Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 300458
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION [30.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OF VCSH WITHIN THE LOCAL
TAF/S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

UPDATE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW OCCASIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...WE WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST.

INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPDATED SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT THE MODERATE
RISK THROUGH SUNDAY. /21

AVIATION [30.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOWER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA NEAR COASTAL AREAS AS CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE ONLY REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUST KEEP VCTS MENTION IN AT KMOB...KBFM AND KPNS...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NORTHWARD MOVING CONVECTION OVER THE WATER
AND MAKE AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  90  78  92  75 /  40  60  30  30  10
PENSACOLA   79  91  79  92  77 /  40  50  20  30  20
DESTIN      80  90  80  90  79 /  30  40  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   73  93  74  94  72 /  20  60  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  73  90  73  92  71 /  30  70  30  30  10
CAMDEN      73  92  73  94  73 /  20  60  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   76  93  76  94  72 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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