Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 290952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS OK/TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE MEAN UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX/TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OTHERWISE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED OCCASIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL
AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE OF
VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE HAS BEEN SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AROUND 8 AM.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX/OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE E/NE TOWARD
THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WHILE MEAN RIDGING
ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEAK VORT CENTER/MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TODAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL WITHIN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOCATED
WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN POCKETS OF MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. OTHERWISE...MORE PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS GENERALLY LOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SOME SHORTWAVEENERGY
ORGANIZING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER ONE GETS TO THE MISS
RIVER. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WEST...LOWER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NEAR/OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...SPC HAS PUT THE FA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...LIMITING ANY
SUPERCELLS...SO WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
OF ANY STORMS THAT DOES BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
SYSTEM...THE CANADIAN TAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST...THE ECMWF MEANDERSIT
EASTWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE GFS ORGANIZES
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST.
LOOKING AT THE QPF OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...PLACEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE CANADIAN DRYING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY
THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE WENT WITH A GFS/CANADIAN BLEND WITH
RESPECT TO CHANCE OF RAIN...MEANING A BIT ABOVE A SEASONAL 20-30%.
FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE AROUND SEASONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND OVER LA. THE ECMWF FOLLOWS THE GFS AND
ORGANIZES AN UPPER LOW...IN THIS CASE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX. BOTH CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
POPS OVER THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A
LAND BREEZE SETS UP. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND SEASONAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MEANDER THE UPPER LOW
EASTWARD...THE ECMWF TO OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE
GFS TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE DAILY INLAND
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
29.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG WILL
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURN AFTER 13-14Z. WE
EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR CONVECTION. IFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS BETTER HEATING OVER LAND INDUCES A
DAILY SEABREEZE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BETTER COVERAGE RETURNS NEXT
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  70  87  68  86 /  40  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  72  87 /  30  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      85  73  85  73  85 /  30  10  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   87  67  90  65  90 /  30  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  86  67  86  65  87 /  40  20  40  30  40
CAMDEN      87  67  87  66  89 /  40  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   89  66  91  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.