Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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978
FXUS66 KMFR 281045
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
345 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...Ridging will keep the area mostly dry today, but the
next system will arrive tonight. Showers are expected to move
into the coast this evening then spread inland to the Cascades
overnight as a weak warm front slides by overhead. With the
moisture upglide along the boundary remaining rather weak, showers
should be light through the night, and snow levels will jump up to
above 8000 feet.

The cold front and the main shot of precipitation will arrive
Wednesday morning. The front will traverse the area from the
northwest to the southeast, and this orientation will keep the
winds from channeling through the normal valleys. The front will
not be a strong wind producer, but as it will be moving rather
slower than normal, it will produce a healthy dose of
precipitation. Snow levels will remain high through the bulk of
the precipitation, but will drop down to about 3000-4000 feet
overnight Wedensday and into Thursday morning on the back side of
the front. By this time, precipitation will transition to showers,
so while brief periods of snow are possible on the higher passes,
no significant snowfall amounts are forecast.

Cold air will pour into the region behind the system, and this
transition will result in gusty northwest winds across the East
Side Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will then be
much colder over the entire region, although not much below
normal for this time of year. Areas of frost will not be out of
the question for the West Side valleys Friday morning, where some
sensitive vegetation may have started spring growth.

Models keep a ridge in place over the area through Friday night,
but diverge quite a bit in regards to when the next system will
arrive, and what track it will take. While it does appear the area
will continue to stay in an active pattern, with a front passing
roughly every 2 to 3 days, confidence is low in any of the
details. Have kept the forecast in place as inherited from Friday
through the remainder of the forecast term. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions are currently being
observed at all METAR locations in the forecast area. This should
remain the case overnight into Tuesday. A front will approach the
forecast area Tuesday evening, and ceilings will lower at the coast
and approach MVFR around 06Z. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Tuesday 28 March 2017...High pressure
will remain over the waters today and seas will be dominated by a
west swell at 12 seconds and another west swell at 18 seconds. Seas
will remain high and steep through Wednesday night...largely due to
a front which will bring increasing southerly winds and steep seas
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind speeds are expected to
reach advisory strength for areas north of Gold Beach. Winds will
decrease Wednesday evening and then veer to the north Wednesday
night into Thursday. Winds may reach advisory strength in the outer
waters south of Gold Beach late Thursday afternoon into Saturday.
Confidence is low in the forecast beginning Saturday and into early
next week with additional storms possible. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/NSK



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