Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 311010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
410 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions are occurring across the
Northern Rockies as the anticipated ridge of high pressure has now
positioned itself comfortably over the region. Hot, near-record
high temperatures will occur the next 3 days across the entire
region. Many lower valley locations in central Idaho will be well
into the triple digits each day. In western Montana, expect upper
90s to near 100 degrees in the lower valleys of northwest Montana
and parts of west central Montana, including the Bitterroot and
Missoula Valleys.

A little bit of monsoon moisture starts to creep its way into
central Idaho and southwest Montana Sunday night, which then
spreads northward Monday and Monday night. Given the very dry
atmosphere that will occur at lower levels this weekend, we expect
storms to initially contain little rainfall Sunday night into
parts of Monday. Lightning could become a problem for potential
wildfire starts during this time. By late Monday afternoon, the
atmosphere will have moistened up enough for some rain to finally
fall with storms.

Tuesday through Friday...Several short waves of energy will eject from
an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. This instability,
plus moisture being drawn in from the southwest, will produce
periods of thunderstorms each day and possibly overnight as well.
Confidence is moderate to high for this solution, however: it
lowers drastically when trying to decide the amount of coverage
and intensity of these storms. Stay tuned, as next week could be
pretty active. All of this considered, storms will certainly
increase the amount of lightning output in the region, and could
pose a risk for fire weather concerns once again across Idaho and


.AVIATION....Clear skies and light diurnal afternoon/evening
winds are once again expected today and tonight for all area
terminals under persistent high pressure.



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