


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
606 FXUS64 KMOB 151811 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 While it will be hot on Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the Gulf as we head into the middle to latter part of the week. The ridge overhead continues to get nudged westward slightly by an inverted trough sliding out of the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The ridge still remains overhead somewhat on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system slides over the Gulf. Hottest day of the week is Tuesday, but it`ll still be toasty on Wednesday. Expect highs to top out in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with the hottest spots in the Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama ( few spots may even hit the century mark for a short period of time late this afternoon). Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria today for the majority of the area with one or two spots along the coast (likely Destin and Gulf Shores) potentially tagging 108 for an hour or so. Meanwhile, looking out into the Gulf, there`s not much to talk about right this second, but that will change as we roll into the middle of the week. An area of low pressure currently off the eastern coast of Florida will trek across the Florida peninsula through the day today and eventually pop out into the Gulf late on Tuesday. Conditions are generally favorable for gradual development (if it remains offshore) and a tropical depression could form somewhere over the northern Gulf at some point on Wednesday or Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether or not this develops into a tropical depression and regarding the eventual track of the system. One potential scenario is that the system moves into the Gulf and remains near the coastline with less time to develop. Another scenario is that this system moves a little further out into the Gulf with more time to develop. Regardless of development, we will get drenched with heavy rain (especially across the southern portion of the area), which may lead to flooding issues if storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Our current forecast has 3- 4 inches of rain across our coastal counties in AL/FL and up into our southern tier of MS counties. That said, high-end rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible (not overly likely, but a possible scenario) in that corridor. In addition to heavy rain, the risk for rip currents quickly increases to a HIGH RISK on at least Thursday and Friday as swell reaches our beaches from this system moving across the Gulf. This means that breakers at the beaches may approach High Surf Advisory criteria. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon, however the chances are not high enough to include in the TAF. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms today. By Wednesday, onshore flow develops as an area of low pressure moves westward across the northern Gulf. If a tropical depression develops in the middle to late part of the week, expect an increase in seas and winds. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 95 74 88 75 88 75 90 / 10 70 50 100 50 90 20 80 Pensacola 78 92 77 88 78 89 79 91 / 30 80 60 90 50 90 20 60 Destin 79 91 80 89 80 87 81 92 / 50 80 60 90 50 80 10 50 Evergreen 74 95 73 91 74 90 73 93 / 20 60 30 80 20 80 10 50 Waynesboro 74 97 73 92 73 88 73 93 / 10 30 30 80 20 90 10 60 Camden 75 95 74 91 73 89 73 91 / 10 40 20 70 10 80 10 50 Crestview 74 93 73 90 75 91 74 94 / 30 90 40 90 30 90 10 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob