Tuesday are up in the air regarding fire wx.  Flow aloft
gradually transitions to SW by Tuesday afternoon, w/temps remaining
above-normal.  Models had been advertising stronger winds Tuesday
afternoon, but are now hinting at Monday afternoon.  Regardless,
both days look like continuing critical fire wx.  Once models come
into better agreement, specific areas/times can be delineated.

Unfortunately, warm wx comes to an end Tuesday night/Wednesday as a
strong cold front moves through the region, taking temps below normal
Wednesday/Thursday before climbing back to near-normal by Friday.
Grids stay dry, as moisture return remains nil.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures today will be near normal across the northern 2/3rds of
the Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico but above
normal elsewhere.  Minimum RH values this afternoon are expected to
be 15 percent or below across all but the Western Low Rolling
Plains, northeast Permian Basin, and northern portions of Lea
County. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are expected across areas
south and west of the Pecos River, the Guadalupe Mountains,
southeast New Mexico plains, and the far northwest Permian Basin
this afternoon.  These areas are expected to be in very high to
extreme fire danger today and are in a Red Flag Warning into this
evening.  A cold front will backdoor into the area tonight and
tomorrow allowing RH values to improve across the eastern parts of
the area; however, winds will become southerly to southwesterly
Saturday afternoon allowing low RH values to spread across at least
the western half of the CWA. Winds tomorrow afternoon are expected
to be below 20 mph across the area except in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for tomorrow afternoon
across the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  64  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  69  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  68  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          24  66  28  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  64  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         33  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           30  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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