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000
FXUS64 KMOB 171624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO PUBLIC AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED PACKAGE TO INCLUDE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG AREA BEACHES. OTHERWISE...TEMP CURVE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN AND HAVE CONCERN FOR WATER PROBLEMS OVER
THE SE-ERN THIRD OF THE FA.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILD CARD FOR THE FORECAST IS SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND HEAD NE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE-ERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS INTO IFR
LEVELS...WITH TEMPS DROPS INTO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$