Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 270940
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...HAPPY THANKSGIVING! IT
WILL BE A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND BROUGHT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THAT WILL DEFINITELY ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF WHICH
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THE TRADITIONAL START OF THE CHRISTMAS
SHOPPING SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
AVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING
MOSTLY CALM. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE BY SOME 10 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE COLDER AREAS REMAIN ALONG A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...AND POINTS
EAST...WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S WILL BE FORECAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NORTHERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EASES MORE EASTWARD...SETTING UP FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT HOLDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAYTIME...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THOUGH...NECESSARY FOR RAINFALL REMAINS AT A MINIMUM...SO A
RAINFREE WEEKEND IS MAINTAINED. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE...LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS QUITE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AND COULD VERY WELL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER
IN THE OUTLOOK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS SLIGHTLY...DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
POOL NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE...BEING
LOW (~10%).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...LIFT INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
ON WEDNESDAY. KIND OF SPRING LIKE TO OPEN UP THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NORTH OF
THE COAST...AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE AL/NW FL GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS 42012 AND 42040
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST...BUT DROPPING IN INTENSITY. STILL EXPECT
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE GULF WATERS.
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOBILE BAY/MS SOUND AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. SEAS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 34/JFB


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  33  58  43  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   60  35  58  44  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  38  56  44  65 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   55  30  56  33  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  28  60  37  67 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      53  29  57  34  68 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  30  58  31  69 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$








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