Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 241916
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through tomorrow)...Expect some cloud cover to
linger overnight but also with patches of partial clearing across
the area. With lingering clouds and continued southerly flow lows
will be quite mild. Temps will generally be in the upper 40s to low
to mid 50s, which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

High pressure that has been to our east will gradually shift further
east tomorrow in advance of an incoming low pressure system.
Incoming low and high still to our east will further ramp up heights
increasing max temps by another few degrees. Temps in the lower 70s
expected at most locations, which will be around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. This system is rather slow to move in due to the
amount of dry air in place out ahead of it. Will keep areas north of
I-40 dry through the day. By mid afternoon start introducing pops
south of I-40 and slowly increase them through the rest of the
afternoon. Bulk of the precip is expected to move in after this
short-term period. With the tightening pressure gradient expecting
winds to be gusty tomorrow with gusts generally ranging from 10 to
15 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph. Expect party sunny conditions
for the most part, with clouds around the area along with peaks of
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday)...Overall...expect a
rather unsettled weather pattern throughout the extended. While
there are some discrepancies, as expected, between models, they are
in relatively good agreement through about Tuesday. A cold front
will approach the area Saturday night into Sunday.  With weak
instability and decent 850mb winds, there will be a chance for some
thunderstorms overnight Saturday. Daytime heating on Sunday will
help to further destabilize the environment with forecast afternoon
SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and when combined with dewpoints in
the upper 50s and forecast 0-6km shear values of 20-30kts, this
should be enough to trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms. At
this point, SPC has our forecast area outlooked for a marginal risk
of severe storms for Sunday, with the main concerns being isolated
damaging winds and potentially some hail with the strongest
updrafts. This system pulls away from the area Sunday night, but we
will have only a brief break in rain chances before the next system
moves in for Monday/Tuesday.

A weak shortwave will push east from the Great Plains on Monday,
bringing another round of showers and potentially some thunderstorms
to the area. Wednesday and Thursday look like potentially the driest
days of the week, with weak ridging overhead as another system for
late week digs into south-central US and strengthens. A warm frontal
boundary associated with this closed low will approach the area late
Thursday, and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms on
Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  73  57  72 /   0  40 100  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  73  56  71 /   0  10  90  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  73  55  71 /   0  10 100  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  73  51  69 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/EMH


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