Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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947
FXUS64 KMRX 090811
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING BROAD UPPER TROUGH...BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY LIKELY
TO SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH BY SUNRISE. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SW VIRGINIA
AND FAR NE TENNESSEE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE STEADY
MODERATE SNOW BANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WELL INTO DAY
TODAY...RESULTING IN GREATER ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS /WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT/. UNDERNEATH THE BANDS...LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE SUBFREEZING SURFACES. THUS...ANY
UNTREATED ROADS COULD BE SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE EVENING. THANKS TO
AN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AND THUS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE WSW
THERE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HALF INCH TO PERHAPS INCH IN SOME SPOTS
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEY TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH
THAT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE...MAKE FOR SOME DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THOSE ZONES OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COMING TO AN END AND
CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING.

FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS AGREE THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMITED EFFECTS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES RETURNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  ECMWF SEEMS TO BE STRONGER OF THE
MODELS. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LOW...AND
WILL FOLLOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  21  33  20 /  40  30  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  19  29  17 /  70  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       32  20  29  17 /  70  40  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  18  25  13 /  70  50  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-
     HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP/DH



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