Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 120704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WITH A LARGE MIDLEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE SE TODAY...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE FOLLOWED. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER SW NC AND THE SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM
ALSO SHOWS DEVELOPMENT IN SW VA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX.
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE AS CAPPED AS YESTERDAY. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.

THE NAM SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR LATE MONDAY. ALSO...ENOUGH HAIL
CAPE AND FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS FOR LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE WITH
PLEASANT AIRMASS FOR JULY OVER THE AREA. RETURN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  69  91  71 /  10  10  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  68  92  71 /  10  10  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              90  64  90  66 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/DH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.