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000
FXUS64 KMOB 100934
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF COAST TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THICKNESS
VALUES...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LOWER 70S COASTAL. THE UPPER LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S INLAND TO MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE FCST AREA
(WITH CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES). THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL THEN MOVE EAST AROSS
THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION OFFSHORE...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STILL
WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OFF WEST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA
AS A COLD SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE...BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OVER THE
EAST...WHERE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S. THEN WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE DAY AND LINGERING CLOUDS LATE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST
AND COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BUT
RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. A NEW UPPER TROF DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL EJECT A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WE CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE
FCST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED...COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. WARMING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S AND THEN IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (10.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES LATE TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  56  72  58  70 /  00  20  60  60  20
PENSACOLA   72  56  71  61  73 /  00  10  50  70  20
DESTIN      68  60  68  62  69 /  00  05  40  70  30
EVERGREEN   77  52  76  58  69 /  00  05  40  70  30
WAYNESBORO  76  54  74  57  65 /  00  05  60  60  20
CAMDEN      75  52  78  58  67 /  00  10  40  70  20
CRESTVIEW   78  51  77  60  72 /  00  05  30  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$