Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 231756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update for today: Main message is the threat for strong to
severe storms across the eastern third of WA and Nrn ID while
heavy rains brings a risk for flash flooding/mudslides over burn
scars in the Cascades. SPC has spread the slight risk into much of
eastern WA and Nrn ID and a watch is not out of the question.
Areas of Ern WA and Nrn ID are experiencing sunny skies at this
hour which is going to allow the environment to reach potential
instability parameters via the model guidance. A much tougher call
for central WA given the pronounced cloudiness. Thunder is still
likely but whether instability can incr enough to support severe
storms is not as promising.

Meanwhile, embedded vort maximums tracking ahead of the main front
is enhancing convection along and mainly west of the Cascade
Crest with very impressive rates of upwards of 0.50"/hour under
the strongest cores. One wave passing through southern Chelan
County at this hour and peeling off to the N/NW. Activity with
this cluster is not as intense as observed with cores upstream
with 1 hour amounts generally in the 0.05-0.15" range, but
isolated lightning strikes have been observed and the potential
for strengthening is there given the instability noted on forecast
soundings and how intense some of the convection was in Seattle`s
area this morning. Things are likely to shift east over the
course of the next 1-3 hours as the upper-low comes east and
spreads the training moisture and rain into the East Slopes. Flash
flood watches in effect. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast will shift move inland over
the next 24 hours. Widespread rain...heavy at times will be near
KEAT with embedded lightning strikes. Stronger storms expected to
develop in the Basin and track east toward the WA/ID border arnd
00z bringing the potential for damaging winds, hail, and heavy
downpours. Gusty winds will follow in the wake of cold front
passage late afternoon and into the overnight periods. Lingering
showers over the northern mountains for Thursday but all TAF sites
dry out overnight.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  60  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  80  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for East Slopes Northern
     Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



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