Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 210258 CCA
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
858 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture made a stronger push last night
than anticipated. As a result, we`ve had storms over the Snake
Plain into the Magic Valley today. A front is moving through the
region this afternoon. Thunderstorms will gradually move off to
the east with the front this evening. Could see a stray storm
remain over the extreme southeast corner late tonight into early
Friday morning. Otherwise, drier air will work back into the
region providing dry weather through the weekend. Looks like
monsoonal moisture returns to the area next week. This will
produce a threat for storms just about every day next week.
Valle
&&

.AVIATION...Models have done an extremely poor job handling
shower and t-storm activity so far today across the region. Based
aviation forecast for this afternoon largely on radar and
satellite trends, blending toward model guidance early this eve
and tonight. Expecting t-storms to continue for the next several
hours near KPIH/KIDA, and through early eve near KDIJ, while
KSUN/KBYI remain dry. Coverage should remain isolated to
scattered, and do not have confidence on timing/coverage to go
higher than VCTS. As usual, the strongest cells could produce
gusty/erratic outflow winds and some hail. Otherwise, expecting
VFR conditions at all terminals through tonight and throughout
Fri. Winds this afternoon will be a bit gusty outside of t-storm
activity as reflected in the TAFs. KSmith/Valle
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Update this evening to expire the red flag
warning as conditions have improved across the area. See previous
discussion below. Huston

Red flag warnings remain in effect until 9 pm for elevations below
6000 feet in zone 476 as well as zone 410 for wind gusts and low
humidity. Thudnerstorms occurring along cold front and expect
isolated storms late this afternoon and early evening mainly in
zones 411 and 413. Expect more docile conditions Friday with wind
gusts expected to stay under warning criteria and no thunderstorms
expected.  Upper ridge builds over Idaho Saturday with hot and dry
conditions expected with light winds.  Expect a pattern change
Monday with monsoonal moisture returning ahead of an approaching
trof with showers and thunderstorms possible Monday through Thursday
of next week. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$


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