Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011215
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
715 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS WHEN/IF TO INCLUDE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD A LITTLE EWD BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS TO
THE FA. WITH MOISTURE ON MODEST SIDE...IT WOULD APPEAR ANY PRECIP
CHANCE WOULD BE SMALL AND COVERAGE LIKELY NOT VERY WIDESPREAD.
TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROBABLY A MAJOR PLAYER
BUT HARD TO TIME AND MODEL QPF PLACEMENT WAS NOT VERY UNIFORM
AMONG THEMSELVES. THAT SAID...DEPARTING SUBTLE WAVE OVER SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS AFTN WHICH COULD AID IN SOME REGENERATION WITH HEATING AND A
SLGT CHC WAS MENTIONED THERE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR
OR NW OF NWRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN PER UPSTREAM WAVE IN OVERNIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ANY OF THIS PRECIP DRIFTING SE IN UPPER
FLOW. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MORNING SLGT CHC POPS FAR SERN ZONES AS
WEAK ACTIVITY HAD CONTINUED TO REFORM UPSTREAM THROUGH 0730Z.

AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EWD...AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
COULD ALSO BEGIN DRIFTING E THROUGH FA IN SAT-SUN PERIOD. BESIDES
BRINGING A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WEAK BOUNDARY COULD ALSO
BRING ADDITIONAL SMALL TSTM CHANCES TO THE FA. FOR NOW LIMITED
SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN ZONE SAT AFTN AND THEN CNTRL/N SAT EVENING.
SUNDAY WAS LEFT DRY FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF NAM/ECMWF
WOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SOME THEIR GENERATION OF PRECIP NEAR
THIS ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT PER BOTH OR ALONG A TRAILING WEAK
WIND SHIFT PER NAM.

KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SOME
90S...MAINLY LOWER AT THIS TIME...BEGIN SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DWPTS AND WARMER DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO END
STRING OF 50S SEEN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE
NORMALLY COOLER LOCALS COULD STILL SEE SOME UPPER 50S YET SAT AM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS WARM AND PROBABLY MOSTLY DRY AS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
HAVE SHIFTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY MONDAY. AFTER THAT RIDGE WAS
ADVERTISED TO BEGIN FLATTENING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS EWD
ACROSS PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO FA...GENERALLY CENTERED ON THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE...LEFT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DRY. SMALL CHANCES WERE SEEN NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ALLOWING WEAK BOUNDARY INTO
THAT REGION...WITH MODEST CHC POPS THEN OVERSPREADING FA TUE
NIGHT N...ALL AREAS WED AND SOUTH WED NIGHT. SMALL POPS WERE
LINGERED SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

MORE 90S SEEN LIKELY MONDAY AND CNTRL/S ON TUESDAY BEFORE READINGS
COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AS CLOUDS/PRECIP/FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

RATHER WEAK FLOW PATTERN INDICATED AT THE SURFACE DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MAIN IMPACT COMING FROM WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 09Z PRODUCING POCKETS OF IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT



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