Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 280837
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY
ASSUMING ITS FULL DOMINANCE TODAY. MUCH DRIER AIR...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIGHT AROUND 0.50 INCH. AIR IS ALSO MORE STABLE
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...EXCEPT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
ALONG THE BORDER WITH LEMHI COUNTY AND MONTANA THAT WILL NEED SOME
MONITORING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED A LITTLE TONIGHT
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND IT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO MEAN A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONTANA-IDAHO BORDER REGION.
GFS AND NAM ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE STRENGTH...BUT THE 29/06Z NAM IS
TRENDING WEAKER COMPARED TO THE 29/00Z...SO HAVE NOT BOUGHT OFF ON
THE ENTIRE NAM SOLUTION AND HAVE BIASED TOWARDS THE MUCH DRIER
GFS. ON FRI...NAM CONTINUES TO WANT TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS...THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THEN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. GFS CONTINUES
TO BE VERY DRY. HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
NOW...SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. A STRONGER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED IN BOTH GFS AND NAM ON FRI NIGHT/SAT...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR A LIKELY LAKE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND PERIODS. EXPECT CLEARING LATE SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT. WITH FRONTAL AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO LAST FOR A
FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPATATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD MEAN
BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP UNDER THE CLEARER SKIES...BUT NOT
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL WED. TEMPERATURES IN THE STANLEY BASIN WILL
APPROACH FREEZING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THUS WILL HAVE TO BEGIN THE
WATCH FOR SNOW LEVELS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
POPS AT KSNT. 500MB LONG WAVE FORECAST IS FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES/WESTERN CANADA WITH THE
STORM TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE US-CANADA BORDER. SO THE
TROUGHING ISNT FAR AWAY AND COULD EXPECT SOME STRONG DAY TO DAY
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD FORECAST. BUT RIGHT NOW...APPEARS TO BE
DRY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST TODAY WILL FLATTEN AS A
MINOR TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW. THIS TROF IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY IMPACTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS... AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO IDAHO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONG ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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