Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 252139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


Tonight through Wednesday...Forecast confidence high.

Winds will subside by sunset as mixing ceases. A weak shortwave
trough passage will spread some thin cirrus across S WI for the
evening hours. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will
shift ewd across S WI late tnt-Mon AM. Swly winds and warm
advection will then develop and last through Tue while a broad
but low amplitude ridge moves from the central USA to the eastern
USA. Mild temps will occur especially on Tue as a low level
thermal ridge shifts into the region. Upper 40s to lower 50s on
Mon followed by 50s over all of S WI on Tue. 60 degrees could be
possible over far se WI.

For Tue nt, a vorticity maximum will track newd from the central
Great Plains into S WI. A sfc trough and low to mid level
frontogenesis will accompany the feature. Chances for light rain
continued to be forecast. The sfc trough will then move across the
region as a cold front, thus cooler temps for Wed.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

Extended models are still producing strong cyclogenesis and
eventual occlusion from the srn Great Plains to E IA or W IL Wed
nt. The occluded low them moves due ewd across IL, IN, and Ohio
through Thu. The thermal fields are colder suggesting more snow
than earlier thought; however, the GEFS plumes do show
considerable spread. Thus did not commit fully to a substantially
colder solution. More mixed pcpn is in the forecast with better
chances for several inches of snow accumulation toward central WI.
Still a concern for another round of river flooding if mostly rain
falls in far southern and southeast WI.

A narrow and high amplitude upper ridge will build into the region
for the weekend, bringing quiet wx and slightly above normal


.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Gusty swly winds will subside by sunset.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for tonight and


.MARINE...A Gale Warning will continue until 6 PM as gale force
gusts are still occurring. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed
after 6 PM as wind gusts of 22-30 kts could linger through the


LM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday Night through Sunday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.