Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 031740
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE
TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA THE NEXT 48 HRS. IN ADDITION TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...MUCAPES 4000-5000 J/KG...PCPN EFFICIENCY WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE OVER THE REGION GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH AS
WELL AS AN OPEN GULF PROVIDING ABUNDANT DEEP LYR ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES. BUT
AS SUSPECTED...NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS
TO TOTAL AMOUNT PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...DID NOTICE THAT SIMILAR TO
THE 00Z/02 NAM12...THE 00Z/03 RUN IS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE THAT
THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER.
NEVERTHELESS...FOR NOW FEEL BEST STRATEGY IS TO JUST INTERPOLATE
BTWN THE VARIOUS QPF PROGS TO DETERMINE AMOUNT TOTALS OVER THE
CWA.

CONCERNING SVR TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN/EVENING...MODELS PROG
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
EXTENDING INTO NRN IA. WHEN CAPPING FINALLY BREAKS...NAM12 SHOWING
AFTN INITIATION ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES//O-3KM CAPES
4000J/KG...EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO ABOUT N-CNTRL NEB. NAM12/GFS ARE
DIFFERING JUST A BIT IN RELATION TO WHERE SVR TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WITH THE GFS FOCUSING THE THREAT OVER CNTRL NEB WHERE
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. NAM12 ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING
BEST DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND INVOF THE SRN CWA.

NOTE...HIRES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH SUGGESTING
CONVECTION WILL NOT FIRE UNTIL SOMETIME BTWN 00Z-03Z WHEN THE BNDRY
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
HANDLING ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS END UP BEING RIGHT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS MORNINGS 12Z RUN HANDLES ALL THIS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ECM/GFS/CMC IN AGREEMENT PCPN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS
FILTERING IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/CMC
SHOW REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ALONG AN INSTABILITY
AXIS/BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG SETTING UP ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER.
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK AND KOMA BY 20Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 03Z. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. KLNK LOOKS TO
HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STORMS STARTING
03Z-06Z THEN EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z. KOMA AND KOFK MAY SEE STORMS
AFTER 06Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT


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