Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 252139
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Wednesday...Forecast confidence high.

Winds will subside by sunset as mixing ceases. A weak shortwave
trough passage will spread some thin cirrus across S WI for the
evening hours. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will
shift ewd across S WI late tnt-Mon AM. Swly winds and warm
advection will then develop and last through Tue while a broad
but low amplitude ridge moves from the central USA to the eastern
USA. Mild temps will occur especially on Tue as a low level
thermal ridge shifts into the region. Upper 40s to lower 50s on
Mon followed by 50s over all of S WI on Tue. 60 degrees could be
possible over far se WI.

For Tue nt, a vorticity maximum will track newd from the central
Great Plains into S WI. A sfc trough and low to mid level
frontogenesis will accompany the feature. Chances for light rain
continued to be forecast. The sfc trough will then move across the
region as a cold front, thus cooler temps for Wed.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

Extended models are still producing strong cyclogenesis and
eventual occlusion from the srn Great Plains to E IA or W IL Wed
nt. The occluded low them moves due ewd across IL, IN, and Ohio
through Thu. The thermal fields are colder suggesting more snow
than earlier thought; however, the GEFS plumes do show
considerable spread. Thus did not commit fully to a substantially
colder solution. More mixed pcpn is in the forecast with better
chances for several inches of snow accumulation toward central WI.
Still a concern for another round of river flooding if mostly rain
falls in far southern and southeast WI.

A narrow and high amplitude upper ridge will build into the region
for the weekend, bringing quiet wx and slightly above normal
temps.



&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Gusty swly winds will subside by sunset.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for tonight and
Monday.


&&

.MARINE...A Gale Warning will continue until 6 PM as gale force
gusts are still occurring. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed
after 6 PM as wind gusts of 22-30 kts could linger through the
evening.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday Night through Sunday...Gehring


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