Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
420 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND COLD
FRONT HAS HELPED TO DISSIPATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIFT CLOUD
LAYER SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...STILL AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE NOTED UPSTREAM ON AREA RADARS. BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
NOTED LATER TODAY AS WELL. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR TODAY
ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS...NE TN AND SW VA.

MOISTURE UP TO AT LEAST 700 MBS LINGERS UP TO AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...SO KEPT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EARLY TUESDAY COULD SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF NE TN AND SW VA TUESDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY EARLY
TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TUESDAY. BUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DAYS WILL BE BE
BELOW NORMAL AS COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW. MODELS STILL NOT SURE ON TIMING WITH NEXT SYSTEM. GFS AND
CANADIAN WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF
SLOWING SYSTEM TO MOISTEN ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY. SOME SNOW OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD LIKELY START PRECIPITATION LATER
FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH WARMING FOR IT TO BEGIN AS
RAIN. STRONG SW FLOW TO GET GOING FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE TX GULF COAST MOVES NE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES STAY COOL FRIDAY AS SKIES BECOME
CLOUDY AND THEN WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARMER AIR
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF COAST WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  39  50  30 /  40  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  49  37  47  27 /  60  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  36  47  27 /  30  30  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              47  37  44  24 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD


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