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000
FXUS64 KMOB 300416 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1016 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR CEILING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
DECREASED BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
NEAR 06-08Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 15Z. /29

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOBILE
BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND MADE ACCOMPANYING UPWARDS
ADJUSTMENTS IN THESE AREAS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AND OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT NEAR 06-08Z WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 10Z WITH
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 12 KNOTS...AND INCREASING FURTHER TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 15Z. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S AS A CLOUD DECK FILTERS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY...UPPER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 07/MB

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AND COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SATURDAY HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE
ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOISTENING UP...AND ONLY EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND THE STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL JET (30-35 KT). THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BECOMING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
RAIN CARRIES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...MEANING THAT MONDAY IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THIS SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES (TUESDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY). FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE
IDEA THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ONCE THE TIMING
ISSUES BECOME RESOLVED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE ENSEMBLE SUITES WERE NOT
OF MUCH BENEFIT TODAY AS THEY ARE VERY DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
IN ANY EVENT...THIS SYSTEM DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAIN
TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG POLAR HIGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING FAR BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS
AND WAVES WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  60  34  59  46 /  10  05  00  05  20
PENSACOLA   45  59  38  59  49 /  10  10  00  00  10
DESTIN      47  59  41  58  51 /  20  10  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   42  59  30  59  40 /  20  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  40  57  31  58  42 /  10  05  00  05  20
CAMDEN      40  58  29  58  40 /  20  05  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   43  60  32  61  43 /  20  10  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$