Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 272002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Surface high pressure from Hudson Bay southwestward into the Central
Plains will be the prevailing low level weather feature across the
area through the next 30 hours. Aloft, once a weak shortwave trough
swings through the Great Lakes late this afternoon, potentially
producing isolated showers in the WI portion of the WFO MPX coverage
area, deep ridging aligned along the lee side of the Rockies will
spread east tonight through tomorrow. The combination of ridging
aloft and surface high pressure will keep the area dry and mild. The
only cloud cover expected for the region is afternoon mid-level fair
weather cumulus clouds both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will also be on the weak side from the east, less than 10 mph,
and going light/variable overnight. Patchy to areas of fog are
likely to develop overnight once decoupling develops late this
evening, with the fog persisting through daybreak. The lack of
airmass change means nearly identical high temperatures for tomorrow
as what is experienced today, mainly in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

An overall benign long term period is expected as high
pressure/ridging prevails. Near-normal temperatures will prevail,
along with dry weather for the most part.

Other than a small opportunity for precipitation on Saturday night
into Sunday as a shortwave tops the mid level ridge, the weekend
looks dry and mild. Any precipitation would most likely be light
and confined to west central MN, given the surface ridge will be
in place from the Great Lakes into eastern MN.

The other window for precipitation arrives Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a cold front trailing south from a shortwave trough
over northern Manitoba/Ontario moves across the area. With little
in the way of moisture to work with (given northerly low level
flow), any measurable precipitation would be minimal.

After that surface high pressure will build back in, with
continued dry weather expected through the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of any fog
patches early Friday morning, mainly at the usual WI TAF sites. A
few showers may develop late this afternoon northeast of RNH and

KMSP...Wind directions will remain in the 020-050 range through
the rest of this afternoon which may impact runway usage during
the evening rush. Winds to go light and variable overnight through
tomorrow morning then pick up from an easterly direction by midday
tomorrow. Speeds generally around 5 knots or less.

Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
Sun & Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.




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