Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 272037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Today will be a breezy day with warm temperatures in
the 80s for most western Montana valleys and into the 90s for deep
valleys in the Camas Prairie of Idaho. Sustained west and
southwest winds in the teens and 20s will be the norm, with gusts
in the high 20s to around 30 mph. These dry, breezy conditions
will continue until around sunset this evening. Along the Canadian
border there could be isolated showers, but little rainfall is
forecast.

The trough passing north of the area will cause temperatures to
cool a few degrees for Sunday. But by Monday and Tuesday, a ridge
of high pressure to our east with southwest flow over the Northern
Rockies will lead to very warm temperatures and low humidity.
Even overnight readings on midslopes and ridges will be warm. This
is also a good pattern for thunderstorms, although this potential
will depend on the timing of shortwave troughs. Models don`t show
any consistency on these yet, leading to low confidence in
thunderstorm timing.

By mid to late next week, a trough over the Pacific Northwest
begins pushing east, cooling temperatures by a few degrees each
day. Latest model runs disagree on how far east this trough will
push, with some showing a cooler, wetter pattern. But there is
very low confidence in this change given the high amount of model
inconsistency.

&&

.AVIATION...A dry cold front is moving across the region this
afternoon causing an increase in clouds and gusty southwest to
west winds. The warm, dry, windy weather may enhance fire
activity in the area resulting in a smoky or hazy air mass.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening Palouse/Hells
     Canyon.

&&

$$


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