Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280452
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA HAVE DISSIPATED ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND FINALLY NO
ECHOES ARE NOTED ON AREA RADARS. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FROM FCST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...LOW TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. NO OTHER UPDATES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SFC
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST) BY MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY DIE
QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND REACHING THE AL/NWFL BORDER
STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR WIGGINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINDS
MS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF IS STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING THE
FL BIG BEND REGION AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT.
SILL DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON TUE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE
TO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 104 TO 107 FOR MOST
AREAS TOMORROW THOUGH REMAIN BELOW THE 108 CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO
BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OKALOOSA COUNTY FL
NEAR CRESTVIEW COULD REACH 108 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE MOSTLY
DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER WFOS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN (RELATIVELY) DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THE HEAT TO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER-WISE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING AROUND 105 (GIVE-OR- TAKE). IT`S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AGAIN...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETROGRADING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH
HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO PUSH THE FRONT BRIEFLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE IT WAFFLES BACK
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... IS LOW IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ANY SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS IN OUR REGION.  AS SUCH...I`M
RELUCTANT TO MAKE TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

IF THERE IS AN UP SIDE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES...IT`S LOWER HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEEKND. /02/

MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED WITH THIS PATTERN BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. BETTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE
COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  72  96  75  95 /  05  05  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   96  76  98  78  94 /  05  05  10  10  40
DESTIN      95  79  94  80  93 /  05  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   97  70  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  97  72  98  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CAMDEN      97  71  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   98  70 100  75  97 /  05  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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