Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 162326 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...IFR conditions forecast next 24 hrs. Post frontal
high based cirrus streams northeast over the central Gulf coast
this evening. Northerly flow 8 to 12 kts with occasional higher
gusts possible. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...Upper trof that helped bring
heavy periods of rain mostly from thunderstorms late last night
and early this morning will continue to shift east reaching the
eastern seaboard during the day on Tue. To the west and north a
weak mid level short wave tracks east from the central plains to
the mid MS River valley through Tue afternoon with little effect
further south over the northern gulf states. To the west a broad
upper ridge of high pressure stretching from the sw conus to old
Mexico shifts east with the eastern periphery of this system
reaching east Tx and the far western gulf by late Tue afternoon.
At the surface strong high pressure will continue to build east
and south in the wake of the cold front that moved through earlier
today, settling over the Mid Atlantic and SE states by late Tue
afternoon. With this pattern expect much drier/cooler conditions
to continue through Tue afternoon with mostly clear skies tonight
followed by mostly sunny skies during the day on Tue. Surface
winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon and this evening,
diminishing somewhat late this evening and overnight mostly inland
away from the coast. By mid morning Tue surface winds shift
mostly NE mixing down to the surface for most locations in the
forecast area resulting in another cool breezy day for most
location in the forecast area.

As for temps, lows tonight will be near or just below seasonal
averages, ranging from the mid to upper 40s generally over the
northern half of the forecast area and the lower to middle 50s
further south to the immediate coast. Highs Tue will continue to be
near seasonal averages climbing to the mid 70s for most locations
inland, also to south along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A weak upper
trof pattern over the southeast states phases with a longwave trof
advancing across the northeastern states and moves off into the
western Atlantic, followed by a significantly amplifying upper
ridge building into the eastern states Thursday into Thursday
night. A large surface high remains over the eastern states
through the period with northeasterly surface flow continuing over
the forecast area. Precipitable water values of 0.35 to 0.5
inches slowly increase to near 0.7 inches, which is increasing
just to near 65% of seasonable values. With generally modest deep
layer subside and well below seasonable deep layer moisture, will
continue with a dry forecast through the period.  Lows Tuesday
night range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the
coast then gradually moderate by Thursday night to range from mid
50s inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Highs follow a similar
warming trend with mid to upper 70s on Wednesday trending to upper
70s to lower 80s on Thursday. /29

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A longwave ridge shifts
slowly eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend as a
vigorous upper trof advances across the central states, cutting
off an upper low over Texas on Sunday which looks to remain
generally in this position through Monday. The large surface high
over the eastern states shifts into the western Atlantic through
Sunday as a cold front advances across the Plains to near the mid
Mississippi river valley. A surface low may develop on the
southernmost portion of the front late in the period, such as
near the lower Mississippi river valley, which could enhance pops
more than currently forecast. For now, will have mostly small
pops return to the forecast on Saturday mainly for much of
southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama, which trend
to chance to good chance pops for the entire area Sunday night
into Monday. Highs will be mostly in the lower 80s. Lows continue
on a moderating trend with Friday night ranging from the upper
50s inland to the upper 60s at the coast, then by Sunday night
lows inland will be in the mid 60s and near 70 at the coast. /29

MARINE...Expect a moderate to strong northerly wind flow to persist
through tonight shifting northeast and gradually diminishing
somewhat through Tue afternoon. A moderate to occasionally strong
northeast wind flow will then continue Tue night through late in the
week as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic and SE
states through Fri. Seas will climb to 6 to 8 feet well offshore
through late this evening, then subside to 5 to 7 feet by early Tue
morning, and 3 to 4 feet by late Tue afternoon. Seas will continue
to average around 4 feet with the moderate northeast flow through
much of the week. A small craft advisory will remain in effect for
the open gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida out to 60 nm
including the lower end of Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound east of
Pascagoula through 9 AM CDT Tue morning. Small craft should exercise
caution for all other inland bays and sounds also through Tue
morning. 32/ee


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-



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