Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 061715 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE TO KEEP IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT IS REDUCED BY THE CLOUD COVER WHICH
WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
18Z/7TH.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 6000-10,000 FEET AGL TONIGHT.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDLS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT
BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.  WINDS WILL BE 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IS NOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE CWA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOSTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFTING. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND AMPLIFY WITH A CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE CWA. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH WARMER 850
MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PRECIPITATION AFTER TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THEN THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...SLOW
AT FIRST BEGINNING MONDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF
FOG SEASON AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS/BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. IN AREAS WHERE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DO DEVELOP
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...THIS THE WARMING TREND WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXCEPT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
ON MONDAY UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A VERY EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK IF NOT
LONGER. THE ECMWF MODEL BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AROUND THURSDAY BUT
THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER. THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE WEAKNESS OF THE INCOMING SYSTEMS AND THE STOUTNESS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY NEXT WEEKEND. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  34  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  48  33 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  53  33  47  34 /   0   0  10   0
YKM  48  32  47  31 /  10   0  10   0
HRI  53  33  47  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  29  41  29 /  10   0  10   0
RDM  51  33  53  30 /   0  10  10   0
LGD  45  30  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
GCD  45  29  46  27 /  10  10  10   0
DLS  53  36  51  36 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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