Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 301055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today tonight. Westerly winds will
become gusty this afternoon, but decrease around 01/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  48  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  45  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  50  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  52  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          67  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  37  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  49  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  45  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea
     County-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/



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