Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 292110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
310 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover continues to increase across Montana and
Idaho this afternoon. But instability seems to be lacking and thus
only light showers/sprinkles have developed thus far. A few
stronger showers and/or thunderstorms remain possible over Lemhi
Co. & SW Montana through this evening. Though it`s appearing less
and less likely for anything widespread to develop as cloud cover
continues to thicken. Scattered light showers will continue
overnight across much of the area, but amount to little if
anything being felt on the ground. A brief period of clearing may
be possible during the middle of the night and could provide some
possible Aurora viewing tonight. Though it doesn`t look like we`ll
be completely clear at any point.

The atmosphere may become a bit more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms on Friday, though the presence of cloud cover
daybreak on should limit the potential for anything too strong.
Widespread showers are expected on Saturday as a cold front
approaches Idaho and Montana during the morning. Periods of more
intense precipitation may be possible, especially during the
afternoon when the atmosphere is most unstable. Additionally, those
with plans to be outside should also prepare for some gusty winds
as the front moves through the Northern Rockies. This could also
produce some choppy conditions on area lakes.

Models on Sunday become a bit more challenging to decipher,
largely due to issues resolving both Hurricane Matthew and the
closed low stuck near the upper Ohio River Valley. So will
maintain climatological chances for precipitation on Sunday and
Monday favoring an ECMWF path for the west coast upper low
progression into the Northern Rockies until further clarity is

The rest of next week will fall appears to fall under broad,
northwest flow aloft with an unseasonably strong Pacific jet
stream diving south into the Great Basin. This will maintain
seasonably cool, breezy and showery conditions each day.


.AVIATION...Light showers are likely at all airfields across
Montana and Idaho. However KTBM and KSMN have the best chance to
see possible thunderstorms capable of brief gusts to 25 mph. Area
terrain may be occasionally obscured by passing showers.



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