


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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075 FXUS63 KMPX 152357 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 657 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tomorrow morning. A few severe storms are possible along with the threat of heavy rain. - Much cooler temperatures behind this system will hang around through the end of the week. - Next chance for showers and storms arrives late Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A stalled frontal boundary is draped across central Minnesota early this afternoon. This has been the focus for some sub-severe thunderstorms throughout the morning and this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected over the coming hours as further destabilization continues along and south of the front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin through this evening. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s, allowing for heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. While there is no shortage of CAPE, the shear environment is marginal. This should lead to some fairly unorganized convection with the threat for a few strong to severe storms along with some heavy rain due to slow storm motion. The front will slowly begin to sag southward late this evening through the overnight, with most CAMs showing a line of storms on the leading edge. The front will also work to bring some smoke back to the surface across far west central Minnesota, though this should be short lived. As instability decreases after dark, the focus shifts to more of a heavy rain threat with PWATs approaching 2". An MCV is forecast to move across northern Iowa early tomorrow morning, leading to another uptick in storms across much of central/southern Minnesota and eventually western Wisconsin. Generally, QPF totals through tomorrow range from an inch to an inch and a half, but locally higher amounts of 2-3" aren`t out of the question. Temperatures tomorrow will be some 20-30 degrees cooler behind the front with locales across central Minnesota topping out in the low 60s with mid 70s further south. Rain will gradually taper off by late tomorrow. Thursday and Friday will feature drier conditions and highs in the low to mid 70s. Our next chance of precip is late Friday into early Saturday as a shortwave moves across the region. Highs in the 80s return for the weekend with mostly dry weather expected. A more active pattern is on the horizon with several disturbances tracking across the Upper Midwest with temperatures increasing through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A line of sub-severe storms continues to move through east- central Minnesota and western Wisconsin early this evening. Brief periods of heavy rain leading to lower vis and gusty winds up to 35 knots have been the trend along the line recently. Behind the line, areas will see a lull in the action before another round of more persistent SHRA with pulse-y TSRA. On and off storm chances will last through tomorrow morning, ending from west to east. MVFR/IFR cigs are likely overnight into tomorrow for most terminals. Winds stay out of the N/NE, becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon. KMSP...Our initial round of TSRA came about an hour early, and should clear out of the area by 02z if not sooner. Scattered storms will be possible starting around 05z and lasting through 10z. By then, more persistent SHRA will move in from the southwest with embedded thunder for a few hours during the morning. Rain chances will quickly diminish by tomorrow afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA early morning. Wind SE bcmg N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...BED