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000
FXUS64 KMOB 302045
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A cool, dry and stable surface
high pressure ridge will prevail across the forecast area tonight
and Saturday as a large upper level low pressure area continues
to spin over the Ohio Valley. Min temps tonight will be near or even
a few degrees below normal...ranging from the lower 50s over
northern interior counties to the lower 60s at the coast. Max temps
on Saturday at or just above normal with highs generally in the low
to a few mid 80s across the region. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper low over
the Tenn River Valley moves north to the eastern Great Lakes, then
heads east, opening as it moves to over the Jersey coast. A second
closed system dives south, then moves east over the western Conus to
the Rockies, pushing an upper ridge from over the Plains to over/just
east of the Mississippi River. This allows a weak surface ridge to
build over the Appalachians. Several pieces of energy, along with
Matthew moving over the Caribbean help to keep the ridge on the weak
side. Still, the ridge brings a light north to northeasterly flow in
the lower levels and keep a decently dry airmass over the fa through
Monday, until Matthew moving over the Caribbean adds enough of an
easterly component to the low level flow to start pushing Atlantic
moisture westward over the Southeast.

For the forecast, with the decently dry airmass allowing for a larger
than seasonal temperature range combined with increasing subsidence
from the upper ridge moving over the Miss river, temps rise into the
coming week, with daytime highs in the id to upper 80s, overnight
lows rising from the mid 50s to round 60 Saturday night to around 60
to the upper 60s along the coast Monday night.

/16

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The extended part of the
forecast continues to see the medium range guidance diverging in its
handling of the upper pattern over the conus and ultimately,
Matthew. The ECMWF is advertising the upper low moving from over the
Rockies northeastward, with a lobe of energy swinging around the
south, then east side of the system. This flattens the weak ridge
over the eastern Conus, but build a ridge over the south Plains. This
stalls Matthew over the northern Caribbean. This keeps a more
northeast to east flow, bringing in Atlantic moisture and with that,
a warmer wetter forecast.

The GFS on the other hand, advertises a slower eastward progression
of the lobe around the upper low, allowing Matthew to move farther
north along the coast around an upper high situated over the Atlantic
before the the lobe begins to pull Matthew north along the east
coast.

For the forecast, with each guidance consistent in their
interpretation, albeit a bit slower in the GFS than previous runs,
have went with a blended approach to gain some confidence. Temps
remain well above seasonal, but have kept rain over southern parts of
the fa with these areas seeing better easterly, thus moister flow,
then over western parts of the fa as the moisture gets pushed west by
drier air moving in from the north through mid week.

/16

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of surface high pressure which will be centered
north of the coastal waters will drift east across the marine area
through the forecast period (Tonight through Wednesday night). The
prevailing light to moderate offshore flow will become more easterly
and likely increase somewhat by the early to middle part of next
week. Will likely see a diurnal fluctuation in winds near the coast
and over area bays this weekend into early next week...with a more
offshore wind component overnight and a more onshore component
during the afternoons. small sea states (1 foot or less) this
weekend into the early part of next week...increasing some by mid
week (3 to 4 feet well offshore). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   62  83  65  84 /   0   0  10   0
Destin      66  83  66  84 /   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   54  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  55  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      53  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   54  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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