Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 251638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA.  COASTAL AREAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC


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