Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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886
FXUS64 KMOB 040445 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VFR
CEILING MOSTLY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN TO 10-15
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ADDITIONAL MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OCCURRING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THEN TAPERING OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING.
MADE ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR COASTAL WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER STRETCHING SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE
COAST STRETCHING NORTH TO THE NEAR AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL COULD BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS OF AL AND
NWFL...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH
OF MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA AL. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR WED SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING TO MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH WED DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WED. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW THAT
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER DRY AIR TO THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE...RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. /13

MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED THROUGH FRI DUE TO
GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

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